Detroit Lions (0-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
The coaches: Lions-Dan Campbell (5-15 overall, 0-8 with Lions); Steelers-Mike Tomlin (150-81-1 overall, 150-81-1 with Steelers).
Last game: Lions lost to Philadelphia Eagles, 44-6. Steelers beat Chicago Bears, 29-27.
Last meeting: Oct. 29, 2017: Steelers won, 20-15.
Key matchups
Lions RT Penei Sewell vs. Steelers OLB T.J. Watt: Taylor Decker’s pending return at left tackle bumps Sewell to right tackle, where he will make his first career start at the position against one of the game’s elite pass rushers. Sewell played right tackle this preseason, including in an exhibition game against the Steelers, when Watt did not play. He was solid in eight starts at left tackle and has the athleticism to play anywhere up front, but switching sides isn’t easy. Watt has 11.5 sacks in just seven games this season and is coming off a three-sack day against the Bears. He’s lightning quick with his first step. Expect the Lions to give Sewell plenty of help on the edge.
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth vs. Lions S Tracy Walker: The Steelers run their offense through rookie back Najee Harris, and the Lions will devote plenty of resources to stopping him, which could open things up for another rookie, Freiermuth, in the passing game. Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t throw downfield much these days, but Freiermuth has three touchdown catches the past two weeks and is a red zone weapon because of his size. Walker won’t be the only Lion tasked with covering Freiermuth, but the two could match up near the goal line, where the Lions have struggled mightily on defense this fall.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Steelers run defense
Jamaal Williams will miss his second straight game with a thigh injury, which means the Lions will ride D’Andre Swift in the backfield. Swift leads all NFL running backs with 47 receptions but has been bottled up as a runner, averaging 3.2 yards per carry.
Rookie Jermar Jefferson played in two-back packages against the Eagles and Godwin Igwebuike could see time in a change-of-pace role, but the Lions need to get Swift going on the ground to keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush at bay. Having Decker and Sewell at tackle should help the Lions’ outside zone attack.
The Steelers had some issues with mobile quarterback Justin Fields last week, but they’ve shut down good backs like Nick Chubb (16 carries, 61 yards) and Aaron Jones (15-48). Watt and Cam Heyward lead the charge up front, while former Michigan star Devin Bush is still making his way back from a torn ACL at linebacker. Edge: Steelers
Lions pass offense vs. Steelers pass defense
Campbell talked at length this week about the Lions’ need to get more out of their passing game, and about him taking a more active role in the game-planning to make it happen. Wanting to push the ball downfield and being able to are two different things, however, and the Lions are not equipped with much big-play capability.
Jared Goff has 10 turnovers in eight games and is last in the NFL in air yards per attempt and completion. The Lions claimed 6-foot-3 receiver Josh Reynolds off waivers, and while he should help eventually, it’s tough to see him having a big role after just two practices. Swift and T.J. Hockenson remain the Lions’ top two passing threats, but the Lions are scheming to get rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown more reps on the outside.
The Steelers rank among the NFL leaders in two key metrics, sacks per pass attempt and red zone efficiency. Watt is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate who can single-handedly wreck games, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is a ball hawk in the back end, though he’s still looking for his first interception this season. Edge: Steelers
Steelers run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Lions have had some success limiting their opponents’ rushing attack when that’s been the focus of their defensive gameplan, as will be the case Sunday. Harris is averaging 19 carries and five catches a game and is central to everything the Steelers do.
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“Really, really good back,” Lions linebackers coach Mark DeLeone said. “Strong, physical. Reminds you of another guy (Derrick Henry) who came out of the same school (Alabama) who’s playing. But yeah, he’s going to be a guy that we got to aggressively attack this week and we got to be outstanding in our tackling, and that’s going to be a big key for us. He’s a good back and we got to swarm him and we’ve got to get 11 guys to the ball one every play.”
The Lions rank 29th against the run this season at 134.5 yards per game and have allowed seven rushes of 20-plus yards. Rookie Derrick Barnes could see an increased role in the Lions’ linebacker rotation as he brings some thump to the position. Edge: Steelers
Steelers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Roethlisberger is a first-ballot of Hall-of-Fame quarterback, but he’s a below-average signal-caller in today’s NFL. He averages the second-fewest completed air yards per attempt (4.4), behind only Goff’s 3.7, and he gets the ball out of his hands faster than any quarterback (an average of 2.38 seconds) because he has become so immobile.
Dionte Johnson leads the Steelers with 45 catches and 530 yards, but Pittsburgh is down two of its other top receivers. Juju Smith-Schuster, who burned the Lions for a 97-yard touchdown in their last meeting in 2017, is out for the season after undergoing toe surgery and Chase Claypool won’t play Sunday because of a toe injury.
Roethlisberger will press his luck downfield on occasion against single-high safety looks, but the Lions might not deviate much from their two-high safety approach after defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said that’s been their best run defense package. A steady pass rush may be hard to come by for the Lions because Roethlisberger gets the ball out of his hands so quickly, but young cornerbacks Jerry Jacobs, A.J. Parker and Amani Oruwariye have to be on top of their tackling. Edge: Lions
Special teams
The Lions have played consistently well on special teams this season though kicker Austin Seibert is out with a hip injury that limited him in practice this week. Ryan Santoso, who made his only attempt as a Lion, will handle kicking duties in Seibert’s absence. Jack Fox is on pace to set a franchise mark for net punting (45.1 yards), and the Lions are just three weeks removed from their ultra-aggressive special teams performance against the Los Angeles Rams, when they pulled off two fake punts and a surprise onside kick.
Heinz Field is one of the toughest places to kick in the NFL, so it’s no small feat that Chris Boswell is 15-for-16 on field goals this year. Boswell has made all five of his attempts from 50-plus yards. The Steelers rank among the league leaders in punt return defense, allowing 6.4 yards per return. And former Lions special teams ace Miles Killebrew blocked a punt that the Steelers recovered for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills. Neither the Lions nor the Steelers have gotten many big plays out of their return game this season. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The Steelers have won four straight and have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but there are valid reasons to believe the winless Lions can get their first victory Sunday. Pittsburgh is coming off an emotional Monday night win over the Bears, playing on a short week, with three important conference games ahead, and does not have the type of high-powered offense that gives the Lions fits. The Lions are well-rested, coming off their bye and should get a lift from Decker’s return. I won’t go as far as predicting an upset here. The Lions have not played well enough for long enough stretches of time to think they will go on the road and beat a playoff contender. But this feels like a game that will be decided in the final minutes and maybe turn on one big mistake. Pick: Steelers 20, Lions 17.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.