Dave Birkett | Detroit Free Press
The Detroit Lions should have used the franchise tag on Kenny Golladay.
Given the chance to retain their No. 1 receiver this week at a below-market rate, at least for the purposes of trading him, the Lions instead opened the door and bid him farewell in free agency.
Golladay almost certainly will sign a megadeal with the New York Giants, Washington or some other wide receiver-needy team when the clock hits 4 p.m. Wednesday and the new league year opens.
The Lions should get a third-round compensatory pick in 2022 for losing Golladay, assuming they don’t sign anyone to a similar contract. But I believe they could have got more for Golladay in a tag and trade: A higher third-round pick or maybe a third and a late-round sweetener. Something better, even if they still would have had to wait till 2022 to reap the rewards.
New Lions general manager Brad Holmes seems cognizant of playing the comp pick game, which rewards franchises for losing high-priced free agents and not doling out big-money contracts. And honestly, it’s a smart thing to do, especially given where the Lions are as a team.
The two free agents the Lions have signed so far, receiver Tyrell Williams and tight end Josh Hill, will not factor into the comp pick formula because they were released by their former team, and the Lions should have enough net free agent losses — Romeo Okwara and Marvin Jones will land big contracts if they sign elsewhere, too — to accrue an extra pick or two even if they add a true building block for their defense like Los Angeles Rams safety John Johnson (who I advocated for this week) or New Orleans Saints defensive end Trey Hendrickson.
The Lions’ free agent decisions will not just be about comp picks, of course. Age has caught up with several of their pending free agents, it’s in the best interests of others to go elsewhere, and the team just needs a fresh start at some positions.
But of the Lions’ 18 unrestricted free agents (not including the already-released Justin Coleman, Christian Jones and Jesse James), I see only a handful returning to Detroit.
Romeo Okwara
Position: DE.
Age: 25.
2020 stats: 44 tackles, 10 sacks, 3 forced fumbles.
Okwara is poised to cash in on his big season in free agency, and while the Lions are light on pass-rushing help, it’s unclear how much of a priority they’ve made Okwara. He’s the only one of the Lions’ three big free agents (Golladay and Jones being the others) I could see returning, but since we’re this close to the negotiating period I’m guessing he gets his payday somewhere else, from a team like the Indianapolis Colts. Prediction: Goes.
Marvin Jones
Position: WR.
Age: 31.
2020 stats: 76 catches, 978 yards, 9 touchdowns.
Jones celebrated his 31st birthday Friday, but he’ll have to wait a few days for his big present — a sizable third contract. Jones still has plenty to offer as a receiver, and if the Lions were in a different place as a franchise it would make sense to bring him back. He wants to play for a contender, though, and in a perfect world would be closer to his family in California. Prediction: Goes.
Everson Griffen
Position: DE.
Age: 33.
2020 stats: 33 tackles, 6 sacks (3.5 with Lions).
Griffen, acquired in a trade last October with the Dallas Cowboys, made no secret of his desire to rejoin the Minnesota Vikings after the season. I don’t know if that will happen, but I do believe he’ll sign a one-year deal somewhere else as both parties move on. Prediction: Goes.
Danny Amendola
Position: WR.
Age: 35.
2020 stats: 46 catches, 602 yards.
A New England Patriots refugee, Amendola has probably played his last game in Detroit. He hinted at a possible retirement when he hung his cleats over the crossbar after the Lions’ season-ending loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and while nothing has materialized on that front, he’s another veteran who would be best served latching on with a contender. Prediction: Goes.
[ How GM Brad Holmes can reshape entire Lions WR corps this offseason ]
Duron Harmon
Position: S .
Age: 30.
2020 stats: 73 tackles, 2 interceptions.
Harmon struggled down the stretch for the Lions last season, and though that may have been a product of him trying to do too much, it gave credence to the theory that he was another Patriots castoff who struggled outside of New England. Harmon is likely looking at a short-term deal in this market and — while the Lions need a starter to pair with Tracy Walker — I’d guess that contract comes from another team. Prediction: Goes.
Jarrad Davis
Position: LB.
Age: 26.
2020 stats: 46 tackles, .5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles.
I thought Davis played some of his best football in a reduced role last fall, and you hate to give up on first-round picks after four seasons. I think Davis could have value to the Lions, especially if they use a base 3-4 defense under Aaron Glenn. But the reality is, he’s going to get $6 million or so a year, would benefit from going somewhere his draft status isn’t an issue and he has not done enough to be a priority re-sign for the Lions. Prediction: Goes.
Reggie Ragland
Position: LB.
Age: 27.
2020 stats: 52 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble.
The Lions need to overhaul their linebacking corps, but Ragland played well at times in 2020 and has a history with new linebackers coach Mark DeLeone (they were together with the Kansas City Chiefs). In that regard, a one-year deal might make sense for both sides, but I don’t see Ragland as a fit for the defense. Prediction: Goes.
Adrian Peterson
Position: RB.
Age: 35.
2020 stats: 156 carries, 604 yards, 7 touchdowns.
Peterson turns 36 next week, and Lions people will tell you he was a good addition to the locker room. He’s not the same runner he used to be, however, and there’s not much reason for the Lions to keep him around at this point in his career or given where they are as a team. Prediction: Goes.
Matt Prater
Position: K.
Age: 36.
2020 stats: 21 of 28 field goals, 38 of 41 extra points.
Despite his accuracy issues last season, Prater remains perhaps the best kicker on the market. If the Lions can keep him on an affordable deal, it makes sense to bring him back. If he tops $4 million annually, the Lions might have a summer kicking competition between Matthew Wright and a rookie. Prediction: Stays.
[ Lions’ kicking job up for grabs; Fipp explains what he wants at the position ]
Don Muhlbach
Position: LS.
Age: 39.
The Lions would not commit to Steven Wirtel as their long snapper after the season, and lost him to the Rams for a $100,000 signing bonus because they were interested in a Muhlbach return. Unless he retires, he should be here at least for another summer. Prediction: Stays.
The rest:
The Lions have two special teams standouts worth retaining in Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Miles Killebrew. Neither has played much defense over the course of their careers, but Reeves-Maybin might finally get a chance in the new Lions’ scheme. The Lions have expressed an interest in retaining Reeves-Maybin, and as we inch closer to free agency I suspect that deal gets done.
At wide receiver, Mohamed Sanu was a half-season rental and likely will head elsewhere in free agency, while Jamal Agnew has established himself as one of the game’s best returners. I don’t know how much the Lions will want to invest in the return game, however, so I can see Agnew signing elsewhere if another team is willing to give him more than what the Lions would on a veteran salary benefit deal.
Oday Aboushi was serviceable as a fill-in starter last season, but if the new regime sees Halapoulivaati Vaitai as a guard, there’s not much room for Aboushi to come back. And I’d guess both Darryl Roberts and Tony McRae sign elsewhere as the Lions will have lots of options in the secondary with their new staff. McRae is a good enough special teams player that, even coming off a torn ACL, he could get something more than a minimum deal.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett