We are less than one week from the start of the 2022 NFL draft Thursday, and one month removed from my mock draft 3.0. Here is my fresh best guess at the first 34 picks, where the Detroit Lions currently have three selections.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan
Rumors persist that Travon Walker will go No. 1, but I have a hard time seeing the Jaguars pass on Hutchinson, who has a higher floor and is better suited to play on the edge.
2. Detroit Lions
Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
I’m back to believing the Lions will take Thibodeaux at No. 2 despite conjecture Thibodeaux is not coach Dan Campbell’s kind of player. Thibodeaux’s personality has rubbed some people the wrong way during the pre-draft process, but he had a good interview with the Lions at the combine and Campbell has always embraced players’ personalities. This comes down to Thibodeaux being the best talent at a position of need in a premium spot on the board.
BIRKETT: Three scenarios for Lions’ early picks: Here’s how their draft could play out
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3. Houston Texans
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Neal gets the call over North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu here because of GM Nick Caserio’s ties to Nick Saban, via Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
4. New York Jets
Jermaine Johnson, edge, Florida State
The Jets must get a pass rusher for coach Robert Saleh somewhere early in this draft.
5. New York Giants
Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Gardner and Hutchinson are vying to become the highest-drafted Michigan natives since Eric Fisher went No. 1 overall in 2013.
6. Carolina Panthers
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State
I’ve slotted Malik Willis here in my previous mocks, but with no Day 2 picks and coach Matt Rhule on the hot seat, I’m no longer convinced the Panthers go that route.
[ Lions risk stagnating in rebuild without long-term answer at QB ]
7. New York Giants (from Chicago)
Travon Walker, DL, Georgia
Look for the Giants to deal out of one of their first-round picks to try and acquire extra draft capital in 2023.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Among the safeties currently on the Falcons roster: Teez Tabor and Dean Marlowe.
9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
The Seahawks don’t usually draft a cornerback this high, but Stingley is a special talent.
10. New York Jets (from Seattle)
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Williams might miss the first month or two of the season, but he’s the premier big-play receiver in the draft.
11. Washington Commanders
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Martin Mayhew took Matthew Stafford in his first draft as GM. Thirteen years later, he takes another quarterback in Round 1.
12. Minnesota Vikings
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
With Wilson and Justin Jefferson, the Vikings should be set at receiver for a long time.
13. Houston Texans (from Cleveland)
Drake London, WR, USC
Whether it’s for Davis Mills or a quarterback they draft in 2023, the Texans have a chance to stockpile young talent on offense.
14. Baltimore Ravens
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
McDuffie’s arm length is a concern, but his tape makes him the third best cornerback in this draft.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami)
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
One of the combine’s biggest stars should be a hit playing next to Fletcher Cox.
16. New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis via Philadelphia)
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
The Saints are legitimate trade-up candidates, but in this mock they stay put and still get their quarterback.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
This feels low for Cross, and quite fortunate for the Chargers. But I could not find a spot for him in the top half of Round 1.
18. Philadelphia Eagles: (from New Orleans)
Dax Hill, S, Michigan
Hill can play safety or nickel and would help a secondary that ranked 25th against the pass last season.
19. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia)
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
If they don’t trade up for a quarterback, the Saints seem like a good bet to take a tackle with one of their two first-round picks.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
With the top quarterbacks gone, Kevin Colbert’s final first-round pick as Steelers GM is a receiver.
21. New England Patriots
Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Lloyd’s versatility would be a fit for Belichick’s defense.
22. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas)
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
If you’re the Packers, don’t you try and trade this pick for Deebo Samuel?
[ Hog-hunting Arkansas WR Treylon Burks could fill big need on Lions offense ]
23. Arizona Cardinals
George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue
Karlaftis had more pressures than Thibodeaux and Walker last season.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Wyatt is a bit of a wildcard because of off-field issues, but those have rarely been an issue for the Cowboys in the past.
25. Buffalo Bills
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
The Bills have a Super Bowl-caliber roster and can go best player on their board regardless of position.
26. Tennessee Titans
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
The Titans don’t get mentioned enough as a possible landing spot for a quarterback.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
One of the leaders of Georgia’s national championship team, Cine would be a Day 1 starter on a Super Bowl contender.
28. Green Bay Packers
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
His measurables aren’t the prettiest, but Dean’s tape is tough to beat.
29. Kansas City Chiefs
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
The Chiefs could target a receiver after trading Tyreek Hill, but the smarter play is to upgrade a secondary that will be tested in the AFC West, and go pass catcher with one of their two second-round picks.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco via Miami)
Drake Jackson, edge, USC
Michigan’s David Ojabo could make sense here if the Chiefs want to roll the dice on a first-round talent.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
The Bengals overhauled their offensive line in free agency, but Green’s position versatility would be welcome insurance for the unit.
32. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams)
Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The Lions lack top-end defensive talent, even after spending the No. 2 pick on a pass rusher. Walker is a big-time hitter who would upgrade a linebacking corps that has a bunch of band-aid solutions in place.
[ How Lions might try to trade up for QB in Round 1 ]
33. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
After taking Hutchinson at one, the Jaguars start Day 2 with an offensive lineman.
34. Detroit Lions
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
You can make the case here for a safety (Jaquan Brisker?) or interior defensive lineman (Logan Hall?), but Watson’s size and deep-threat ability will be tough to pass on for a team that has long-term needs at the receiver position.
CARLOS MONARREZ: Is it time for Lions to take bold step in this NFL draft?
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.