Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (12-27-1 overall, 7-20-1 with Lions); Jaguars — Doug Pederson (46-44-1 overall, 4-7 with Jaguars).
Last game: Lions lost to Buffalo Bills, 28-25. Jaguars beat Baltimore Ravens, 28-27.
Last meeting: Oct. 18, 2020: Lions won, 34-16.
Key matchups
Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson vs. Jaguars RT Jawaan Taylor: Hutchinson, the reigning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Month, has been arguably the Lions’ best defensive player since the team tweaked his responsibilities during the bye week. He has a team-leading 5½ sacks plus two interceptions; he earned praise this week from defensive line coach Todd Wash for his run defense. Hutchinson has extra incentive playing against a Jaguars teams that passed on him with the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, something he said Thursday “will stick with me forever.” The Lions bounce Hutchinson between both end spots, but if they’re looking for a matchup to exploit, they might find one against Taylor. The veteran right tackle has allowed four sacks this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and has three drive-stalling penalties.
UNDER CENTER:Detroit Lions OC Ben Johnson: ‘I’ve got total trust’ in Jared Goff to make clutch throws
HELLO, AGAIN:Lions WR DJ Chark ready to face Jaguars: ‘I needed a change in scenery’
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne vs. Lions LB Alex Anzalone: Etienne was limited to two carries and five offensive snaps in Jacksonville’s win over the Ravens last week because of a foot injury. He’s expected to play Sunday and has been a difference-maker when healthy this year. He had three straight 100-yard rushing games in Weeks 7-9 and balances a Jacksonville offense that has struggled to score points at various times this season. Anzalone leads a Lions run defense that bottled up New York’s Saquon Barkley two weeks ago but is allowing more than 150 yards per game on the season. Campbell said the Lions “have to be very aware” of Etienne because the “majority of the (Jaguars) offense is going through him.”
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Jaguars run defense
Jamaal Williams is closing in on his first 1,000-yard rushing season with six games to play and there’s no sign of him relinquishing his role as lead back. Williams has at least 15 carries in eight of the Lions’ past nine games. His physical running style fits the Lions’ personality, and he leads the NFL touchdowns.
Williams averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in the month of November, so the Lions need to get their explosive running plays elsewhere. D’Andre Swift and Justin Jackson have split backup duties, and as Swift’s health improves — he was off the injury report this week — he should get more opportunities. The Lions will be without right guard Evan Brown for the second straight game.
The Jaguars have a middle-of-the-pack run defense at 114.8 yards per game allowed, but Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said teams have struggled to run against Jacksonville this season, save for some big plays made possible by missed tackles. Jacksonville is big and athletic up front, and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun is third in the NFL in solo tackles. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Jaguars pass defense
After struggling with turnovers early this season, Jared Goff has improved the past five weeks. He has one interception since Halloween and has done a good job keeping the Lions in manageable downs and distances.
The Lions have not generated many big plays with their passing game of late, but that could change now that their health is improving at receiver. Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least seven catches in four of five games since his return from a brain injury, Josh Reynolds is feeling better after playing eight snaps in November because of a back injury and DJ Chark will play without restrictions against his old team this week.
CARLOS MONARREZ:Lions talking playoffs and feel like a dangerous team with potential
The Jaguars rank in the bottom third of the NFL in pass yards allowed per game (248.1) and play (7.1). They’ve followed the league-wide trend of playing more zone coverage this season, but Johnson said they have two aggressive safeties in Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins. That could afford the Lions downfield passing opportunities in the play-action game. Jacksonville ranks near the bottom of the league in sack percentage, though linebackers Josh Allen and rookie Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick, are disruptive on the edge. Edge: Lions
Jaguars run offense vs. Lions run defense
Etienne played well enough early this season that the Jaguars traded running back James Robinson, a 1,000-yard rusher in 2020, to the New York Jets. The second-year back is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and is a weapon in the pass game. He has topped 14 carries just twice this season, so he won’t get a heavy rush load. But he’s enough of a gamechanger that the Lions must account for him every play.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the Jaguars’ second-best rushing threat. He’s more like Josh Allen than Justin Fields — he’s a pass-first quarterback — but he’s effective scrambling and will get a handful of designed carries every game. The Jaguars rank ninth at 130.4 rushing yards per game.
The Lions stoned Barkley (15 carries, 22 yards) and the Giants’ one-dimensional offense two weeks ago, but have had been pavement for teams with running quarterbacks this year. They’re last in the league in expected points contributed (minus-56) by a run defense that’s 31st in yards per rush allowed (5.22) and have not been able to get off the field in short-yardage situations. Edge: Jaguars
Jaguars pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
After a rocky start to his NFL career, Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in 2021, has found his groove in recent weeks. He gets the ball out of his hands faster than every quarterback but Tom Brady and made several big-time throws in Jacksonville’s come-from-behind win last week.
The Jaguars use lots of pre-snap motions and bunch formations to help Lawrence decipher defenses, and they’ve done a good job this season getting their receivers the ball in open space. Christian Kirk is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. He leads Jacksonville with 725 yards and seven touchdowns on 56 catches. Zay Jones and ex-Lions receiver Marvin Jones round out a balanced receiving corps.
The Lions rank near the bottom of the league in most pass defense categories, but their secondary has shown marked improvement since the firing of Aubrey Pleasant. They’ve simplified their scheme on first and second down and aren’t afraid to dial up pressure in got-to-have-it situations. Jeff Okudah is back after missing last week with a brain injury, and Mike Hughes is coming off his best game as a Lion. Edge: Jaguars
Special teams
The Lions had a few rough weeks on special teams early in the season, but they’ve been solid in most aspects of late. Michael Badgley missed a short field goal against the Bills but is perfect on kicks of 40-plus yards this season, and the Lions rank in the top 10 in both kick- and punt-return average. Jack Fox is netting a career-low 40.8 yards per punt, but the Lions have two blocked kicks from their field goal rush unit.
The Jaguars are top 10 in kick- and punt-return defense, so it will be interesting to see if they challenge Lions returners Kalif Raymond and Justin Jackson. Jacksonville has its own dangerous return man in ex-Lion Jamaal Agnew, and Lions castoff Riley Patterson is 16-for-20 on field goals but does not have extensive range. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The Lions and Jaguars are mirror images in some ways. They’re both young, ascending teams playing better than their 4-7 records would indicate, but their margin for error remains slim as they chase the playoffs. The Jaguars are riding high after their upset of the Ravens, and Lawrence looks like he’s turned a corner with six touchdown passes and no interceptions the past three weeks. Their point production has been spotty, however, and their defense has struggled away from home. The Lions have their own defensive issues, especially against the run. But they’re the better, more talented team, and this is the type of game they should win if their rebuild is truly on track. Pick: Lions 28, Jaguars 21.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.