Fantasy Football: Sell high on Amon-Ra St. Brown?

SideLion Report

After he won a lot of leagues with a fantastic closing stretch to his rookie season, is it time to sell-high on Amon-Ra St. Brown in fantasy football?

From Week 13-17, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has WR2 in full and 0.5-point PPR fantasy scoring. From Week 15-17, he was WR1 in standard, full and 0.5-point PPR scoring (according to Fantasy Pros). That’s what we call a league-winning player in the business, and St. Brown was also available on plenty of waiver wires deep into the season after he started his rookie season slowly.

St. Brown was one of the most productive wide receivers in the NFL over the final six weeks of the 2021 season. That reeks of looming regression, as the Lions expect to have running back D’Andre Swift and tight end T.J. Hockenson healthy next season and an upgrade or two at wide receiver this offseason is in the air too. But there’s still optimism around St. Brown looking to next season.

Fantasy Football: Time to sell high on Amon-Ra St. Brown?

Dynasty fantasy football is a year-round thing for those that partake. So even in February and early March roster maneuvering is on the table, with opportunities to be identified and perhaps moved in on.

Back in late-January, Bradley Stalder of Fantasy Data made a list of “7 Dynasty Players You Need to Sell Now.” St. Brown led the list, with a nod to where he’s broadly being valued as a top-75 overall player in dynasty and the segment of wide receivers he’s close to (Calvin Ridley, Brandon Aiyuk, Keenan Allen). Stalder’s “bullet points” bolster the case to “sell, sell, sell” St. Brown.

-The Detroit Lions will return TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift to full health, along with another young receiver Quintez Cephus. Before the injuries to Hockenson & Swift, St. Brown averaged a 14.8% target share, with only three of those weeks eclipsing 20%. St. Brown averaged a whopping 32.9% target share from week 12 onward but only ran on average 3-4 more routes per game more than his first 10 weeks. The Lions’ offense became St. Brown-centric after the loss of both Hockenson and Swift near the end of the season and with both expected back, St. Brown’s ceiling will certainly be limited.

-The Lions may draft a WR in the early rounds.

-The Lions may sign another wide receiver. Christian Kirk, DJ Chark, and Allen Robinson all would realistically command target shares meaningful enough to limit St. Brown even further than the return of Swift & Hockenson.

Salder offered the numbers to show St. Brown’s massive target share down the stretch, which we already knew was the case.

Some early indications of St. Brown’s dynasty fantasy stock heading toward 2022 seem to be riding on the sugar-high of his rookie season finishing stretch. That would make now a time to sell-high for those who are motivated to try, before a correction (but not a future collapse) comes. But it’s also possible the return in a “sell high” dynasty trade with St. Brown isn’t that great (h/t to KeepTradeCut.com’s dynasty trade calculator).

So if you have St. Brown in a dynasty league, are you selling or holding? I assume buying is not an option right now, unless the manager who has him is willing to sell cheap based on what little they had to do to acquire him last season.

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