Allen Park — Finally months of speculation can come to a merciful end.
The NFL will conduct the first round of its annual draft Thursday night and we’ve got one final projection on how it could all shake out.
Obviously, our focus is on the Detroit Lions, who enter the night with the Nos. 2 and No. 32 selections. Unlike many years, including last, it’s been trickier to discern what the team might do with its first choice. But some late reports out of Jacksonville that the Jaguars have moved off Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson in favor of another edge rusher or one of the offensive tackles would seemingly remove the mystery from Detroit’s pick.
At the back half of the first round, as well as early in the second, where the Lions are scheduled to be back on the clock at No. 34, the team could go any number of directions directions. The was the roster is constructed during these early stages of an ongoing rebuild, only a small group of players under contract beyond the 2023 season, giving the front office flexibility to pursue talent over position.
Without any further hesitation, let’s see where our thrown darts landed on our third and final mock draft of the 2022 offseason.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Travon Walker, edge, Georgia
The idea the Jaguars will be selecting Walker has been growing for the past couple of weeks, to the point where it’s become the betting favorite in a handful of places. And while it feels like a reach for a prospect who failed to stuff the stat sheet his three seasons at Georgia, there’s enough in general manager Trent Baalke’s history to suggest there’s fire behind the billowing smoke.
2. Detroit Lions — Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan
After weeks of looking like he’d be the No. 1 choice, Hutchinson conveniently falls into Detroit’s lap. And while he might not have the projected ceiling of some of the other top edge rushers who have come out in recent years, there’s comfort knowing the floor is high.
Hutchinson checks all the boxes for Detroit, both from a production and athleticism standpoint, as well as his unimpeachable football character. The latter carries significant weight with general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell.
More: Aidan Hutchinson’s draft journey a ‘surreal’ experience for football father
3. Houston Texans — Ikem Ekwonu, OL, North Carolina State
Given how far away the Texans are from contending, they’re better off taking talent with the highest ceiling at No. 3. All three of the top tackle prospects have the potential to be good, long-time starters in this league, but Ekwonu’s nasty, mauling play style will put him on another level if he is able to iron out the wrinkles in pass protection. While it’s maybe not ideal this early in the draft, there’s also the safety net of moving him to guard if he doesn’t reach his potential at tackle.
4. New York Jets — Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
While protecting last year’s No. 1 pick, quarterback Zach Wilson, is a top priority, the Jets did enough in free agency with the additions of Laken Tomlinson and Morgan Moses to not have to force it at the top of this draft. Gardner, a Detroit King product who epitomized being a shutdown corner for the Bearcats, is known for his man coverage skills, but he has the physicality and footwork to thrive in New York’s Cover-3 press scheme.
5. New York Giants — Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Andrew Thomas, the team’s first-round pick in 2020, made major improvements in his second season, solidifying the blindside for the Giants. But right tackle remains an issue. The massive, 6-foot-7, 337-pound Neal has starting experience at right tackle (as well as guard) and should give the franchise reliable bookends for years to come.
More: NFL Draft 2022: Your guide to Detroit Lions draft coverage
6. Carolina Panthers — Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Sure, the Panthers could take a quarterback here, but it feels like Matt Rhule’s seat is hot enough that he can’t afford to pass on instant impact. That might sound familiar to Lions fans who saw the team take Jeff Okudah ahead of Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert in 2020. The Jets passing on an offensive tackle makes the decision even easier for Carolina, who can address a big need with Cross, who is an advanced pass protector due to his smooth footwork.
7. New York Giants — Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
There’s a positional value argument to be made here, no doubt. The Giants also could use an edge rusher or cornerback, with premium talent available at both spots. That said, Hamilton has superstar potential and New York currently has just two safeties listed on the depth chart. The Notre Dame product is a versatile playmaker with unreal size, giving coordinator Wink Martindale a player to build around.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Drake London, WR, USC
After parting ways with Julio Jones last offseason, and Calvin Ridley’s future with the franchise uncertain after he was suspended indefinitely for betting on games, the Falcons badly need an injection of talent to their corps. You’ll find plenty of varying opinions on the best receiver in this class, but London is in the mix. He possesses outstanding size to pair with impressive ball skills and collegiate production.
9. Seattle Seahawks — Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Quarterback is certainly in play at this spot, but Stingley is a blue-chip talent with sweet feet and impressive ball production, even if most of it came during his freshman season in 2019. Obviously teams have far more detailed medical reports than what’s publicly available, but Stingley’s Pro Day performance suggests the foot injury that sidelined him much of last season is fully healed.
10. New York Jets — Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Orgon
This is some sweet value for the Jets, who further bolster their defensive haul with a player long believed to be in serious contention to be the No. 1 overall pick. Thibodeaux has plenty of room to develop his pass-rush move set, but he has elite burst of the line and has shown he can disrupt the pocket from both the edge and rushing inside.
