With a couple notable absences possible for the Detroit Lions offense, Week 4 looks like a now-or-never moment for T.J. Hockenson to remain a virtual fantasy lineup lock.
In Week 1, it seemed Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson had a nice fantasy matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. He promptly delivered four catches for 38 yards. Week 2, on seven targets in a second straight game, was a bit worse (three receptions for 26 yards).
But Week 3 was a back to the well moment to declare Hockenson a nice fantasy start against the Minnesota Vikings. He saved his fantasy day and got to double-digit PPR points thanks to a touchdown, with a total of three catches for 18 yards.
That Hockenson is a top-12 fantasy tight end through Week 3 in full and 0.5-point PPR says a lot about the position. Week 4 is lining up to be good for him though.
The Lions came out of last week’s game with some notable injuries. For fantasy purposes the headliners are running back D’Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder), who may be held out through the Week 6 bye, and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (right ankle), who is banged up too.
So Hockenson’s primary competition for short area targets from Jared Goff is either going to be out or less than 100 percent on Sunday.
Fantasy Football: Week 4 is a now-or-never moment for T.J. Hockenson
In Week 4 the Lions take on the Seattle Seahawks, who are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season (0.5-point and full PPR). Two tight ends, of different talent class (Albert Okwuegbunam, Kyle Pitts) have had five catches against them. Ross Dwelley had a touchdown against them in Week 2.
Seattle has allowed six targets per game to tight ends through three weeks, and that’s with ceding only one target to Dwelley as the 49ers’ No. 1 tight end when George Kittle was out in Week 2.
Hockenson was solidly involved in the first two games, but it didn’t yield much production. Week 3’s lower volume (four targets) was offset by the touchdown. Target volume and red zone looks could merge in Week 4.
If Hockenson delivers a dud against the Seahawks, assuming Swift and St. Brown are some combination of out or limited, his status as a “you’ve probably pretty much gotta role with him” starting tight end in fantasy will be in peril–if not go away entirely. It’s not that he’d be drop-worthy, given the lack of depth a tight end, but it would be time to consider alternate options until he shows something other than touchdown-dependent mediocrity.