With less than a month remaining until the 2022 NFL draft, there’s still a pervasive sense of mystery throughout the first round.
After a rash of trades significantly reshaped the order and left eight teams without picks on the first day, there’s still a high degree of uncertainty about which dominoes will fall first and set others into action. And while there are only a handful of teams remaining with unresolved quarterback situations for the upcoming season, it’s still not entirely clear which franchises could be in line to use an early draft pick on a signal-caller this spring.
Here’s our latest first-round projection for the 2022 NFL draft:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
Don’t start ordering the jerseys just yet, as general manager Trent Baalke and Jacksonville could still produce an 11th-hour surprise. After the Jaguars spent a record $175.3 million guaranteed in the first wave of free agency, however, all signs point to Hutchinson as the sensible selection. Edge rusher was one of the few areas that went unaddressed in the team’s spending spree, and setting the tone with a formidable running mate for Josh Allen, one of the team’s few building blocks, should be a priority. Hutchinson’s well-rounded athleticism and unwavering approach set him apart from his peers. Even if he doesn’t reach the heights of past top-five pass rushers, Hutchinson still looks like the kind of stable, high-end starter who could help launch a new era in Jacksonville.
2. Detroit Lions – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Is it time for general manager Brad Holmes to take a swing for Detroit’s long-term answer at quarterback? Jared Goff buys the franchise some time as a returning starter, but the Lions can’t lounge in limbo at the position indefinitely. A dazzling playmaker with his downfield darts and electric running to keep defenses off balance, Willis has the tools to take an offense to the next level if he’s developed properly. There are still big questions about whether a team can set him up for a considerable payoff, as his poise in the pocket leaves much to be desired. But Holmes said this week he would be comfortable drafting a quarterback to sit behind Goff, which could be the right configuration for both Willis and the Lions.
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3. Houston Texans – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Having finally separated from Deshaun Watson – and received a stockpile of picks for doing so – the Texans can begin the franchise’s next chapter in earnest. Given Houston’s interest in seeing what it has in second-year quarterback Davis Mills as its starter, grabbing one of this class’ most highly regarded offensive tackles would be a sound decision, even with left tackle Laremy Tunsil seemingly set to return on a restructured contract. The massive Neal (6-8, 337 pounds) declared at Alabama’s pro day he is comfortable handling any position as a rookie besides center. That should be plenty comforting to Mills, who took 31 sacks in 13 games last year.
4. New York Jets – Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
From his star turn in the College Football Playoff to his dazzling performance at the NFL scouting combine, Walker has enjoyed an unparalleled rise in the last several months. At this point, there might be a better chance of him going No. 1 overall rather than lasting this long. If he does make it to this juncture, GM Joe Douglas might be enamored with the upside of a 6-5, 272-pounder who moves like a linebacker (4.51-second 40-yard dash). His pass-rush skills are still a work in progress, so any defense bringing him on should exhibit patience – even if it averaged fewer than two sacks per game last year, as the Jets did.
5. New York Giants (from Chicago Bears) – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State
Despite adding two new starters on the interior in free agency, the new Big Blue regime of general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll shouldn’t yet feel comfortable with the state of the much-maligned offensive line. And while the Giants have a wide range of possibilities for how to use their two top selections, having either Neal or Ekwonu available at this spot would make their first decision fairly simple. Ekwonu looks to punish his opponent on running plays and is growing more comfortable in the pass game, making him an attractive option to slide in at right tackle.
6. Carolina Panthers – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
Frozen out of this offseason’s great quarterback reshuffling, Carolina appears to be headed into the draft in a place of desperation. General manager Scott Fitterer acknowledged this week that this pick will essentially boil down to taking a signal-caller or a left tackle. But in assessing his team’s outlook behind center, Fitterer said, “at some point, you have to take a shot.” Given the urgency to repair the passing game and the clear discomfort with Sam Darnold, the Panthers seem like a natural fit for Pickett, a four-year starter and school record holder. Pickett might be in for a rough transition if not afforded proper protection to help him speed up his processing, but he’s the kind of gamble Carolina might have to embrace at this spot.
7. Giants – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Is a safety a luxury for a team picking in the top 10, especially one as cap-strapped as the Giants are? Perhaps not when the player in question is Hamilton. At 6-4 and 220 pounds, he is the closest thing this class has to a do-it-all defender. While he can make his mark as the rare defensive back comfortable matching up with even the largest and most athletic tight ends, his true value might be as a deep safety who punishes any quarterback brave enough to test his range.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Atlanta is operating with a longer view than many other teams are, as made clear by GM Terry Fontenot’s acknowledgement that the team is “taking it on the chin” this upcoming season after the cap hit from the Matt Ryan trade. Still, even with an array of issues on defense, it’s easy to see how the Falcons would be drawn to Wilson, a dynamic target with a knack for acrobatic grabs and racking up yards after the catch. The Buckeyes standout would immediately elevate the league’s worst receiving corps, assisting Marcus Mariota this year and a potential early draft pick at quarterback in 2023.
