Detroit Lions mailbag: Should they trade Kenny Golladay if contract extension not coming?

Detroit Free Press

Dave Birkett
 
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All is quiet on the Kenny Golladay contract front, and frankly, the longer this thing drags out, the less likely Golladay and the Detroit Lions are to strike a deal.

I got a couple questions about Golladay’s contract and the Lions shedding him in a potential November trade for this week’s mailbag, so I figured I’d address those off the top.

Golladay was optimistic, both publicly and privately, about signing a long-term deal with the Lions earlier this summer, and I don’t have great answers on what the holdup has been. Golladay missed time with a hamstring injury and his agent changed firms, so it’s possible those played a role. But the bottom line with these things is usually money, so that’s where I’ll start.

The franchise tag for wide receivers in 2020 was $17.865 million, and should be there or higher next spring. If you think Golladay is a player worth tagging — and I do — it’s reasonable to think that’s where negotiations should begin.

Players tend to look for the average of two tags, which in Golladay’s case would be $19.65 million (the 2020 tag number, ignoring inflation, plus a 20% raise for 2022 to $21.438 million).

Contract negotiators on both sides can usually find some middle ground on money or structure or both, but the closer the player gets to free agency — Golladay will be an unrestricted free agent in March, absent a deal — the less likely he is to take a discount. Golladay already has shouldered the risk of 25% of the season, and the chances of him not getting a big pay day in free agency drop every week.

If the Lions are willing to pay Golladay market rate, they better do it soon before that rate risers. If they’re not, I find it hard to believe they won’t at least franchise him in March, given the state of their receiving corps and Golladay’s own ability.

That’s why I don’t see the Lions trading him at next month’s deadline, even if things go south in the coming weeks. This is not a Golden Tate scenario, where the Lions will lose the player with no return. The tag still affords the Lions control over Golladay in 2021. And that’s why I continue to believe a deal will get done.

All right, on to your non-Golladay questions, and I’ll bet you know where most of them are headed.

Houston fired Bill O’Brien. Why aren’t the Lions following suit and firing Quinn and Patricia this week? Aren’t they all cut from the same cloth? — @spleen95shortbr

So many questions this week, and so many of them about the future of Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn.

Patricia and Quinn are 100% on the hot seat right now, but I don’t think much gets accomplished by cleaning house this early in the season. Shelia Ford Hamp thought enough of Patricia to give him a third year on the job, and with 12 games left it’s premature to judge how that year will go.

I get why fans want a change, and I get how frustrating it is to see a playoff team from last year — a team that was up 24-0 on the eventual Super Bowl champs in a January playoff game — drop the hammer on its head coach while the underachieving Lions stand pat.

Certainly, there are similarities between O’Brien’s time in Houston and what’s gone on in Detroit under Patricia and Quinn. All three men have deep New England Patriots ties, both Patricia and O’Brien took tough-guy approaches that rubbed people the wrong way, and both the Lions and Texans have run off some of their best players in recent years (Jadeveon Clowney and DeAndre Hopkins in Houston, Darius Slay and Quandre Diggs in Detroit). 

But similarities aside, Patricia and Quinn should be judged on their own merits when the time comes for Hamp to evaluate their futures. Simply, have they done enough in their time here to move the franchise forward, and how confident is she that they can make this program a perennial winner in the NFL? The early returns are not promising, but the book is not yet closed.

Who is SFH going to turn to for advice if she has to hire a new GM? Hopefully not Ernie Accorsi. — @pfnnewmedia

I wrote about Accorsi’s, shall we say, less-than-thorough approach to the last general manager search earlier this week. To be clear, the Lions are the ones who set the parameters for the search and did not have the controls in place to ensure it was as meticulous as it needed to be. But I get why they used Accorsi and, given the newness of everyone involved in the NFL at the time, do think it was the right thing to do.

The next time the Lions decide to make a change at general manager, whether that’s after this season or at some point down the road, Hamp and team president Rod Wood should be versed enough in the NFL to run their own search by using their own league contacts to unearth a wide variety of qualified candidates. Having been intimately involved in the league for going on seven years now, they should have a better understanding of what works and what doesn’t and why.

