The Detroit Lions can boost their chances to make the playoffs substantially with a win Saturday over the Carolina Panthers, and if things fall right elsewhere they could be in a position to clinch a playoff berth (with some help) in Week 17.
So who do the Lions need to win — and lose — to have the best chance at making the postseason? Here’s your rooting guide for this weekend’s games.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
The Commanders (7-6-1) currently control the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC, but if they lose Saturday their odds of reaching the postseason will dip below 25%, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
The Lions may want to avoid a first-round matchup with the 49ers in the playoffs. San Francisco will be a tough out with one of the best defenses in the NFL. But the Lions can’t worry about their wild card opponent yet. They have to get in the postseason first. A tie would be ideal, and would bring the Lions’ tie-breaker edge over the Commanders back into play, but a Commanders loss would help the Lions’ chances, too.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
The Seahawks and Lions have identical 7-7 records, but Seattle won at Ford Field in October, which means the Lions would lose a head-to-head tie-breaker for a wild card spot.
The Seahawks have struggled of late, losing four of their past five games, but they close the season with winnable games at home against the New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams. If they upset a Chiefs team that’s still in the mix for homefield advantage in the AFC, they’ll leave the Lions with no room for error down the stretch.
The Lions can take control of the NFC’s final wild card spot if they win and both the Commanders and Seahawks lose.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
At 8-5-1, the Giants currently hold the sixth seed in the NFC. They have an 87% chance of making the postseason, and if they reach 10 wins the Lions won’t be able to pass them in the standings.
The Giants host the Indianapolis Colts in a winnable game next week, and visit a Philadelphia Eagles team that could be resting its starters in Week 18. The Vikings clinched the NFC North with their record-setting come-from-behind win over the Indianapolis Colts last week, so Lions fans can grit their teeth and pull for their division rival to get a victory Saturday.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams
This game won’t affect the Lions’ playoff chances, but it’s significant for another reason — the NFL draft.
The Broncos and Rams are third and fourth, respectively, in next spring’s draft order, though neither team still has its first-round pick. The loser of Sundays game will inch closer to locking up a top-three selection, while the winner could drop as low as No. 9.
The Lions own the Rams’ choice from last year’s Matthew Stafford trade, so they’ll be rooting hard for L.A. to lose its final three games. If that happens, they should be in a position to land one of the draft’s top defensive players, Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson or Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, if that’s the direction they want to go in their rebuild.
The Rams (4-10) close the season with games against the Los Angeles Chargers and at the Seahawks, so is their last best chance to get a win.
More:How a stack of $100s helped turn rough start into Detroit Lions’ playoff berth 39 years ago
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
At 6-8, the Packers need a lot to go right to make the playoffs, but if you’re a Lions fan you’ve probably seen enough to be worried about playing Aaron Rodgers in the last game of the regular season with a playoff berth on the line.
If Green Bay loses, the Packers’ small playoff chances will shrink below 1%. Maybe more importantly, the Packers could choose to shut Rodgers down for the season. A Jordan Love-led Packers team doesn’t seem nearly as scary in Week 18, though 11 years ago people were saying the same thing about Matt Flynn.
Others to win: Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals
The Bears (3-11) are a long shot to beat the Buffalo Bills this week, but if they do they’ll drop below the Rams-Broncos loser in the draft order. The Rams’ first-round pick could move as high as No. 2 overall if Chicago wins. The Cardinals-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game could have a similar impact on draft. The Cardinals and Rams have identical 4-10 records, so it behooves the Lions to have Arizona win a game or two.
Others to lose: Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots
The Eagles can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win over the Dallas Cowboys, but it’s probably best for the Lions if the Eagles lose so they have to take their Week 18 game against the Giants seriously, just in case. The Patriots host the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that has no NFC playoff implications, but could impact the draft order. The Rams and Saints are separated by 4/1000ths of a percent in strength of schedule. The Saints lost to the Bengals in October, while the Rams did not face either team. A Patriots win Saturday could be just enough to push the Saints behind the Rams in the draft order if they end up with the same record.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.