9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos) – Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE/OLB, Oregon
Hard to figure out where to start with a Seattle team unwilling to embrace a rebuild despite lacking starting-caliber talent at several premium positions. Maybe the best route for Pete Carroll’s crew is to invigorate a pass rush due for a boost as the defense moves to more 3-4 looks. Or perhaps the Seahawks should just pray that any premier prospect falls to this slot. In either case, they would be lucky to land Thibodeaux, who at times has been downright dominant off the edge even without a full arsenal of pass-rush moves.
10. Jets (from Seahawks) – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
If Gang Green wants to bring “Sauce” aboard, it might need to consider doing so with its No. 4 overall pick. In this scenario, however, Robert Saleh lands the lengthy shutdown corner his scheme is due for. Adding the 6-3, 190-pound Gardner, who never gave up a touchdown in 33 career games at Cincinnati, alongside free-agent signing D.J. Reed would invigorate a position at which the Jets have woefully underinvested. And while the failed pursuit of Tyreek Hill might indicate an interest in a receiver in this slot, the blend of value and need should be too great for the Jets to turn away from Gardner.
11. Washington Commanders – Drake London, WR, USC
Dare we say Washington has the makings of a promising supporting cast for Carson Wentz? One of the last remaining tasks to help stabilize the passing attack would be to provide a capable No. 2 target to alleviate pressure on Terry McLaurin. Following in the footsteps of another former big-bodied USC receiver in Michael Pittman Jr., Wentz’s go-to target last year with the Colts, London should make life easier for his signal-caller thanks to his penchant for boxing out smaller defensive backs and his surprising fluidity for a player his size (6-4, 219 pounds).
12. Minnesota Vikings – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Patrick Peterson is back for another go in Minnesota, but the 31-year-old likely is a mere stopgap solution for a team desperate for support in the secondary. Perhaps the eight-time Pro Bowl selection could partake in a changing of the guard with Stingley, who looks in line to be LSU’s next top-flight cornerback. The two-time All-American still has to shake any doubts about his recovery from a Lisfranc injury, but a stellar showing at his April 6 pro day could boost his cause as a potential top-10 pick.
13. Texans (from Cleveland Browns) – Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State
In a class that likely will be defined by its top pass rushers, Houston should make a concerted effort to add some juice off the edge with at least one of its two first-round selections. While Johnson can’t match the premier athleticism of Hutchinson, Walker and Thibodeaux, he can regularly beat blockers with his length, bend and knowhow. And in a division that features Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, his run-stopping prowess will come in handy.
14. Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Where exactly does a 6-6, 341-pound defensive tackle find his place in the modern NFL? How about Baltimore, with a franchise that has coveted its jumbo defensive linemen? Davis is capable of generating significant pressure from the interior, and the Ravens could help him become more than just a big body at the next level.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins) – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Armed with three picks in the middle of the first round, the Eagles seem like a solid candidate to move back if they can find the right bidder. But Philadelphia should stand pat here, especially if in position to select Lloyd. A rangy defender comfortable chasing down ball carriers in space, shedding blocks in tight quarters or bringing heat as a blitzer, the 6-3, 237-pounder could be utilized in assortment of ways by defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon.
16. Eagles (from Indianapolis Colts) – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Safety presents the greater problem for Philadelphia’s secondary, but with no player at the position able to provide proper value at this slot, the Eagles shouldn’t force the issue. Measuring in a mere 5-11 and 193 pounds with limited ball production, McDuffie is by no means flashy, but he gives receivers no quarter and is a persistent pest to anyone he lines up against.
17. Los Angeles Chargers – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Fortifying the defense in key spots left the Bolts in good position to buttress their most important asset: star quarterback Justin Herbert. Cross is no mere consolation prize next to Neal and Ekwonu, and the experienced pass protector would give Los Angeles an outstanding long-term outlook up front opposite 2021 rookie standout Rashawn Slater.
