Allen Park — Throughout the past couples of weeks, Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell has been reminding everyone who will listen that his team is so close to getting its first victory.
Obviously, no explanation was needed after the Lions lost on an NFL record 66-yard field goal against the Baltimore Ravens a couple of weeks back, but after falling 24-14 to Chicago last Sunday, Campbell has said multiple times his team was two plays away from changing the result.
Sure, if the Lions had executed on two of their four failed trips inside the 10-yard line, maybe they win. On the other hand, if the Bears execute better on two plays, it’s possible the margin of victory is larger than 10. That’s how those hypotheticals work.
The fact of the matter is the Lions are winless through what would have been the quarter pole of the schedule, had the league not added a 17th game this offseason. If we’re being honest, that’s probably where many outside observers expected them to be at this point. But, to Campbell’s point, they’ve been every contest, so in reality, they might be a little further ahead than anticipated, as far as competitiveness.
With that in mind, we thought we’d take a look under the proverbial hood and take a deep statistical look at where the Lions are making strides early in Campbell’s tenure, as well as the flaws that are continuing to hold the franchise back.
The Good
► 2.89 and 21.9: Even without left tackle Taylor Decker, who has been sidelined all four games following finger surgery, the Lions offensive line has lived up its billing as the roster’s clear strength.
Starting with the group’s pass protection, quarterback Jared Goff has had 2.89 seconds to throw per dropback, well above league average. And even though he’s being afforded more time to hold on to the ball, he’s only facing pocket pressure 21.9% of the time, which is below league average.
► 1.2: Part of consistently having more time in the pocket to process through reads had also resulted in Goff making less mistakes with the ball. He would probably be the first to tell you that his two interceptions were ball decisions, but through four games, only 1.2% of his throws have been picked. That’s halved from a year ago, when he finished tied for third in the NFL with 13 picks.
Another factor that limits Goff’s turnovers is making good decisions with the football. Only Patrick Mahomes has a lower percentage of tight-window pass attempts, defined as throws where there’s a defender within a yard of the intended target when the ball arrives. Those account for just 9.3% of his attempts.
► 3.6: Coming back to the offense line, the Lions made running the ball a point of emphasis throughout the offseason and the blocking has done its part. Despite Detroit’s backs facing stacked boxes — eight or more defenders — more than 30% of the time, the team’s ball carriers are averaging 3.6 yards per carry before first contact. That ranks third in the NFL.
► 3.1: It can at least partially be attributed to a quarterback who doesn’t take as many risks, but Detroit’s pass-catchers have done a good job securing the ball this season, dropping just 3.1% of catchable throws. That doesn’t rank inside the top-10 across the league, but the Lions were dead last a year ago, dropping passes twice as often.
► 28.3, 24.3 and 8.2: Finally, some praise for the much-maligned defense. After years of witnessing Matt Patricia’s scheme generating minimal pass-rush pressure, fans have been clamoring for a more blitz-heavy attack. And while no one will confuse the Lions with the Steelers or Ravens in that regard, new coordinator Aaron Glenn has been sending an extra rusher on 28.3% of opposing drop backs, contributing to Detroit getting pressure on 24.3% of pass plays. That’s up from 17.5% a year ago.
And while the Lions are in the middle of the pack with nine sacks, that has more to do with opportunities. Detroit’s sack percentage of 8.2 impressively ranks eighth.
► 27.8: This is Glenn’s favorite stat, and what he believes is an important barometer for future success with his group. When the Lions have struggled to be effective on early downs, and have given up far too many big plays (more on that in a minute), they’ve been tough when they have the potential to end drives.
Opponents are converting on just 27.8% of their third downs. Only the Carolina Panthers have been better at this early stage of the season.
► 184: Detroit has had some untimely penalties this season, to be sure. There were the two false starts ahead of fourth-and-1 attempts, and Jerry Jacobs running out of bounds on punt coverage that negated a fumble recovery. But, in the grand scheme of things, the Lions are limiting the self-inflicted damage via flags. The team’s 184 penalty yards against is the fourth-fewest for any team.
The Bad
► 6.8: Outside of the Monday night game against Green Bay, when Goff came out red hot, the Lions have struggled to muster much offense out the gate. The team is currently tied for 29th, averaging 6.8 points in the first half. Worse yet, they’ve been shut out in the first halves of their past two games.
You simply can’t start that slow and expect to win games. The Lions are consistently finding themselves in double-digit deficits in the third and fourth quarter, preventing them from maintaining offensive balance down the stretch.
► 6.55: For all the time Goff is being gifted in the pocket, he’s not taking advantage of utilizing downfield and longer-developing route concepts. When the Lions acquired the quarterback in a trade this offseason, among the biggest concerns was his steadily decreasing air yards per attempt, how far he was throwing downfield, on average. After ranking 32nd in the league with 6.5 air yards per attempt last year, he’s repeating that performance his first year in Detroit, checking in at 6.55 yards.
► 33.3: While the Lions defense has been steady on third downs, the offense can’t say the same. When attempting to extend drives, the Lions are coming up short of the sticks two-thirds of the time. Their 33% conversion rate ranks 27th in the NFL.
To Campbell’s credit, he’s been aggressive on fourth downs, opting to go for it a league-high 10 times, but the offense has similarly struggled there, converting on just three of those attempts.
► 0.7: While the offensive line and tight ends have done an excellent job creating running lanes for Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift, the backfield tandem isn’t doing enough to take advantage of their opportunities. In fact, Detroit’s 0.7 yards per carry after contact is the worst in the NFL.
Additionally, the duo has broken just five tackles on carries, with Williams accounting for 80% of them.
► 13.1: Opposing quarterbacks are showing no fear attacking the Lions deep. In fact, the average depth of their targets is a staggering 13.3 yards, by far the worst in the league. Next on the list is the Denver Broncos at 10.5 yards, and no one was worse than 9.2 yards a season ago.
Detroit’s issues in the secondary have been numerous, from communication to physical following the losses of Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu to injury. But if they can’t stop the gaping holes in coverage, the path to the team’s first win will be tough.
► 47.6, 83.3: The Lions are allowing 29.8 points per game, which ranks 29th, but it’s the staggering inefficiency of keeping opponents off the scoreboard that’s even more troubling.
Currently, 47.6% of opponents’ drives are ending in a score. And when that opposition finds their way into the red zone, they’re coming away with touchdowns 83.3% of the time. Both figures rank among the bottom five in the league.
► 5.8: Overall, Detroit’s rushing defense has been slightly below average, allowing opponents to gain 4.4 yards per carry. The problem isn’t the heart of the defensive line, which has limited teams to 3.2 yards per carry on running plays off center or either guard. But setting the edges has been problematic.
On off-tackle or edge runs, the Lions are allowing 5.8 yards per carry. Opponents are clearly attacking this weakness as the Lions are seeing a high frequency of carries off right tackle and around both the left and right end, ranking top-five for having to defend each type of directional carry.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers