For everyone who preached a “wait and see” attitude toward Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff before the season began … well, we have waited, and we have seen Goff prove he’s not the answer.
While the sixth-year QB is ninth in passing yards (1,995) and 14th in completion percentage (66.9%), he has struggled at stretching the field, ranking No. 33 (in a 32-team league) in average air yards per pass at 6.1, more than half a yard less than No. 32 Kirk Cousins. (Goff also leads the league — we think — in fourth-down passes intentionally thrown out of bounds, with TWO.)
Which means, of course, that it’s time to start dreaming about the 2022 NFL draft, in which the winless (and staring at 0-17) Lions conveniently hold the inside lane to the No. 1 pick. They’ll also have the Los Angeles Rams’ first-round pick, which should slot into the final half-dozen on the first night of the draft, and their own second-rounder which, again, could top that round. All together, that’s potentially three picks in the top 33, which would give the Lions plenty of options. (Especially if they go with Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux with their top pick.)
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Even more fortuitously, two of the top draft-eligible FBS quarterbacks this season —Mississippi’s Matt Corral and Liberty’s Malik Willis — are meeting on Saturday in Oxford, Mississippi. (The two actual best QBs this season — Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young — won’t be draft-eligible until 2023, in case you were wondering.) In honor of the impending QB showdown, let’s look at their seasons so far, plus a dozen other potential picks.
The top tier
Our two standouts (so far) face each other Saturday at noon on the SEC Network.
Matt Corral, Ole Miss
Corral has passed for 2,202 yards and rushed for 519, with 25 total touchdowns (15 passing, 10 rushing), with showcase games against Louisville to open the season (381 yards, 68.8% completion percentage) and Tennessee in mid-October. (Before the golf balls and mustard bottles flew from the stands in Neyland Stadium, Corral passed for 231 yards and rushed for 195 on 30 carries.) The junior hasn’t been quite as accurate as he was last season, completing 66% of his passes in 2021, compared to 70.9% in 2020. But his interceptions are way down, with two in eight games (compared to 14 in 10 2020 games), and he has been a true threat on the ground, averaging 4.7 yards a carry. If Corral fails to impress this weekend, he’ll have another shot on Nov. 13 when the Rebels host No. 13 Texas A&M. (Ole Miss finishes up against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, which should give a boost to Corral’s passing numbers) Of course, the question remains: How will Corral fare in the NFL without coach Lane Kiffin to scheme up the offense?
Malik Willis, Liberty
Willis is arguably the top dual threat QB in the field, as he’s averaging 220.7 yards passing and 76 yards rushing per game (including a 5.4-yard average per carry). He’s also completing 66.7% of his passes and has 21 passing touchdowns, six interceptions and nine rushing touchdowns. All six of his picks came in back-to-back weeks, with a pair of three-interception games against Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe. That, of course, speaks to his big weakness so far: A lack of success against top competition. Willis was 14-for-19 passing for 205 yards and three touchdowns (along with 17 carries for 49 yards) in his lone game against a Power Five opponent, a loss to Syracuse on Sept. 24. After Saturday’s game against Ole Miss, the independent Flames have just two more scheduled games: Nov. 20 against Louisiana (ranked No. 24 in the AP poll) and Nov. 27 against Army. (A bowl berth could bring another Power Five matchup, but don’t bet on it.)
Holding steady
These QBs have basically done what we thought they would before the season began.
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Ridder is the definition of “doing what’s expected,” leading the Bearcats to an 8-0 record while completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,847 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. The College Football Playoff committee was seemingly unimpressed, ranking Cincy at No. 6 on Tuesday; NFL front offices may be similarly “meh” over his signature win so far: Oct. 2 over Notre Dame, in which he was 19-for-32 for 297 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Kedon Slovis, USC
An injury cost him nearly all of the Trojans’ Week 3 win over Washington State, and almost his starting job — but backup Jaxson Dart (yes, really) was himself injured, handing the job back to Slovis. In the five games since, he has completed 66.1% of his passes for 307 yards a game, plus eight total touchdowns and six total interceptions, with USC going 2-3.
Carson Strong, Nevada
A lot of late starts and the Mountain West’s lackluster TV deal have obscured Strong’s excellent season: The junior has completed 71.3% of his passes for 2,883 yards, 24 touchdowns and five interceptions over eight games. The biggest knock on him: Strong is far from mobile, thanks to multiple knee injuries dating back to high school. Judge him for yourself when the Wolf Pack host Air Force on FS1 in a Friday-night matchup in Reno on Nov. 19.
Now entering the conversation
These three QBs made some believers with some scorching early numbers.
Brennan Armstrong, Virginia
Armstrong piled up nearly a full season’s worth of stats — 3,557 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 271 yards rushing and seven rushing touchdowns — in just nine games, including six starts with at least 360 yards passing. Good thing, too, since he was knocked out of the Cavaliers’ Oct. 30 loss to BYU with a rib injury, leaving the rest of his season in doubt.
Jayden Daniels, Arizona State
His 1,734 yards passing, seven passing touchdowns and five interceptions are less than impressive, but he has completed 68.5% of his passes — tops in the Pac-12 — in the Sun Devils’ run-heavy offense; ASU is averaging 194.6 yards a game on the ground, sparked by Daniels’ 54 rushing yards per game (on 5.5 yards a carry).
Kenny Pickett, Pitt
Pickett’s losses this season — to Western Michigan and Miami (Florida) — have almost been more impressive than his wins; the redshirt senior was 72-for-86 (72.1%) passing for 901 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Then again, in Pitt’s six wins — against UMass, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson — Pickett is 145-for-213 (68.1%) for 1,854 yards, 15 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Hit the mute button
These three QBs just haven’t lived up to their buzz.
Sam Howell, North Carolina
The junior took a big step back (just like many of the Tar Heels) this season; his seven interceptions through eight games have already matched last season’s 12-game total and his completion percentage dropped from 68.1% to 63.2%. One bright spot: Howell has averaged 5.2 yards a carry for 595 yards (despite losing nearly 100 yards in sacks) and six touchdowns. Howell can pick up a bit of first-round shine at noon Saturday with a star turn against No. 9 Wake Forest (yeah, we didn’t think we’d ever type those words either) on ABC.
Brock Purdy, Iowa State
After a nightmarish performance against nonconference rival Iowa in Week 2, in which Purdy completed just 13 passes to his teammates and three to Hawkeyes defenders, he recovered with sharp performances against Kansas (77.3% completion percentage, 4 TDs), Kansas State (88%) — yes, we know, that’s what the Kansas schools are there for — and Oklahoma State (81.8%, 307 yards). But last week’s loss to West Virginia, in which Purdy hit just 59.3% of his passes for 185 yards, brought him back down to earth.
Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
Turns out coach Lincoln Riley doesn’t have a Midas-like touch when it comes to Heisman QBs after all; Rattler struggled all season — even his lone 300-yard game, against Tulane in Week 1, was marred by two interceptions in a one-score victory — before being benched for freshman Caleb Williams. Barring a reversal of fortune in the Sooners’ final three scheduled games (plus a potential Big 12 title game and a bowl), Rattler is more likely to transfer than he is to declare for the 2022 draft.
Incomplete grades
These three QBs just haven’t been able to stay healthy.
Sean Clifford, Penn State
Completing 87.5% of his passes against Auburn in mid-September vaulted him into draft conversations; suffering an undisclosed injury on Oct. 9 against Iowa (and an unhealthy-looking performance in the Nittany Lions’ 9OT loss to Illinois two weeks later) quieted that talk. He was 35-for-52 for 361 yards, a touchdown and a late interception in Penn State’s Oct. 30 loss to Ohio State, though; upcoming games against Michigan on Nov. 13 and Michigan State on Nov. 27 should tell us a lot more.
JT Daniels, Georgia
Daniels hasn’t played since a 62-0 victory over Vanderbilt on Sept. 25, when he was 9-for-10 passing for 129 yards and two TDs before suffering a lat injyry. He appears close to 100% — healthwise, that is — after suiting up as the Bulldogs’ No. 2 QB last week against Florida. Will he start again for Georgia, or be kept in reserve for the inevitable Stetson Bennett meltdown? We’ll get an idea when the Bulldogs host Missouri at noon Saturday (ABC).
Michael Penix Jr., Indiana
The lefty is electric when healthy, but he has had his 2018, 2019 and 2020 seasons ended by, respectively, a torn ACL, a broken clavicle and another torn ACL; this season, he has missed the Hoosiers’ past three games with a separated throwing shoulder suffered against Penn State, making him one of the few people suffering more than Lions fans recently.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.