Even more than a week after they were eliminated less than an hour before their season finale began, the Detroit Lions are riding high, with some pundits even declaring the path to the NFC North title is “going through Detroit for the next five years,” and others imagining a world in which the Lions made it to the NFC championship game this season. This despite the Lions having found that path blocked off — or, in true Michigan form, pocked with unpassable potholes — for nearly three decades, with the franchise’s most recent division title coming in 1993.
Sure, the Jacksonville Jaguars may have stolen a bit of the Lions’ vibe in their stunning comeback from a 27-point deficit in their playoff victory on Saturday night. But that’s in the AFC, rather than the Lions’ NFC.
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Besides, the Lions went 9-8 (their first winning record since 2017) and they were the last team eliminated from playoff contention this season … and — unlike so many seasons before — they still went out and dominated their final opponent to raise hopes (and, dare we say, momentum?) for next season. That has to mean something, right?
Let’s look back at the past five teams which finished as “the last team out” to see how they fared the following season:
2021: New Orleans Saints (9-8)
In 2021: A season of transition, as the Saints went from Drew Brees at QB to Jameis Winston, turned to one of rebuilding when Winston was lost for the season in Week 8 with a torn ACL. Trevor Siemian wasn’t up to the challenge, and the Saints lost five straight. A change was needed and coach Sean Payton adjusted his offense, with former BYU standout Tayson Hill taking over to lead the Saints to a 4-1 record in their final five. More importantly, coordinator Dennis Allen’s defense stiffened, allowing just an average of 11.8 points over that span.
The offseason: Payton followed Brees’ lead and retired, and the team promoted Allen to the top job. With continuity on defense, the Saints mostly focused on upgrading their offense, planning for Winston’s eventual return; they dealt their 2023 first-round pick in a pair of deals that allowed them move up and grab Ohio State wideout Chris Olave at No. 11 and take left tackle Trevor Penning at No. 19. They didn’t completely ignore defense, however; they brought in three-time All-Pro and New Orleans native Tyrann Mathieu at safety.
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The follow-up: Injures are perhaps the greatest equalizer in the NFL, and the Saints fell victim when Winston fractured four vertebrae in Week 1. He attempted to play through it, but threw five interceptions over his next two games before the team turned to journeyman Andy Dalton to allow him to heal. But the biggest problem was a defense that suddenly turned into a sieve — thanks to injuries and a wealth of starters on the wrong side of 30 — and allowed at least 27 points in five of six games in October and early November. The Saints opened 4-9 before getting to their mid-December bye; even with three wins right after the break, they were still out of playoff contention, despite a weak NFC South field and finished 7-10.
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2020: Miami Dolphins (10-6)
In 2020: The Dolphins took QB Tua Tagovailoa with the No. 5 overall pick in the spring, but come summer, it was journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick beating out the rookie from Alabama for the starting job. Tagovailoa made his first start in Game 7 and didn’t throw an interception until mid-December. Miami went 6-2 in his first eight starts, but with the playoffs on the line against Buffalo in Week 17, Tagovailoa threw three picks, with one returned for a TD, in a 56-26 loss.
The offseason: With Tagovailoa finally entrenched as the starter, the Dolphins gave him some help in the receiving corps, trading up to No. 6 to draft former Crimson Tide teammate Jaylen Waddle (at the expense of their 2022 first-rounder) and signing former Houston wideout Will Fuller V. With their other first-round pick, the Dolphins attempted to shore up a defense that had allowed 5.9 yards a play by taking linebacker Jaelan Phillips at No. 18 overall.
The follow-up: A Week 1 17-16 win over a New England Patriots team starting rookie Mac Jones at QB suggested the defense was indeed shored up. Losses in their next six, a span which the Dolphins gave up 31 points a game, showed it was not. Tagovailoa was hurt again in Week 2, with fractured ribs costing him most of four games, and then again in Week 8, missing a mid-November game with a fractured finger. The Dolphins closed with eight wins in their final nine games, but missed the postseason by a game — again — and fired coach Brian Flores.
2019: Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
In 2019: The defending NFC champs, despite being embarrassed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl, seemed to be positioned to thrive. But the running game which fueled coach Sean McVay’s play-action-based offense dried up as running back Todd Gurley suddenly looked washed up at age 25. After averaging 4.9 yards a carry in 2018, Gurley struggled to get to 3.8 yards a carry in 2019. Not only did Gurley not muster any 100-yard games, he reached 80 yards just three times. With no play-action to fear, teams sat back on QB Jared Goff; his touchdowns dropped from 32 to 22 despite going from 561 pass attempts to a league-high 626. The Rams averaged 29 points over their final five games, but gave up 24.2 a game to go 3-2 — despite having acquired All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey in Week 7. Were the Rams still a team to watch, or one watching its playoff window closing?
The offseason: The Ramsey deal left the Rams without a 2020 first-rounder, and his new contract — plus big raises for Goff and two-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald — didn’t leave them much wiggle room under the salary cap. The Rams’ first pick in the draft came at No. 52: Running back Cam Akers, out of Florida State, and was followed with Florida wide receiver Van Jefferson at No. 57.
