After exactly 4.2 million mock NFL drafts (or thereabouts).
After months of analysis and hand wringing and debate.
After the underwear Olympics — won by Georgia’s Travon Walker.
After a rotating list of characters to their turn as the projected No.1 pick: It’s clearly going to be Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux.
No, wait, it’s clearly going to be Michigan football’s Aidan Hutchinson. No, wait, it’s going to be an offensive lineman. No, change that, it’s going to be Walker.
What do we know? Absolutely nothing.
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That is why this is going to be the best NFL draft ever, at least as pure entertainment. If you love drama and surprise mixed with a little football, this draft is going to be fantastic.
But the truth is, this draft already sucks for the Detroit Lions.
Here they have the No. 2 pick in the draft. They are building something from the ground up — yeah, I know, a perpetual state of being for the last half-century. They are in a perfect position to get their quarterback for the next decade or so.
But it’s a year too early. The stud quarterbacks are coming next year.
Sigh.
Figures, right?
So what are the Lions going to do? General manager Brad Holmes revealed his blueprint last year. He didn’t take a risk and go with the best defensive player in the draft: Micah Parsons.
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Holmes didn’t reach for a skilled position player, mainly, because the best two wide receivers were already gone.
He didn’t go for a quarterback — even though Mac Jones was sitting there, waiting to be plucked by the New England Patriots. And he didn’t even go with Justin Fields, even though plenty of fans wanted him.
Nope. He took offensive lineman Penei Sewell, who in many ways was the safest pick possible at that time because the Lions are building from the inside out.
And I believe that’s what he will do this year.
After all the smoke settles, we will be exactly in the same place where this all started months ago. I believe the Lions are going to pick between Thibodeaux and Hutchinson.
[ We looked at 50 NFL mock drafts for the Lions. Here’s what we found ]
If Hutchinson goes No.1, I expect the Lions will take Thibodeaux with no reservations.
If Walker goes first, well then, that’s where this will get interesting.
Just like Sewell, Hutchinson is the safest pick for the Lions. You plug Hutchinson in and you will get a good 10 or 12 years out of him. He will give the Lions leadership and unmatched effort. He will give them his heart and soul. There’s no question that he produced in college. And he actually had an impressive combine. All great things. He’s going to have a fine NFL career. Put it in stone.
It’s understandable why the Lions would take Hutchinson. He is the epitome of what the Lions are trying to build under Dan Campbell. Some have compared him to former Vikings and Chiefs star Jared Allen, who had a fine career — five Pro Bowls and 136 sacks.
But many have questioned Hutchinson’s ceiling.
Three years from now, will we say that Hutchinson was the best defensive player in this draft? I doubt it.
But then, wow, look at Thibodeaux. He is gifted and explosive and a playmaker — everything the Lions’ defense needs desperately. His production slipped in 2021. Then again, he had a bad ankle, and a bad ankle is the worst thing possible for an explosive athlete.
Some question desire. Will he go all-out like Hutchinson? Does he love football? It’s not clear. But the Lions have spent all kinds of time with Thibodeaux and they should know by now.
So we wait to find out the answer.
In the end, either way they go, the Lions are going to end up with a fantastic player with this pick. They might be tempted with wide receiver Jameson Williams, but you can find talented wide receivers with later picks. Holmes has shown he can do it, too; Amon-Ra St. Brown was a steal last year.
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They might be tempted to go with the safety, but I highly doubt it. They are building from the inside out.
The best defensive player in this draft might turn out to be one of the cornerbacks — Ahmad Gardner or Derek Stingley Jr. Or it might be the freak, Jordan Davis, or even Jermaine Johnson II, a gifted defensive end.
No pressure, Holmes, but you better figure out which one it is.
Because right now, all the pressure is on him. Holmes has a chance to make a great pick — one that changes this franchise for years. He needs to find the best defensive player in this draft. Or at least, the best one at No. 2.
This pick is going to come down to risk versus reward.
If last year is any indication, Holmes is going to play it safe. I think he’ll take Hutchinson.
What would I do?
If he passes the football character test, I’d go with Thibodeaux. The upside is just too enticing.
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Contact Jeff Seidel: jseidel@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @seideljeff.