Near the end of his news conference to wrap up his first draft as Detroit Lions general manager, Brad Holmes shared a “core belief” he said will guide his approach to future drafts: “You don’t pass on good players.”
“That’s just bottom line,” Holmes said. “Now, I totally understand, there’s certain positions like, I would say we feel pretty good about the tackle position right now. I’m not sure if there’s another Penei (Sewell) that will be in the draft next year, but it’d be hard-pressed to say that we would immediately be looking for an upgrade over the tackle position. So I get all that. But at the end of the day, no, we just don’t pass on good football players.”
That multi-layered answer rang in my head as I sat down to do my second mock draft this week, the post-combine version.
I believe the Lions have an easy decision to make at No. 2 if Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is there. Hutchinson is the most complete defensive end in this year’s draft, and even if he is not on Myles Garrett’s level as a prospect, he seems to align perfectly with Dan Campbell’s vision for what the Lions should be about.
I had the Jacksonville Jaguars taking an offensive tackle at No. 1 in my pre-combine mock, with the Lions nabbing Hutchinson at two, and that scenario remains firmly in play about seven weeks till draft day.
But for my second mock, I wanted to explore the very real possibility — especially after Jacksonville used the franchise tag on left tackle Cam Robinson this week — the Jaguars take Hutchinson at No. 1, and leave the Lions with a much more difficult decision.
Hutchinson is roundly considered a top-five prospect in a draft where there does not appear to be a runaway No. 1. Offensive tackles Evan Neal of Alabama and Ikem Ekwonu of North Carolina State will end up with similar grades on many draft boards. Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton is a unique enough safety to merit top-five consideration. And Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux is similar to Hutchinson as a prospect, but with a higher ceiling and lower floor.
I did not consider a quarterback for the Lions at No. 2, and won’t unless I hear something to turn me on to their interest in a prospect. But I think two other pass rushers will be in consideration for the Lions up top: Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson and Georgia’s Travon Walker. Both were top-10 picks in my first mock draft, and both are intriguing fits for pass rush-needy teams who miss out on Hutchinson and are wary of Thibodeaux’s boom-or-bust potential.
Ultimately, I gave Thibodeaux to the Lions at No. 2, and working backwards — and using Holmes’ quote from last spring as a jumping off point — I’ll explain why.
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Position value and team needs matter when it comes to separating a group of, in this case, seven similarly graded prospects at the top of the draft.
Neal and Ekwonu are blue-chip linemen, and Neal in particular has been under the microscope as a top prospect for some time. But neither is quite on Sewell’s level as a prospect, even though Sewell’s grade was depressed some last year by his COVID-19 opt-out.
I can see the Jaguars, Houston Texans, New York Jets, New York Giants or any number of other teams craving a lineman up top, but I don’t think the same applies to the Lions, who have Sewell and Taylor Decker locked into the tackle positions. The Lions have the makings of a very good offensive line, and as Holmes indicated last year, spending another first-round pick on a lineman does not make a ton of sense.
The Lions do have a significant need at safety, one they may or may not fill in free agency next week, but I did not slot Hamilton to the Lions because he does not provide the type of positional value teams generally want with a top-two pick. Saquon Barkley in 2018 is the only non-quarterback, pass rusher or offensive tackle to go first or second overall in the past 11 drafts.
Hamilton, who had eight interceptions and 24 pass breakups in 31 career games at Notre Dame, may turn out to be the rare safety worth a top-five pick, a talent too good for the Lions to pass up. But Holmes’ history suggests he’s more likely to wait on the position.
The Los Angeles Rams drafted five safeties from 2017-20, all in Rounds 2-7, when they did not have a first-round pick. They found productive players in those spots, including Jordan Fuller (in the sixth round), Taylor Rapp (in the second) and John Johnson (in the third).
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Holmes was the Rams’ director of college scouting for each of those drafts, and this year’s draft has a number of starting-caliber safeties who project to go somewhere between picks 25-50, including Dax Hill of Michigan, Lewis Cine of Georgia and Jaquan Brisker of Penn State.
Ultimately, my pick for the Lions in Mock 2.0 came down to one of three pass rushers: Thibodeaux, Johnson or Walker. I won’t go as far as to say the Lions are determined to take a defensive end at No. 2, like they were to get an offensive tackle when their pick last year came down to Sewell and Rashawn Slater. But with their need for pass rush help, the positional value at that spot in the draft and the caliber of talent available, it makes sense.
Walker had an incredibly impressive combine and was a key part of Georgia’s NCAA-best defense, but his strength is in his versatility and he’s not quite the same caliber pass rusher as Thibodeaux or Johnson.
Johnson had an excellent season at Florida State after transferring from Georgia, and he shined at the Senior Bowl playing for Lions coaches, where he dominated drills rushing from both sides and from stand-up and hand-down positions. I had him slotted at No. 2 when I first started my mock, and only moved him out because of feedback I got from a scout in Indianapolis last week that Thibodeaux was the better prospect.
It would not surprise me if the Lions, after spending a week with Johnson at the Senior Bowl, value him higher than other teams, enough so that they take him No. 2 in the draft. I have more work to do on him as a prospect but can see myself sending him to the Lions if Hutchinson stays at No. 1 in future mocks.
For now, though, I went with Thibodeaux at No. 2. He was an impact player at Oregon, a disruptive force off the edge and has the chance to be a very good pro in a very short amount of time.
Admittedly, Thibodeaux, who has varied interests off the field and an answer for everything in interviews, seems like an odd match with the football-focused, no-shrills Campbell.
Perhaps that should be enough to steer me in another director. But with no known off-field concerns and plenty of get-to-know-you-time ahead, I harkened back to Holmes’ mantra to make the choice.
The Lions “don’t pass on good football players,” and Thibodeaux certainly fits that description.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.