INDIANAPOLIS — Antwaan Randle El is about to get his wish.
Randle El, the Detroit Lions wide receivers coach, said at the Senior Bowl he hoped the Lions would add three receivers this offseason, including one who could be a true difference maker on the outside.
I’m not sure how many pass catchers the Lions will end up adding to their nucleus before next season, but my big takeaway from four days at the NFL combine this week is that I expect the Lions to be major players in the receiver market when free agency opens later this month.
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The agent for one of the top pending free agent receivers said the Lions indicated in a meeting last week they value his receiver in the same financial ballpark he expects his player to fetch in free agency, and multiple other sources view the Lions as legitimate contenders to sign one of the position’s premier free agents.
Outside of Davante Adams, who appears ticketed for the franchise tag or an extension with the Green Bay Packers (unless something changes with the Aaron Rodgers situation), I could see the Lions pursuing one of Allen Robinson, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin or Christian Kirk, among others.
I don’t know the Lions’ pecking order of preferred players, but Robinson, a Detroit native, and Williams, who had career-highs of 76 catches and 1,146 yards last season, have the size the Lions covet on the outside, while Godwin and Kirk are elite slot receiver options who would make for an interesting pairing with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
The Lions’ desire to improve their receiving corps runs deep and is rooted in logic that new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson explained in detail last week.
The Lions were “efficient in the passing game” last season, Johnson said, but “weren’t nearly as explosive or (did not) have the yards per attempt that we would like to get to truly unlock what we want to be able to do on offense.”
Specifically, the Lions struggled in the red zone and third-down situations, where they ranked 31st in the league in both categories. Johnson said adding a true X receiver would help unlock an offense that already has a good tight end in T.J. Hockenson and potentially one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
“In particular, when we get down there (in the red zone), the size matchups make a huge difference,” Johnson said. “That was another thing that we brought up (in our self-scout) is how many times did we really throw it outside the numbers when we got down there tight? And probably below league average. So that’s something we need to look at and need to continue to explore.”
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There is no guarantee the Lions come away with one of the top free agent receivers (and I’d expand their interest to include players currently under contract like Calvin Ridley, who could be traded by the Atlanta Falcons, and Amari Cooper, who is a cut candidate with the Dallas Cowboys, though I did not hear the Lions linked to either of those players in particular).
It takes two to tango, after all. Their preferred target(s) could fetch more money or find better fits elsewhere, and the Lions having a general interest in players now does need mean they will extend meaningful contract offers to those players when the free agent negotiating window opens March 14.
But the Lions seem determined to build a young, aggressive defense and surround quarterback Jared Goff with as much talent as possible on offense. Goff reached a Super Bowl as quarterback of the Los Angeles Rams in 2018 when he had Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and a young Cooper Kupp by his side.
Lions coach Dan Campbell said often last season he did could not properly evaluate Goff given the dearth of talent around him. The reality is, Goff needs plenty of help to succeed and I expect the Lions to do their part in the coming weeks to bolster his supporting cast.
More takeaways from Indy
• You could make a compelling case the Lions should pass on top receiver talent in free agency and target upgrades through the draft, but one NFL receivers coach told me this week he was not as high on the group as some in the media.
This was before eight receivers ran sub-4.4-second 40-yard dashes, but the coach’s belief was there are no receivers in this draft as good as the dynamic trio at the top of last year’s draft — Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith were all top-10 picks — and that several of this year’s top prospects have injury concerns that could impact their production as rookies.
USC’s Drake London fractured his ankle in October and sat out drills at the combine, and Alabama receivers Jameson Williams and John Metchie suffered late-season ACL injuries. Both London and Williams are projected first-round picks.
If the Lions add a veteran receiver to pair with St. Brown and a healthy Quintez Cephus, they might be able to wait until Day 2 or 3 to draft a pass catcher. There is good depth at receiver in this draft, and Lions general manager Brad Holmes has a history of finding good value at the position with St. Brown last year (as a fourth-round pick) and players like Kupp, Van Jefferson and Josh Reynolds all taken between Picks No. 57 and 117 when Holmes was college scouting director of the Rams.
• I don’t have a good read yet on whether the Lions will consider a quarterback at No. 2, but two high-ranking offensive coaches whose teams are not in the market for a first-round quarterback said they see a gap between the top two QBs, Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis, and everyone else.
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Pickett had a standout senior season at Pitt and has his champions in the NFL. He played in a full-field-read offense, which should help his transition, and showed tremendous growth as a player last year. Willis is not nearly as polished, but he has a bazooka for an arm, exceptional mobility and undeniable strength in the pocket. Both players earn high marks for their leadership qualities.
The Lions certainly could go the draft-and-develop route with a high-upside player like Willis, but taking him at No. 2 seems a bit too rich given his current flaws. I gave Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson to the Lions in my first mock draft and don’t see that changing in my next one, unless I somehow mock Hutchinson to the Jaguars.
• Speaking of Jacksonville … it’s a foregone conclusion the Jaguars will put the No. 1 pick up for auction come April. The problem, of course, is that there does not appear to be a player teams will be compelled to go up and get. The Lions might actually be in a better position to trade at No. 2 with offensive linemen Evan Neal and Ickey Ekwonu a tier above their counterparts at the position.
I think the chances are slim of a trade out, but if Jacksonville takes one of those linemen at No. 1, maybe another offensive line-needy team picking in the top five feels compelled to move up.
• Lions running back Jamaal Williams tagged safety Tracy Walker in an Instagram post last week that several readers brought to my attention. Williams wrote, “Can’t wait to go back to war with my dawg T-WalkuhhSan,” which many took to mean Walker was returning to Detroit.
No deal is imminent with Walker and the Lions, though one certainly could be finalized next week. Walker had a nice season in 2021, and there is mutual interest in a return to Detroit — especially with safeties Jessie Bates and Marcus Williams among the franchise tag candidates.
• As I wrote earlier, I expect the Lions to spend much of their early draft capital on defense, where they have the chance to develop a deep, strong unit that will serve them well in the future.
Fans of the movie “Draft Day” will understand this, but for all the talk about pass rushers up top — and for good reason; the value warrants taking Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux, if the Lions deem him a culture fit — part of me wonders if Holmes has a yellow sticky note with, “Nakobe Dean no matter what,” somewhere in his office.
• One final thought: Count me among the many who hope the combine returns to Indianapolis in 2023. The NFL is considering moving the event to Dallas or Los Angeles. There probably is a lot of money in a move, and we know that always wins out. But I’d guess the overwhelming majority of NFL people like the combine where it is with great proximity to hotels, restaurants, event space and medical facilities, plus plenty of familiarity.
Location questions aside, there is less value in the combine (outside of the medical testing) than ever. Teams have access to an abundance of GPS play data that matters more than 40-yard dash and shuttle times, and they get more meaningful access to prospects for film sessions and interviews over Zoom than they do in-person in Indy.
Decision makers still want to see players compete on the field, especially prospects who may be jumbled at a position. But the pandemic spurred changes to the scouting process that are better for everyone involved.
I’d say the NFL and its teams should take a hard look at the need for the combine in its current form, but going back to the money, there’s no reason for the league to let go of a free pot of gold.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.