Amon-Ra St. Brown has been on a downturn for the last several weeks, but Week 10 is a prime spot for a rebound back into the good graces of his fantasy managers.
Since his big game in Week 2 against the Washington Commanders, here’s how the ensuing weeks have looked for Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Week 3: six receptions for 73 yards (nine targets), suffered an ankle injury
Week 4: Out due to ankle injury
Week 5: four receptions for 18 yards (six targets, 21 snaps)
Week 7: one catch for four yards (12 snaps, out early due to a head injury)
Week 8: seven receptions for 69 yards (10 targets)
Week 9: four receptions for 55 yards (nine targets)
If he has been in uniform, St. Brown’s fantasy managers have put him in their lineups. Week 7 against the Cowboys was just a random injury situation, but it might have been nice to know he’d be on a snap count in Week 5.
At full health in the last two games, St. Brown’s target shares have been 27 and 34.6 percent respectively. His catch rate has also been a less than robust 57.9 percent over that span, with fantasy finishes as WR23 (Week 8) and WR31 (Week 9) in full PPR.
Amon-Ra St. Brown in prime spot for a fantasy rebound in Week 10
Detroit will face the Chicago Bears in Week 10. In terms of fantasy points allowed, Chicago is in the top half of the league against wide receivers. They’ve also faced the second-fewest pass attempts against per game in the league (27.7). The last two quarterbacks they’ve faced, as their offense has improved, have had 27 (Dak Prescott) and 30 (Tua Tagovailoa) pass attempts, with at least a 70 percent completion rate.
Five of the 10 touchdown passes the Bears have allowed this season have come over the last two games.
Even if cold weather keeps Jared Goff below his over/under number for pass attempts on Sunday (33.5, odds of course subject to change), St. Brown should hit 8-10 targets automatically. If the game becomes a shootout, then all the better for St. Brown’s target volume.
Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros has deeper data to show the spot St. Brown is in this week.
In the five games St. Brown has played full-time snaps, he’s seen a 30.5% target share (10.2 targets per game) with 25.7% of the air yards and 2.36 yards per route run. In that five-game sample, St. Brown has been a WR1 twice and a top 36 wide receiver in every game.
And lining up the majority of the time against Bears rookie corner Kyler Gordon in the slot is even better. Brown continued:
St. Brown is due for a blowup game. St. Brown is a WR1 who will run about 58% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (79.6% catch rate, 113.8 passer rating).
Benching St. Brown is likely not an option most weeks for his fantasy managers. But this looks like the week he gets back on track with a smash game, and gets back in the good graces of those who have been frustrated with his situation lately.