Maybe the Jacksonville Jaguars overthink it and pass on Aidan Hutchinson on Thursday in the first round in the NFL draft. And the former Michigan football star is waiting there when the Detroit Lions get on the clock at No. 2.
Maybe general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell snatch him up and turn their attention to their other first-round pick and never look back.
Hutchinson is a solid choice. A safe choice. And it’s easy to imagine his demeanor fitting in nicely with what Holmes and Campbell are building.
But if Hutchinson isn’t there?
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In a year where the draft is thin on high-end difference makers in the most conventional spots, do the Lions take a chance?
Or do they grab a defensive end anyway? Like Kayvon Thibodeaux or Travon Walker or Jermaine Johnson?
Again, that’s probably the safest bet. Red meat to a chunk of the fan base. The Lions need pass rushers. Any of those three would be solid.
Yet is solid enough with the No. 2 pick?
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Because if it’s not, the Lions should consider Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, who grades out as a top-four pick on almost every speculating service you can find.
I know, I know. He’s a cornerback. And Jeff Okudah. And you’ve got PTSD. And there are reasons cornerbacks don’t usually get drafted in the top 5 … or even top 3 — and never top 2.
Maybe those reasons are becoming outdated. Maybe it’s time to start thinking about the shifting geometry of a football field. You know, where receivers dominate it?
It’s true that the best way to slow a great receiver is to pressure the quarterback. That’s fine if you have Aaron Donald. Or Joey Bosa. Or Myles Garrett. Or prime J.J. Watt.
But even pass rushers at that level record, at best, a sack a game. True, quarterback pressures wreck plays almost as completely, and incomplete passes are gold.
And if the Lions think they’ve got a shot at a player as good as any listed above? Then, sure, grab a pass rusher at No. 2 and don’t look back.
Pocket pressure is still the best way to blow up an offense and ruin a great quarterback’s day. Unless that quarterback is adept at eluding pressure and stepping outside the pocket and making plays on the run, as so many of the game’s best young quarterbacks are.
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So, I say again: Then what?
Yeah, a cornerback, like Gardner, or perhaps Derek Stingley Jr., who some analysts and former general manager and scout types argue is more gifted at his position than any other player is in this draft.
Do you take a chance? Despite his injury history at LSU?
No? Understandable.
But why not Gardner?
All he did was take out Jameson Williams, Alabama’s best receiver, in the College Football Playoff a few months ago. Williams, it should be noted, will almost certainly get drafted in the first round Thursday, even coming off an ACL tear.
That’s how good Williams is. That’s how good Gardner is.
Yeah, Gardner’s team lost. Yet are you really going to put the overall talent differential between Cincinnati and Alabama on him? I’d argue that Gardner’s presence allowed the Bearcats to hang around for a while.
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And while I’m not arguing the Lions should take Gardner at No. 2 no matter what, I am arguing that if they grade him out as the best overall prospect when they’re on the board, nothing should keep them from taking him.
Not convention. Not fan pressure. Not history.
So what if cornerbacks aren’t often taken in the top five? You know what other position rarely gets taken in the top five?
Running back, and that position used to dominate the top of the draft, often over quarterbacks. But the game changed. More precisely, players changed.
Running backs are no longer the fastest players in the middle of the field. Safeties can run with them. Linebackers can, too. The field has shrunk. The geometric and physical advantages running backs once enjoyed are gone.
General managers and coaches adjusted, first on the field, then in the draft and what was once perceived as conventional wisdom is no longer wise at all.
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Outside of quarterbacks, it’s become a receiver’s league — big, fast, vertical receivers who double as technicians on the route tree. Which means that at some point it’s got to become a cornerback’s league, too.
So, if not at No. 2? Then how about No. 32? Or No. 34?
Pro Football Focus uses WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, to assign value to every player in the NFL and to every position. The site argues, through its formula, that outside of quarterback, the most valuable spots on the field are furthest from the football.
And while we don’t have to have math to tell us what we’re seeing on Sundays in the fall these days, it’s nice to know that math backs this up: receivers and cornerbacks matter. A lot.
If the Lions choose to go in that direction, they’ll have analytics behind them. They’ll also have talent. Because two of the best prospects in the draft are cornerbacks.
Contact Shawn Windsor: 313-222-6487 or swindsor@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @shawnwindsor.