Detroit Lions (1-3) at New England Patriots (1-3)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (9-23-1 overall, 4-16-1 with Lions); Patriots — Bill Belichick (291-146 overall, 255-102 with Patriots).
Last game: Lions lost to Seattle Seahawks, 48-45; Patriots lost to Green Bay Packers, 27-24 (OT).
Last meeting: Sept. 23, 2018: Lions won, 26-10.
Key matchups
Lions DC Aaron Glenn vs. Patriots assistant Matt Patricia: Glenn has come under intense fire for the performance of his defense, which ranks last in the NFL in points and yards allowed and is giving up touchdowns on nearly 90% of opponent trips to the red zone. Glenn plans to simplify his defense this week, when he matches wits with Patricia, the former Lions coach and longtime Patriots defensive coordinator who now is calling plays on offense in New England. The Patriots offense has been underwhelming this season, averaging just 18.5 points per game, and could be starting a third-string quarterback in Bailey Zappe. Still, Patricia has extra incentive playing his old team, and if the Patriots put up big numbers against Glenn’s defense it will be a blemish on his tenure in Detroit.
Lions WR Josh Reynolds vs. Patriots CB Jack Jones: The Patriots are masters at taking away what other teams do best. With the Lions, that could be running the football. If New England decides to load up against the run, that should leave plenty of one-on-one opportunities in the passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable to play with a sprained ankle, and if he can’t go Reynolds will work as the Lions’ top receiver. The Patriots have two solid cornerbacks in Jones, a rookie fourth-round pick, and Jonathan Jones (no relation). The former is coming off a standout performance against the Green Bay Packers, where he had an interception returned for a touchdown and a fumble recovery.
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Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Patriots run defense
D’Andre Swift will miss his second straight game with a sprained shoulder, but the Lions were able to survive his absence with little issue on the ground last week. Jamaal Williams played the feature back roll against the Seahawks and finished with 108 yards rushing and two touchdowns.
Williams leads the NFL with six rushing touchdowns through four weeks. He’s a power back who does most of his damage between the tackles, but the Lions’ formidable offensive line has paved the way for a league-high four runs of 40-plus yards this season. Craig Reynolds will see time as Williams’ backup, but he got only three touches while playing about 25% of the offensive snaps last week.
The Patriots rank 26th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (135.8) and 29th in yards per carry (5.1), but those numbers obscure the job they did stopping Najee Harris (15 carries, 49 yards). Lawrence Guy is out for a second straight game with a shoulder injury, which means more will be asked of Christian Barmore in the run game. Ex-Lions linebacker Jahlani Tavai had eight tackles last week in a backup role. Edge: Lions
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Lions pass offense vs. Patriots pass defense
Just like their running game, the Lions’ passing attack has kept humming this season despite being besieged by injuries. DJ Chark will miss his second straight game with an ankle injury, but the Lions could get St. Brown (ankle) back after a one-week absence. If St. Brown can’t play, the Lions will rely heavily on Reynolds and tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Jared Goff has played well enough this season (1,126 yards, 11 TDs) to think he could be the Lions’ long-term answer at quarterback, though he’s hovering near the bottom of the NFL in completion percentage (60.9%). Goff must do a better job taking care of the ball as he’s thrown pick-6s in two of the Lions’ three losses.
Jack Jones has the best coverage grade in the NFL among cornerbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, but Campbell touted the Lions’ need to keep edge rusher Matt Judon at bay this week. Judon, a three-time Pro Bowler, has one sack in every game the Patriots have played this season, but the Lions are strong on the edges with Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell playing high-level football at tackle. Edge: Lions
Patriots run offense vs. Lions run defense
With the Patriots likely starting Zappe at quarterback, Lions defensive tackle Alim McNeill said he expects a “very run-heavy” approach from New England’s offense.
“They’re really heavy on the inside, they’re going to double-team us,” he said. “We’re going to get double-teams all day long. That’s how it’s going to work. We’re going to allow the linebackers to free play and make plays, so the run game is on this week for sure.”
The Patriots rank 10th in the NFL in rushing at 128.5 yards per game and take a committee approach to their backfield with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Both players can be effective in the short passing game, and McNeill said New England’s big offensive line stays with its double-team blocks, which puts the tackling spotlight on Malcolm Rodriguez and Alex Anzalone. The Lions are allowing 165.5 yards per game on the ground, with most of their struggles coming on perimeter rushing plays. Edge: Patriots
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Patriots pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
The Patriots moved the ball efficiently with Zappe in the game last week, relying heavily on a mix of quick-screens and short play-action passes to complement the run game. Zappe does not have a big arm by NFL standards, and while the Lions have talked of simplifying their defensive scheme this week, they do enough in their blitz game to confuse young quarterbacks.
New England’s receiving corps is subpar by NFL standards. DeVante Parker plays as the Patriots’ No. 1 receiver, but nearly all of his production this season came in a Week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Cast-off Nelson Agholor leads the Patriots with 14 catches and 225 yards receiving, but Stevenson might end up being Zappe’s favorite target Sunday.
As mediocre as New England’s passing game is, the opportunity is there for big plays against a Lions secondary that has been abysmal. Amani Oruwariye is having a disappointing season, and while Jeff Okudah has played well in his return from a torn Achilles, Mike Hughes has been a liability at slot corner and rookie Kerby Joseph will start at safety. The Lions lost Charles Harris to a mid-week groin injury and may need to manufacture some pass rush against a solid Patriots offensive line. Edge: Lions
Special teams
The Lions are onto their third kicker in five weeks after waiving Austin Seibert and signing Michael Badgley to the practice squad. Badgley made all four of his field goal tries last week for the Chicago Bears, so kicking outdoors should not be an issue. Kicking woes aside, the Lions are solid on special teams, with Jack Fox handling punting and one of the league’s best kick cover units. The Lions executed a successful fake punt and nearly recovered an onside kick last week, so they give opponents a lot to prepare for in the kicking game.
The Patriots are similarly diverse on special teams, though punter Jake Bailey is netting a career-low 34.5 yards per punt so far this season. Bailey’s numbers are weighed down by two touchbacks in a Week 2 win over the Steelers and a long return by the Baltimore Ravens’ Devin Duvernay. The Patriots have gotten steady production out of kick return Marcus Jones, so the Lions might opt for touchbacks this week. Nick Folk is 4-for-5 on field goals, with his lone miss coming wide right from 52 yards. Edge: Patriots
Prediction
Belichick is too good a coach to let the Lions run wild on offense like they have the first four weeks of the season. Expect the Patriots to try and control the clock with their running game and force Goff to beat them through the air, something he could not do in the Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Rams four years ago. But the NFL is a quarterback league and the Lions have a decided advantage at the position with Zappe likely making his first career start on the opposing sideline. The Patriots have two capable backs who could give the Lions problems, but after a week of introspection I expect the Lions to play their best defensive game of the season. Pick: Lions 24, Patriots 20.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.