Mark your calendars, Detroit Lions fans, because Feb. 13 is going to be a doozy.
That’s the day Super Bowl LVI — or 56 for those of us who, you know, don’t walk around wearing togas and laurel wreaths anymore — will be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
Feb. 13 is also the day, if things go according to plan in the Faustian deal he appears to have made, that Matthew Stafford will not only win his first Super Bowl but also will secure his spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
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Like I said. It’s going to be a doozy.
Yes, Matthew Stafford, who toiled for 12 seasons in Detroit for an inept franchise with clueless owners, ineffective coaches and no supporting cast outside of Calvin Johnson — or at least that’s how the narrative is currently being chiseled onto his plaque in Canton — is four quarters away from one day being fitted for a gold jacket.
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If Stafford wins the Super Bowl, not only will he become a Hall of Famer, but it’s possible that if no other worthy quarterbacks are being voted on as finalists in his first year of eligibility, he could easily be a first-ballot inductee.
Yes, Matthew Stafford, who toiled for 12 seasons in Detroit with only a bunch of tackling dummies for teammates, could be less than two weeks away from immortality.
Some of you may think a first-ballot election is far-fetched, or possibly even an election after one measly Super Bowl title and four playoff wins. But there are two main components that make his election to the Hall not only possible, but likely.
The first are his stats. He ranks 12th all-time in both passing yards and touchdowns at age 33, and he’s likely to finish his career near the top five. Stats alone would never have gotten Stafford into the Hall, but when outrageous numbers are coupled with a championship and the right narrative, that’s an argument that can’t be beaten.
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And that’s what’s happening as we watch Stafford rewriting his own history while attempting to scribble his name into the ledger of football legends in one magnificent season. Not only did he lead the Los Angeles Rams to a 12-5 record and his first division title, but he’s also had an amazing ride through the playoffs, which he punctuated with a great performance in the NFC championship game.
If the NFL voted for MVPs after each playoff game, Stafford would have three MVPs so far this postseason, especially for his two-touchdown effort to beat the San Francisco 49ers, 20-17, on Sunday.
If the Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals in the Super Bowl, Stafford is highly likely to play a major role once again in that victory, which means he will be a cinch for the MVP. The award almost always goes to the QB, as it has nine of the past 12 times. The Rams are already the betting favorites to win the game and Stafford is the MVP favorite.
If Stafford’s resume features top-five marks in passing yards and TDs, plus a Super Bowl MVP, I can’t see an argument for keeping him out of the Hall, the process for which is both gifted and cursed with human subjectivity. Even astute Hall of Fame voters tend to forgive shortcomings, if they’re cast in the right light, and give inordinate weight to achievement.
Let me give you an example. Years ago, when Johnson was winding down his career, my colleague Dave Birkett and I would play an informal game. When a Hall of Fame voter would visit Allen Park, we would ask them to predict whether Johnson would make the Hall. Generally, these voters expressed optimism but were concerned about his longevity and his lack of meaningful games and records. I don’t think we ever asked if he would be a first-ballot guy, which of course seems silly now.
I’m certainly not comparing Stafford to Johnson, but concerns about Stafford’s shortcoming should be washed away by the limelight of a victory celebration, followed by the nostalgic, sepia-toned memories that come with five years of reflection.
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As for the inordinate weight that’s given to achievement, that part of Stafford’s narrative is taking place right now. It goes like this:
This season and this playoff run proves Stafford always had the ability to lead the Lions to a Super Bowl, but his talent was squandered by an inept franchise that has — stop me if you’ve heard this one before — won fewer postseason games in the Super Bowl era than he has won in a month. After paying his dues for 12 years in Detroit, Stafford finally earned his long-deserved championship.
Nothing should be taken away from how well Stafford has played this season and especially this postseason. The two touchdown passes to Cooper Kupp on Sunday were two of the finest throws I’ve seen any quarterback make.
But by the time Hall of Fame voters gather — I want to say as Zoom holograms while the upsilon variant of COVID-35 rages — no one will remember that Stafford, while an important piece, was still just a piece of a larger puzzle the Rams had constructed for years. It wasn’t until owner Stan Kroenke gave general manager Les Snead the OK this season to push all his chips to the middle of the table to trade, sign or steal any free agent, that Stafford’s dream of lifting the Lombardi Trophy could come true.
And if you think there’s any kind of Rams blueprint that the Lions or any other NFL team can copy, forget it. Because unless you have a tycoon who owns a handful of major-league pro franchises and is OK with a GM allergic to first-round draft picks, the Rams model is as likely and sustainable as Thelma and Louise’s plan for ditching the law.
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So Stafford was never the do-it-all-by-myself hero, like he was expected to be in Detroit. He needed a lot of help to get to the Super Bowl. Big deal. Most players do. But painting him as the victim in Detroit and the savior in L.A. isn’t accurate.
I don’t know how Lions fans feel about Stafford doing what he’s doing for the Rams in one season that he couldn’t do in 12 seasons for Detroit. Maybe you’re happy for him. Maybe not. Maybe it’s more complicated and there’s no easy answer.
There’s only one thing I’m sure of, for Lions fans, when it comes to Stafford. They know where they’ll be and what they’ll be doing on Feb. 13.
Contact Carlos Monarrez at cmonarrez@freepress.com and follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.