The follow-up: Maybe it was the return to royal blue uniforms, or the opening of SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, but the Rams opened with seven wins in their first 10 games (and two three-point losses). The offense was far from elite; even Akers’ breakout after Thanksgiving couldn’t cover holes in the passing game, which led to Goff’s benching for the season finale. But the defense made up for it — finishing first in points allowed (18.5 a game), yards allowed per play (4.6, 0.3 fewer than any other team) and fewest total yards — thanks to Donald’s third DPOY campaign and a return to All-Pro form by Ramsey. The Rams went 10-6 and even won a playoff game (with Goff at the wheel after an injury to backup-turned-starter John Wofford). Goff’s playoff performance wasn’t enough for McVay and the Rams, who decided to upgrade to a vet with a decade of experience in the NFC North. We forget his name, though.
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2018: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1)
In 2018: A Week 1 tie with a team coming off an 0-16 season, followed by a Week 2 loss to a QB making his third career start, is probably not how the defending AFC North champs anticipated 2018 starting. Of course, that Week 2 loss came against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, so we’ll let it slide — as did the Steelers, who won seven out of their next eight games before running into a troublesome AFC West foe. Well, three of them: The Steelers lost to the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and the Oakland Raiders in a 15-day span. All this came without star running back (and former Spartan) Le’Veon Bell, who held out the entire season, with a veteran QB (Ben Roethlisberger) publicly upset that the team had seemingly drafted his replacement (um, Mason Rudolph) and a wide receiver who just kinda unraveled as the season rolled on (CMU’s Antonio Brown, who was suspended for Week 17 — the week after he had 14 catches for 185 yards in a loss to the Saints that virtually eliminated the Steelers.)
The offseason: If ever there was a case of addition by subtraction, this had to be it; Bell was allowed to walk as a free agent —the Steelers still had James Connor, who’d barely missed reaching 1,000 yards in 2018 — and Brown was dealt to the Raiders for draft picks that became WR Dionte Johnson (out of Toledo in the third round) and TE Zach Gentry (out of Michigan in the fourth round). That’s thinking ahead — both Johnson and Gentry were productive Steelers all the way through 2022. And then there was quarterback — Roethlisberger was coming back for his age-37 season, and Rudolph now had a year in the system (though not actually playing any regular-season games). When Rudolph beat out 2018’s backup, Joshua Dobbs, the Steelers shipped Dobbs to Jacksonville for a fifth-round pick. After all, Roethlisberger had played at least 12 games in every one of his 15 seasons, and was coming off a season in which he led the league in attempts (675), completions (452) and passing yards (5,129). (And also interceptions, with 16, but hey, pass that much and bad things happen.)
The follow-up: A different kind of bad thing happened in Week 2, as the Steelers visited the Seattle Seahawks: Roethlisberger launched a deep ball to JuJu Smith-Schuster late in the second quarter, and instantly felt a different pain and different discomfort than I ever felt,” the QB later told ESPN. “It was shooting down my arm, and so I knew something was different at that moment.” Roethlisberger had torn three flexor tendons in his elbow, a severe injury even in a sport known for them, and was out for the season. (He actually completed two more passes to get the Steelers into field-goal position before departing in favor of Rudolph in the second half.) Rudolph “led” Pittsburgh to wins in five of the next five games, but five interceptions in a six-quarter span cost him the starting job and the Steelers turned to Devlin “Duck” Hodges — who threw six picks in the final three games combined, all losses as the Steelers finished 8-8 and again a game out of the playoffs.
2017: Detroit Lions (9-7)
In 2017: Coming off just the franchise’s third playoff appearance of the 2000s — a dispiriting 26-6 road loss to the Seahawks — the Lions still muddled their way to eight wins through 14 games despite finishing the year next to last in rushes, last in rushing yards and last in yards per rush. Perhaps it was simply a cursed season. Consider the Week 3 loss to the Falcons, in which Matthew Stafford, down by four, led the Lions 88 yards in 2:04, going from their 11 to the Falcons’ 1 with 19 seconds remaining (thanks to a pass interference call in the end zone). With three shots at the end zone, Stafford threw incomplete twice, then found Golden Tate for the winning score — only to have it overturned on review and — worse — the Lions penalized with a 10-second clock runoff as a result of the review. Game over. Three months later, the cause was much clearer: Needing to keep their playoff hopes alive with a Week 16 win at Cincinnati, the Lions allowed 10 points in the final 4:42 for a 26-17 loss. Even a season-ending win over the Packers — the team’s first sweep of Green Bay since 1991 — couldn’t wipe away the ennui.
The offseason: The defense! The defense was the problem! (Yes, the same defense that had added first-round linebacker Jarrad Davis and second-round cornerback Teez Tabor in the 2017 draft, so it wasn’t an entirely wrong take.) And so coach Jim Caldwell was out after three of four seasons with a winning record, and in came the Patriots’ defensive coordinator (and BFF with Lions GM Bob Quinn) — Matt Patricia. (Quinn did attempt to address the run game via the draft, nabbing center Frank Ragnow, who would become a Pro Bowler, at No. 5 overall, and running back Kerryon Johnson, who would not, at No. 43.)
The follow-up: The Lions’ bright (and immensely Patriots-colored) future opened with a thud — a 48-17 loss to the New York Jets at Ford Field on national TV. A Week 3 win over the Patriots — also on national TV — brought hope, as did a Week 5 win over the Packers. A Week 7 win over the Dolphins featured 248 yards rushing and a .500 record — more hope! And then the Lions rushed for 176 yards in their next three games — combined. (Why yes, they were all losses.) Abandon all hope; the Lions lost seven of their final 10 games to finish 6-10 and last in the North (behind even the Packers, who they somehow swept again).