Allen Park — Brad Holmes is keeping things close to the vest, as he should. He’s not dropping hints, or even blowing smoke, as NFL general managers often do when the NFL Draft is approaching.
But here’s some unsolicited advice from the cheap seats for Lions when it comes to the No. 2 overall pick: When you’ve got the edge, take it.
Especially when it fills a glaring need the way any of the top edge rushers in this year’s draft class would for Holmes as he tries to build a winner from the ground up in Detroit.
Sure, they’ll need to find a long-term answer at quarterback one of these days. But there’s not much confidence around the league that there’s actually one to be found in this draft.
The Lions could use more help in the secondary — every team can, honestly. Yet drafting a second cornerback in the top three in three years doesn’t make a lot of sense, regardless of who’s calling the shots.
Maybe Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton really is the unicorn of this draft, as some have suggested, though taking a safety at No. 2 still feels more like fantasy than reality given the position he plays.
But if you’ve watched the Lions over the last several years, you’ve seen exactly why Holmes should be in a hurry to turn in the card for Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux or even Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson II once the Lions are on the clock next Thursday in Las Vegas. (Provided the phone isn’t ringing with trade calls, that is.)
Common weakness
Why? Because Detroit’s opponents haven’t felt rushed in years. The Lions have ranked in the bottom five in defensive pressure rates in each of the last five seasons. They were 31st in the league in pass-rush win rate last season. If you’re looking for a common thread among the two dozen losses the Lions have endured over the last two years, consider that Tampa Bay had 408 quarterback pressures in that time, compared to Detroit’s 229, according to Pro Football Reference. It’s as if one defense was playing tackle football, while the other was running 7-on-7 drills.
And in today’s pass-happy NFL, where quarterbacks are a protected species and blitzing seems to be going the way of the Brontosaurus — thanks in part to the evolution of mobile rocket-launchers like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — finding players who can win one-on-one battles at the line of scrimmage has to be a priority.
Particularly for the Lions, who re-signed Charles Harris, a former first-round pick that led the team with 7½ sacks last fall, but did nothing else on that front in free agency. Their other projected starter, Romeo Okwara, is coming off an Achilles injury. And though we saw flashes from Okwara’s younger brother, Julian, late last season, there’s far from any guarantees there. Or enough depth, regardless.
This draft seems like a perfect opportunity to address that, starting with that second pick. If Jacksonville opts for an offensive tackle with the No. 1 overall selection, then Hutchinson would be an ideal fit for the Lions, both in terms of his physical profile and his “football character,” a nebulous phrase Holmes tried to define Thursday in his pre-draft media session.
“Being a good teammate, being accountable,” Holmes said. “But then you talk about passion for football, perseverance, leadership, work ethic, preparation, all those things lead to what we call good football character.”
All those things are boxes that Michigan’s Heisman Trophy finalist checks — “Aidan Hutchinson, to me, is the run-the-card-up (pick), if he’s there,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said Thursday — which is why Jaguars GM Trent Baalke may be inclined to take him off the board before the Lions make their selection.
When asked about the Lions’ evaluations of the players at the top of this draft, Holmes insisted there’s a “cluster of players that we’re looking at that are very, very evenly rated and graded.” He also implied he’s not going to get too caught up in the debate over positional value at No. 2.
“I’ve been saying all along that we’re looking for a game-changer at that pick, and really any pick,” he said. “I said from Day 1: Any game-changer at any position, and there are multiple positions where we do see that potential game-changers could be there.”
The best bet
Maybe so, and in a draft that many scouts and most analysts agree is lacking can’t-miss prospects at the top, you can make a strong argument for bucking conventional thinking. In a conference call Thursday, Jeremiah even threw out the possibility of the Lions making a “home-run type pick” with LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., though ideally in a trade-down scenario not at No. 2
And I get it, this urge to take a swing after all the misses Lions fans have endured through the years. But all the same, money talks, and it’s no coincidence the eight highest-paid defensive players in the league are all pass rushers of one variety or another, from T.J. Watt to Aaron Donald. Last year’s postseason also was telling: The Rams won the title a year after trading for Matthew Stafford, but they won the Super Bowl mostly because they sacked Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow seven times in that game.
And the last time the Lions were even remotely a threat to win a playoff game, let alone make a postseason run, they had a defense that actually applied pressure rather than wilted under it.
So when Holmes says “it’s just what fits your team the best” while talking about the Lions’ choices with the No. 2 pick, the best bet still should be a player that can get to the quarterback.
Is that Thibodeaux, who explodes off the ball but may rub some NFL GMs and coaches the wrong way with his big personality? Is it Travon Walker, whose measurables are off the charts even if his production wasn’t despite playing for a stacked Georgia defense? The Lions have done their homework on both those players, to be sure.
Johnson’s actually the most intriguing of the pass-rushing prospects, in my mind. He said at the combine he was out to prove to NFL teams “that I’m as good as I think I am,” and I’m inclined to believe him. (The Lions may be, too, after coaching him at the Senior Bowl.)
He’s long and athletic, versatile and impactful. He left the SEC and then flourished in the ACC last fall, but watch the film of him beating the likes of North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu and Boston College’s Zion Johnson, arguably the best tackle and guard, respectively, in this draft class. Johnson defends the run well, can move inside in sub-packages and has plenty of room to grow as a pure edge rusher.
“As long as I’m outside that tackle,” Johnson says, “I think I can be a headache for offenses.”
Sounds like just what the doctor ordered for the Lions, doesn’t it?
john.niyo@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @JohnNiyo