18. New Orleans Saints – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
More clever cap maneuvering helped New Orleans again avert a great talent exodus, but left tackle Terron Armstead’s departure to Miami is a significant hit to an offense trying to navigate the post-Sean Payton landscape. Though Penning might face an extended learning curve while facing the likes of Shaq Barrett and Brian Burns after handling his Football Championship Subdivision competition, his frame (6-7, 325 pounds) and physicality are already at pro levels.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
Philadelphia still should be very much in the defensive end market after making a minimal investment in bringing back Derek Barnett. Pairing Josh Sweat with Karlaftis, a powerful presence who could help any line collapse the pocket, would give the Eagles potential cornerstones up front for the foreseeable future.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
In adding Mitchell Trubisky on a low-cost contract to compete with holdover Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh appears to be hoping a couple half-measures add up to a whole one in the team’s bid to find a replacement for Ben Roethlisberger. That approach, however, shouldn’t preclude the Steelers from considering a signal-caller here. Corral might not be ready to be a Day 1 starter and is difficult to project given his body of work came in an RPO-heavy offense, but there’s plenty to like in his swift release, improving discipline and ability to make tight-window throws.
21. New England Patriots – Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
Yes, Mac Jones needs more firepower at receiver and proper support from a defense that now looks suspect at cornerback. But the second-year quarterback also requires sufficient protection, which might be hard for his line to provide after losing both starting guards. While he might not be the most striking option available, the local product Johnson is one of this class’ most reliable prospects.
22. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas Raiders) – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Facing a barren collection of receivers after the defections of top targets Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, coach Matt LaFleur said this week the Packers “definitely need to get some speed in that room.” There’s no better solution for Green Bay in this draft than Olave, a bona fide deep threat whose precise route running should make him a fast favorite of Aaron Rodgers.
23. Arizona Cardinals – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Arizona is in an awkward spot as a playoff team saddled with an unusual amount of roster holes. While a cornerback or edge rusher could come into play here to boost the pass defense, the best answer might be taking Wyatt, who is just beginning to tap into his immense potential as an interior disruptor with a rapid first step.
24. Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Casting off La’el Collins and letting Connor Williams walk reinforced that Dallas’ offensive line has taken a serious step back. While adding Linderbaum would not fill either of the voids created by the offseason loss, the selection would represent a return to the approach that set the Cowboys up for success when they selected Tyron Smith, Tyler Frederick and Zack Martin with three of their four first-round picks from 2011-14.
25. Buffalo Bills – Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
If the Bills want to keep new division rival Tyreek Hill from flashing the peace sign as he races past their secondary, they’ll have to count on someone other than the officials to stop the Dolphins’ speedy receiver. Booth, who just underwent core muscle surgery but still has a strong case for the first round, could step in to address one of the unit’s few remaining shortcomings as Tre’Davious White returns from a torn ACL. His long speed isn’t his calling card, but his strength, nimble footwork and ball skills will help Buffalo’s top-ranked defense keep pace with high-powered passing attacks.
26. Tennessee Titans – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Subbing in Robert Woods for Julio Jones won’t do much to move the needle for a ho-hum passing attack. So long as he’s not slowed considerably by a torn ACL suffered in the National Championship Game, Williams stands as the most electric receiving threat in this year’s class.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Maybe the only things Tom Brady hates more than interior pressure are non-avocado ice cream and staying retired for more than 40 days. Tampa Bay already addressed the middle of its offensive front by re-upping center Ryan Jensen and trading for right guard Shaq Mason, but bringing on the steady and versatile Green would help fill the void left by left guard Ali Marpet’s retirement.
28. Packers – Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
While a team in win-now mode for Aaron Rodgers has more immediate areas of concern than an off-ball linebacker, Green Bay shouldn’t overlook Dean if he slides to the late first round. A magnet to the ball, he is the kind of defender that could prove vital for the Packers if they are to keep up with the likes of the Rams, 49ers and Buccaneers after the last three years of postseason disappointments.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco 49ers via Dolphins) – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Kansas City simply won’t be able to replace Tyreek Hill with one player, but GM Brett Veach and coach Andy Reid can instead try to account for his production in the aggregate by adding a first-round receiver to work alongside free-agent signings JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. At 6-2 and 225 pounds, Burks has the downfield playmaking ability to keep things running for Patrick Mahomes and Co., though he’ll need to acclimate to operating on the outside more often.
30. Chiefs – Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
While the situation at receiver might draw the bulk of headlines in Kansas City, the Chiefs also have a pressing problem with their pass rush, which has little to offer beyond defensive tackle Chris Jones as Melvin Ingram remains unsigned. A refined technician off the edge, Ebiketie has the skill set to contribute early in obvious passing situations, though he might take some time to become an every-down player.
31. Cincinnati Bengals – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
With the offseason reworking of the offensive line seemingly complete after the addition of three starters, Cincinnati can turn its focus to strengthening its secondary. The 6-2, 191-pound Elam and his relentlessly physical approach would no doubt come in handy in the AFC North.
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32. Lions (from Los Angeles Rams) – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Detroit’s defensive deficiencies are widespread, but coordinator Aaron Glenn’s scheme places a premium on safeties. An instinctive enforcer both as a run stopper and coverage presence, Cine is also the kind of leader whom coach Dan Campbell would covet.
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.