Quarterback will always be king, but the NFL has a new No. 2.
ESPN analyst Todd McShay said the NFL underwent a major philosophical shift this offseason in how teams value the wide receiver position, and that change is here to stay as colleges continue to churn out big-time pass catchers.
“Anyone can just look at the prices that have gone out to the free agents and the receivers who have been traded, the league is telling you the second most valuable position is wide receiver,” McShay said. “It’s quarterback, then receiver. It always used to be left tackle, edge rusher and then maybe four or five down the line you get to wide receiver. That has changed. It’s never been more apparent than the playoffs this past year and the offseason that we are kind of wrapping up in terms of free agency and trade.”
This year’s Super Bowl representatives, the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals, had explosive offenses led by talented quarterbacks that featured two of the best receivers in football.
DRAFT STRATEGY: As WR money skyrockets, smart teams wait for draft
HOLMES FOCUS: What Detroit Lions GM Brad Holmes is looking for in his No. 2 pick
The Rams’ Cooper Kupp became the first player to win the receiving triple crown, leading the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns, since Steve Smith in 2005. He scored the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl and was the game’s MVP.
The Bengals went from worst to first in the AFC North thanks in part to first-round pick Ja’Marr Chase, who set a rookie record with 1,455 yards receiving. Chase was the first receiver to win Offensive Rookie of the Year since Odell Beckham Jr in 2014.
In the months since the Super Bowl, the receiver market has exploded as contending teams have spared no expense to acquire their own downfield threats.
The Las Vegas Raiders traded first- and second-round picks to the Green Bay Packers for Davante Adams, then signed Adams to a five-year, $141 million contract. The Miami Dolphins traded five draft picks to the Kansas City Chiefs for Tyreek Hill, who they inked to a four-year, $120 million deal. The Buffalo Bills kept Stefon Diggs with a four-year, $96 million extension.
And receivers like Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf remain in limbo amid trade rumors while awaiting new deals.
“When you break it down into financial terms, especially when you look at the current scope of where the receiver contracts are going, it’s something that you’ve got to think about,” Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes said at his pre-draft news conference this week. “Do you want to pay that money? It’s a lot of different variables that go into that with just paying (an unrestricted free agent) or trading for a guy and signing him to a big deal, versus just trying to get one in the draft. That’s the unpredictability part of it. You just don’t know if you’ll be able to get that guy, get the guy that you want in the draft. You’ve got to weigh both, but I think there is some merit to (McShay’s comments).”
The Chiefs chose to trade Hill, 28, rather than sign him to a big-money third contract, and teams may consider the ripple effect from that deal as they chart their own path at receiver going forward.
Kansas City signed Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to more nominal free agent deals, and the Chiefs have two late first-round picks in this year’s draft (plus four more picks in the second and third rounds) to fill their remaining need at the position.
Barring a trade up, K.C. almost certainly will miss out on this year’s top receivers. Alabama’s Jameson Williams, Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and USC’s Drake London are likely top-20 picks.
But McShay said as many as 20 receivers could go in the draft’s first two days and up to seven could go in Round 1.
“This class is loaded,” he said.
This is at least the third straight year analysts have pegged receiver as one of the deepest positions in the draft.
Samuel, Brown and Metcalf were second-round picks in a 2019 draft that was considered good at receiver but lacking top-end talent. In 2020, six receivers went in the draft’s first 25 picks and 16 went in the first three rounds. And last year, Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith were top-10 picks.
LIONS NFL DRAFT COVERAGE: Three scenarios for Detroit Lions’ early picks: How NFL draft could play out
NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said depth at the receiver position has pushed some prospects down draft boards in the past. But the way the offseason has gone, he, too, can feel momentum shifting at the position.
“Look, the evidence is out there for all the hits in the second and third round and even beyond,” Jeremiah said. “But I think seeing the cost of these wide outs and what it’s going to take to procure one of them on the open market, and that number gets north of $20 million. You look at somebody like Justin Jefferson who obviously is a great example, where he was picked in the (second half of the first round in the 2020) draft, his average per year is like $3 million a year. So you get cost control on a player like that at that price for four years plus a fifth-year option versus having to go the veteran route and having to pay that huge, huge number to get a premium guy. If not pay him, then you’ve got to trade a bunch of assets to go get him.
“To me I think that’s why this year we see wide outs get pushed up a little bit more maybe than in years past. I think we’ll see six of them go in the first round.”
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.