Lions quarterback Jared Goff won’t be in many season-long fantasy lineups in Week 11, but here’s why he’s a sneaky DFS play against the Giants.
Through Week 4 this season, Lions quarterback Jared Goff was QB5 in fantasy. Since then, he’s averaging a little more than 11 fantasy points per game and has been QB27 by total points. So he’s not in season-long lineups other than as a possible QB2 option in two-quarterback/super flex leagues, or a streaming option in deeper one-quarterback leagues for those who are desperate.
Goff may get wide receivers DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds back on Sunday against the New York Giants. But even if he doesn’t, the Giants are a middle of the road pass defense (17th in EPA per drop back, 18th in raw passing yards allowed) that allows big plays (28th in explosive pass rate allowed).
Jared Goff is a sneaky DFS play in Week 11 against the Giants
The Giants are also mid-pack in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (15.86 per game; 13th-fewest in the league–Yahoo! scoring). No quarterback has posted 20 fantasy points against them this season, and only three have had multiple passing touchdowns against them. Hence the industry-wide sentiment to sit Goff this week.
Two of the last three quarterbacks the Giants have faced, Trevor Lawrence in Week 8 and Davis Mills in Week 10, have topped 300 yards through the air. In between, Geno Smith had two passing touchdowns against them in Week 9 on his way to a shade over 19 fantasy points (Yahoo! scoring).
The Giants blitz at the highest rate in the NFL this season (39.7 percent). Goff has the most passing yards in the league against the blitz, and he is sixth in yards per attempt against the blitz (8.2).
In DFS, Goff is $6,800 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings. Yahoo’s projection for this week gives him 16.73 fantasy points. Spending down on him in a DFS lineup obviously allows for spending more in other spots, with some sneaky upside for the Lions’ signal caller.
Goff will not be in a lot of DFS lineups. So there’s a contrarian/punt element in play too, and using him might be just crazy enough to pay off. In a bundle of Week 11 lineup enteries, taking a shot on Goff in one should not be dismissed out of hand.