When Las Vegas set the Detroit Lions’ win total for the 2021 season at 5 to 5 1/2 games, I immediately found myself thinking the Lions would go over that total.
They’d get a bounce from having a first-year head coach in Dan Campbell, and Jared Goff is a good enough quarterback to help keep the team competitive in a tough schedule.
Well, sitting down to do my early game-by-game predictions Wednesday, wins were tougher to find than I thought.
Perhaps this changes by September — it probably will, since the Lions haven’t even had an on-field workout for Campbell — but for now, I think Vegas is pretty spot on with its line.
DAVE BIRKETT’S ANALYSIS: A tough opener, one primetime game and lots of playoff teams
Here are my game-by-game predictions for the Lions’ 2021 season, which begins on Sunday, Sept. 12.
Week 1: Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Goff gets to face a familiar foe in his Lions debut, but unfortunately for him, it’s one he has a losing record against in his career. Pick: 49ers 31, Lions 20.
Week 2: Lions at Green Bay Packers
(Monday night): Even if the Packers trade Aaron Rodgers, winning in Green Bay… on Monday Night Footbal… in the Packers’ home opener… is a tough ask. Pick: Packers 28, Lions 21.
Week 3: Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens
Over-under for Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards: 95. Pick: Ravens 33, Lions 24.
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Week 4: Lions at Chicago Bears
We’re still early enough in the season here that the Bears could be starting Andy Dalton at quarterback, or could be dealing with some Justin Fields growing pains. I don’t think much of the Bears either way, so I’m making this Campbell’s first win. Pick: Lions 21, Bears 17.
Week 5: Lions at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have routinely made life tough on the Lions because of their pass rush. It will take time for the Lions’ offensive line to jell, but one day that won’t be as big of an issue. Pick: Vikings 23, Lions 20.
Week 6: Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Is it wrong for me to think that the Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow at QB, will actually be decent this year? Pick: Bengals 26, Lions 24.
Week 7: Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Both Goff and Matthew Stafford should be gassed up for this game, but only one of those quarterbacks is surrounded by a playoff-caliber roster. Pick: Rams 35, Lions 21.
Week 8: Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Houston Texans are the early favorites for the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft, but don’t count out the Eagles. Oh, and two sacks for Alim McNeill. Pick: Lions 31, Eagles 28.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben’s last season in Pittsburgh might turn out to be an abomination. Pick: Lions 23, Steelers 20.
Week 11: Lions at Cleveland Browns
A second straight road game against a good — and unfamiliar — AFC North team seems like a recipe for disaster. Pick: Browns 31, Lions 17.
Week 12: Lions vs. Chicago Bears
I’m all for the Lions playing on Thanksgiving from now till the end of time, but there can’t be that much of a clamoring for Lions-Bears in the early Thanksgiving window for the third time in four seasons. Pick: Bears 27, Lions 21.
Week 13: Lions vs. Vikings
I’ve got the Lions winning two NFC North games this fall, which is one shy of how many the Lions won in three seasons with Matt Patricia. Pick: Lions 20, Vikings 17.
Week 14: Lions at Denver Broncos
On the slim chance the Packers trade Rodgers to Denver before the season, I reserve the right to change my mind on this one. Pick: Lions 24, Broncos 17.
Week 15: Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals
I’m going to miss my annual trip to Arizona this fall, but at least the Lions and Cardinals play for what seems like the 12th straight year. Pick: Cardinals 27, Lions 24.
[ Lions have the all-time edge over the Cardinals and not many others ]
Week 16: Lions at Atlanta Falcons
A Christmas Day flight to Atlanta for a team that will most likely be out of playoff contention? I’m guessing this one won’t go so well, either. Pick: Falcons 27, Lions 17.
Week 17: Lions at Seattle Seahawks
The last time Goff saw the Seahawks, he came off the bench — with a broken thumb, no less — to lead his team to a playoff victory. It’s possible he has some Seattle magic left in him. Pick: Seahawks 30, Lions 20.
Week 18: Lions vs. Packers
The Packers won 13 games last season and had to play their starters their full complement of minutes in the regular season finale in order to lock up home field advantage in the playoffs. It’s possible Rodgers and Co. sit here, but the expanded playoff field makes it unlikely. Pick: Packers 27, Lions 20.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.