Fantasy Football Week 17 Bold Prediction: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

SideLion Report

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most productive wide receivers in the NFL over the past month, but can he keep it going in Week 17?

In the month of December, only one wide receiver had more catches and three had more receiving yards than Lions rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (35 and 340 respectively) as he became the no-brainer choice for NFL Rookie of the Month.

As easily assumed, St. Brown has also been a top-tier fantasy wide receiver over the last four weeks (WR4 in full PPR, WR5 in standard scoring, via Fantasy Pros), with three top-six finishes in full PPR.

Josh Reynolds is expected to be cleared from the COVID-19 list in time for Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks, but Kalif Raymond was placed on the list Thursday and he’s likely out for Sunday. Quarterback Jared Goff is likely to miss a second straight game (listed as doubtful), this time with a lingering knee issue after missing Week 16 on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All of those things could impact St. Brown in Week 17.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Bold Prediction: Amon-Ra St. Brown

In a broad sense it doesn’t look like a great matchup in Week 17, since the Seahawks are in the top-10 of the league in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. But Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus has shined light on a positive line for St. Brown.

With Tim Boyle lined up to start under center for the Lions again Sunday, fortunately we have a one-game sample from last week to lean on.

St. Brown had, as seen above, nine receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 when Boyle started. His 11 targets were good for a 32.4 percent target share from Boyle–only one other player (Reynolds) had more than five targets.

The return of D’Andre Swift will likely eat into St. Brown’s target share–even if it’s only a handful of looks in the passing game for the Lions’ top running back. But that’s a handful of targets St. Brown might have otherwise gotten in recent weeks.

The Lions probably won’t score a ton of points on Sunday. But the Seahawks defense will surrender yardage in the passing game, and St. Brown is on quite a run that was not impacted by a quarterback change. If you’ve gotten this far awaiting my bold prediction for the Lions rookie wide receiver in Week 17, here it is…

Amon Ra St. Brown will be a top-five fantasy WR in Week 17 in all scoring formats, and the WR1 in full PPR

St. Brown has helped fantasy managers get through the playoffs, and he’ll help cash in a lot of league titles in Week 17.

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