Most of college football’s best players leave school after their junior season. Last year, with the COVID-19 pandemic wrecking havoc on the sport, some didn’t make it to their third year at all.
But as fashionable as it has become to leave school early, several of this year’s top running backs bucked that trend.
Alabama’s Najee Harris bypassed the NFL draft after a strong junior season and led the Crimson Tide to the national championship in January. Ohio State’s Trey Sermon went a step further, playing last season as a graduate transfer with the Buckeyes after starting his career at Oklahoma. And Clemson’s Travis Etienne shocked observers everywhere when he opted to return for his senior season with the Tigers.
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Harris and Sermon had strong 2020 seasons that improved their draft stock, despite the extra wear on their bodies. And while Etienne wasn’t as productive as he was early in his career — his 5.4 yards per carry in 2020 was nearly 2 yards below his career average — ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said he, too, should benefit on draft day from his decision to return to school.
“Think about, Jonathan Taylor didn’t even go in the first (round last year),” Kiper said in a conference call last week. “J.K. Dobbins didn’t go in the first. D’Andre Swift. Clyde Edwards-Helaire went last pick in the first. And those backs are pretty good backs, and they didn’t go as high as a lot of people thought they would.
“At the end of the day, (Etienne) probably goes higher this year (than he would have in 2020).”
Former Detroit Lions running backs coach Kyle Caskey evaluated this year’s running backs class for the Free Press earlier this month. Of his top six backs, three — Harris, Sermon and Etienne — played out their eligibility, and a fourth (Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard) was a fourth-year junior who would have been drafted had he turned pro last spring.
North Carolina’s Javonte Williams and Memphis’ Kenneth Gainwell were the only true underclassmen in Caskey’s top six, and Gainwell was the only opt-out player in 2020.
Caskey, who spent the 2019-20 seasons with the Lions and previously coached running backs for the Cincinnati Bengals, said he would not shy away from opt-out players as long as “the guy (is) the same that was playing in 2019.”
“It is a conversation,” Caskey said. “And you’ve got to ask them why did they opt out? Now, if it’s a legit reason, you can’t blame anybody for being scared of COVID-19. It is what it is. Nobody knew what it was when the opt-outs were happening and I mean, he could have a family member, or whatever the case may be. So a lot of these guys have legit reasons, but you do want to ask that, though.”
Here are Caskey’s evaluations of each of the draft’s top backs:
Najee Harris
2020 stats: 251 carries, 1,466 yards, 26 TDs (13 games) with Alabama.
NFL comparison: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers.
Caskey’s evaluation: “I’d say he’s really the only guy that is a possible first-rounder this year just the way that things have been going the last few years. … He’s a big guy. He’s a senior, he’s played a lot of ball. Obviously, he’s won a lot of games. But he’s been in a pro-style offense. Now, you can’t really overstate the fact that that’s a big deal because a lot of running backs don’t play from under center and then a lot of NFL teams are under center. So not only do the quarterbacks have issues taking snaps when they’ve never done that, it’s taking a handoff and being used to taking a handoff but not having your eyes on the ball and coming from a different spot. That’s really a big deal for a lot of teams. I think he’s elusive for a big back. He’ll lower the boom on guys, too, now. He’ll try to make you miss, but he’ll try to run you over.”
Javonte Williams
2020 stats: 157 carries, 1,140 yards, 19 TDs (11 games) with North Carolina.
NFL comparison: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals.
Caskey’s evaluation: “He’s not as tall as Najee Harris, but he’s still a big guy. He likes to run inside. I do think he has the ability to be a passing threat, every-down back, so he has a lot of those traits on film. Catching the ball out of the backfield, doing different things. He does look tough, so I think he would be a good pass protector, but again, you don’t see a whole, whole lot of that on his film. But I do think with him being that dual threat and being able to be an every-down back if you need him to be brings a lot of value.”
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Travis Etienne
2020 stats: 168 carries, 914 yards, 14 TDs (12 games) with Clemson.
NFL comparison: D’Andre Swift, Lions.
Caskey’s evaluation: “Playmaker. I mean, the dude’s made a lot of plays. If you’ve watched college football, you’ve seen this guy and explosive in space. I mean, this guy’s not a big guy but he can run between the tackles. I do think he’s a third-down back when it comes to passing downs. When I say that, passing the ball to him. Putting him in a receiver position. Protection’s going to need work cause he did have some on film where he’s just got to learn to go in and take on defenders a little better. But that’s something that you can get better at over time, it just may not be right off the bat.”
Kenneth Gainwell
2020 stats: DNP, opt out from Memphis.
NFL comparison: J.D. McKissic, Washington.
Caskey’s evaluation: “This guy’s real fast … He’s not a big guy at all. He’s a much smaller guy. He’s a threat in space, but this guy’s acceleration is unreal now. He’s got some really good acceleration, make you miss. I think protection’s going to be an issue. … He’s got a lot of those same real, just quick, just kind of almost goofy-quick type of moves that he can make people miss with. And J.D. had that. J.D. didn’t have that top-end speed, but he was making enough people miss that it didn’t matter.”
Chuba Hubbard
2020 stats: 133 carries, 625 yards, 5 TDs (six games) with Oklahoma State.
NFL comparison: Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Caskey’s evaluation: “Lots of production. Patience. Good acceleration. I feel like he’s got a little bit of that Le’Veon Bell-ish type of run style to him at times where he’ll measure it up and then accelerate past guys, which I think is a pretty good quality to have. It doesn’t work all the time, but it’s a good quality to have. He’s got good drive, like at the end of the run. He’s one of those guys that likes contact. I don’t think he’s as good in space as he just straight ahead. … Gonna be a good player. Probably not one of those guys that just stands out every game, but he’s going to do enough production to do good in the league.”
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.