That doesn’t ensure their next move will be the right one, but in charting the ultimate course for the franchise, there’s no need to follow someone else’s lead.

Is it time to free Matt Stafford? — @bs09090

Ah, the third leg of the decision that awaits this franchise. I wrote a few weeks back that we are approaching the biggest crossroads since the end of Matt Millen era, and that includes Matthew Stafford’s future at quarterback.

If the Lions turn this season around, that probably means Stafford played well over the final 12 games, and if that’s the case, I can’t imagine them embarking on a rebuild in 2021 with a new quarterback. If they don’t, then Stafford’s future absolutely should come into play.

[ Stafford hasn’t been sharp, but he hasn’t had much help, either ]

Ultimately, that decision will fall on Quinn and Patricia, or whoever is holding their seats next year. Stafford has enough of a career in front of him that he’s still going to win a lot of games, but if the Lions do a hard reset, they might be better off going in a different direction and Stafford might benefit from his own fresh start, too.

You have the 2nd pick…. Fields/Sewell or other? — @AutumSteven

This sort of ties into the last question. If the Lions are picking second in the draft, then there’s a pretty high likelihood this season spiraled out of control. If that’s the case, we’re probably talking about a new regime, and at that point it’s probably best to start a rebuild by drafting Justin Fields or Trey Lance or whoever your No. 2-ranked quarterback is (because Trevor Lawrence is going No. 1).

Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell is a top-five talent, but the Lions just signed Taylor Decker to a $60 million extension so I’m not sure he’d be the right pick for the Lions. LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase is a future star and the Lions desperately need help at receiver, and there’s bound to be a big-time defensive player that would look good in Honolulu blue, too.

In all honesty, though, I think it’s highly unlikely the Lions are anywhere near the No. 2 pick conversation. By the time they’re on the clock, I suspect both Fields and Sewell will be long gone.

Any chance we can get Trevor Lawrence? — @RajivVarma

Have you seen the Jets and Giants play?

I might not mind Bill O’Brien as Lions next coach if he’s not GM also. And he could start immediately. — @CpkGeo

This is a joke, right?

If the Chiefs called the Lions and offered Patrick Mahomes for Jack Fox, should the Lions make the deal? Or should the Lions make the Chiefs throw in some draft picks too? — @31_jlp

Multiple draft picks. In all honesty, Fox has been quite the find for the Lions this season. His 49.9 net punting average would be an NFL record if it holds up, and he’s a big reason why the Lions have been so solid on special teams. Funny enough, Fox signed with the Chiefs last year as an undrafted free agent, and Kansas City debated long and hard about keeping him on its 53-man roster.

When I mentioned on Twitter that Robert Tonyan, the Green Bay Packers tight end who caught three touchdowns Monday night, started his career as undrafted free agent with the Lions, plenty of people suggested the Lions whiffed by letting him go. Maybe so, but it happens to every franchise, even the Super Bowl champs, because players develop at different speeds and teams have different roster needs.

Was losing Glasgow, and paying Vatai a smart money move? Are we really paying a guy RT money, to be a guard? We could have paid Glasgow and kept Crosby at RT. — @JWhiteGoLions

I was lukewarm on the Vaitai signing this spring, partly for the reason you mentioned. Glasgow was a good player who was underrated by this regime because of the position he played, and now Vaitai is making essentially the same money to play the same position. 

I don’t know if the Lions will keep him at guard and Crosby at tackle when Joe Dahl returns, but I won’t be surprised if that happens. If we look past the money, though, Vaitai can be a solid player for this team, and his position flexibility at guard and right tackle — like Glasgow’s at play guard and center — is a plus. The Lions are playing well on the offensive line right now, so however it worked out, it’s a move I can live with.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett. The Free Press has started a new digital subscription model. Here’s how you can gain access to our most exclusive Lions content. 

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