The return of the NFL season means the return of fantasy football! While fantasy is not everyone’s favorite, there is plenty of real life intrigue tangential to the game as well, especially with the growing industry of sports betting. At the end of the day, both come down to identifying which players will perform better than the computers, betting markets, and opposing fantasy managers expect.
This season, I will be devoting the Friday open thread to four players who may be able to beat their consensus projections in the upcoming Detroit Lions game. End the week with a little fun and take a stab at identifying the upcoming game’s diamond in the rough! For Week 1, here are the four options (6pt TDs, 0.5 PPR):
- Jared Goff (15.2 pts): 240 pass yd, 1.2 TD, 0.8 INT
- T.J. Hockenson (9.8 pts): 4.7 rec, 50 rec yd, 0.4 TD
- Raheem Mostert (10.5 pts): 54 rush yd, 1.8 rec, 12 rec yd, 0.5 TD
- Brandon Aiyuk (10.3 pts): 4.7 rec, 62 rec yd, 0.3 TD
Today’s Question of the Day is:
Which Lions-49ers player will outperform their projections?
My answer: Fantasy projections are difficult because scoring a touchdown or not can make all the difference. However, there is still much that can be gained from averaging all of the models out there. The player that has to jump out on the list is Hockenson, who is set to feast with few other targets available in the passing game. Half of his appearances last season featured over 50 yards, and he will see plenty of opportunities to open up this year.
Maybe it does not happen Week 1, but Aiyuk should be in for a big season as well. Seven of his 12 games featured at least 70 yards last year, and he is also a threat on jet sweeps and end arounds. A healthy George Kittle and Deebo Samuel may take away a few targets, but they will also draw some of the attention from the defense. The sophomore is headed for a WR2 type season in fantasy.
Which player will outperform their projections?
Jared Goff (15.2 pts)
T.J. Hockenson (9.8 pts)
Raheem Mostert (10.5 pts)
Brandon Aiyuk (10.3 pts)
0 votes total