| Detroit Free Press
Nate Burleson breaks down Detroit Lions’ Matthew Stafford trade. Who won the deal?
Former Lions WR and current NFL Network and CBS TV personality Nate Burleson joins Dave Birkett to discuss the Matthew Stafford trade, Jared Goff & more, Feb. 2, 2021.
Dave Birkett, Detroit Free Press
Put your money where your mouth is.
NFL fans can argue all day long about the value and meaning of the Detroit Lionstrading quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for quarterback Jared Goff and three draft picks.
But sportsbooks and their bettors have been clear about what they think of the trade.
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Oddsmakers and the betting public essentially thought Stafford was a significant upgrade over Goff, which led to the Rams getting much better odds to win Super Bowl LVI in 2022 — and, conversely, the Lions’ poor odds dropping even further.
At William Hill sportsbook, the Rams opened with 18-1 odds for next year’s Super Bowl. After the trade on Saturday, the odds improved to 15-1. And then improved again.
“I do know that we had the Rams 15-1 and immediately after the trade was announced a very sharp, respected bettor took the 15-1, so we dropped it to 10-1,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading William Hill US. “So that bettor really thinks that Stafford’s going to be an upgrade over Goff and put the Rams over the top. So I always have to respect that.”
The Rams are tied for the third-best odds to win Super Bowl LVI behind the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers.
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Bogdanovich said the respected bettor’s wager was sizable, but size wasn’t the only thing that mattered.
“It was enough,” he said. “It’s really not the dollar amount. It’s who bets it. Someone could bet $80,000 on it and we wouldn’t move it. Someone else bets $2,000 on it and we’ll move it.
“So there’s certain guys you respect who’ve been around the industry. He basically was telling us 15-1’s too high, there’s value with the Rams. So we just lowered it.”
It’s all part of what Bogdanovich calls the “chess game” behind the art and science of betting and setting odds.
“He obviously thinks it’s a major upgrade,” he said of Stafford joining the Rams. “I don’t know if that’s totally true, but we’ll see. That’s what makes this bet so interesting. It’s the chess game and sometimes they’re right and sometimes they’re wrong.”
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As for the Lions, William Hill changed their odds from 100-1 to 125-1 with the loss of Stafford and the addition of Goff.
“Yeah, that was our adjustment to the Lions,” Bogdanovich said. “We just raised them up a little thinking total overhaul. We’ll raise the odds, see if we can get a few bets on the Lions.”
The Rams also saw big increases in their odds from some online sportsbooks.
One of the biggest jumps came from betonline.ag, where a spokesman said it would have opened the Rams’ odds at 25/1 with Goff, but improved their odds to 12/1 with Stafford. As of Friday, the Rams’ odds were tied for second best behind Kansas City’s 5/1 odds. The Lions were not affected much by the trade but dropped to 75/1, tied for the lowest odds.
At sportsbetting.com, the Rams were 18/1 favorites before the trade and improved to 10/1, third-best behind Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Lions opened as 80/1 longshots and after the trade dropped to 150/1, tied for the worst odds with Jacksonville.
Contact Carlos Monarrez at email@example.com and follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.