11. Washington Commanders — Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
London’s size probably would have been a better complement opposite Terry McLaurin, but pairing former Buckeyes together isn’t a bad consolation. Wilson has the ability to line up outside or in the slot, giving new quarterback Carson Wentz the necessary arsenal to potentially have success.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (trade with Minnesota Vikings) — Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
It’s been eight years since the first quarterback came off the board outside the top three choices, but there’s understandable uncertainty with this class of prospects. Willis is raw, but also brings undeniable potential with his elusiveness as a runner and a cannon for an arm. While we can argue the risk/reward is a bit rich inside the top 10, the Steelers need a long-term solution following Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement. At the cost of future first-rounder to move up eight spots, it’s a good fit.
13. Houston Texans — Jermaine Johnson, edge, Florida State
Most analysts rank Johnson as the fourth edge rusher in this class, but I’m not sure anyone should be surprised if he ends up being the most productive from that top group. A good run defender, he exploded for 12 sacks in his lone season with the Seminoles. From there, he went on to dominate on the practice field at the Senior Bowl before posting a better-than-expected 40 time at the scouting combine. There’s a lot to like.
14. Baltimore Ravens — Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Assuming new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald ports over more of the Cover-2 looks he liked running at Michigan to Baltimore, this choice makes even more sense. The instinctual, technically proficient McDuffie can help turn around the team’s recent struggles defending the perimeter.
15. Philadelphia Eagles — Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Davis was firmly viewed as a first-round pick even before he delivered one of the most jaw-dropping combine performances of all time. Still, there’s a cap on how much he was going to climb draft boards because of concerns about his endurance and limited pass-rush production while at Georgia. If he’s ever able to fully tap into that athletic potential, he’ll look like a value in hindsight.
16. New Orleans Saints — Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
After missing most of the past two seasons, the Saints are hoping Michael Thomas gets back to being one of the league’s most productive possession receivers, but Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith are still underwhelming complements. Williams, who is progressing nicely in his rehab from a torn ACL, would bring lethal playmaking speed to the table, boosting a passing attack that finished last in the NFL in 2021.
17. Los Angeles Chargers — Travis Jones, DT, UConn
If we’re going to rave about Jordan Davis’ combine, we can’t ignore what Jones accomplished at 6-foot-4, 325 pounds with freakishly good speed, agility and explosion numbers. That only rubber-stamped his dominance at the point of attack during his college career, providing the Chargers an anchor in the middle they desperately need. This isn’t the reach you might think.
18. Philadelphia Eagles — George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue
It feels like Karlaftis was unfairly maligned early in the draft process as more of a high-effort prospect than an elite athlete, but he quieted some of those concerns with strong measurables at the combine and his pro day. The motor shows up on film, as does his ability to disrupt with power. With the development of a better pass-rush repertoire, he has the makings on an above-average starter who could easily play a decade.
19. New Orleans Saints — Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Thought long and hard about conveniently slotting Kenny Pickett to the Saints, but the team recently committed to Jameis Winston for another two years and he played well enough in seven starts last season that it’s worth seeing how it plays out with some better weapons. Part of that equation is maintaining his protection following the departure of Terron Armstead in free agency. Backup James Hurst has played well in stretches, but Penning has lofty upside with a good combination of athletic traits and aggressive play style.
20. Minnesota Vikings (trade with the Steelers) — Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
The Vikings need a cornerback, but Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr. is the next-best available and feels like a slight reach even after moving back. With a new front office and coaching staff, it’s always a conservative play to address the trenches. The highly athletic Wyatt has an explosive first step, but also experience taking on multiple blockers after starring in Georgia’s loaded defense. He could offer some inside-outside flexibility up front as the Vikings shift to a 3-4 look.
More: Justin Rogers’ 2022 NFL mock draft 1.0
More: Justin Rogers’ 2022 NFL mock draft 2.0, post-free agency edition
21. New England Patriots — Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
The heart of Bill Belichick’s defensive units always have been in the second level, but the current group doesn’t match up with the star power of the past. Additionally, Dont’a Hightower remains a free agent after arguably his worst professional season. Lloyd quickly restocks the cupboards with a do-everything talent who can support the run, cover and get after the QB as a blitzer or lining up on the edge.
22. Green Bay Packers — Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Landing Olave almost feels too perfect for the Packers. After acquiescing to Davante Adams’ trade request this offseason, the Ohio State standout would give Aaron Rodgers another option capable of gaining quick separation with smooth releases and advanced route running.
23. Indianapolis Colts (trade with Cardinals) — Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
Much like we had the Steelers do earlier in this projection, we can see the Colts jumping back into the first round by using pick No. 42 and a future first-round choice to solve their QB conundrum. Matt Ryan, acquired in a trade this offseason, is a fine stopgap, much like Philip Rivers before him, but it’s time to lock in a long-term solution.
24. Dallas Cowboys — Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College
A big part of the Cowboys’ identity is having a dominant offensive line. Connor Williams was arguably the weak link with last year’s group and he’s gone after signing with Miami. Connor McGovern, a late third-round pick in 2019, is the next man up and certainly merits considering an upgrade. The polished and powerful Johnson would certainly check that box.
25. Buffalo Bills — Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
A relatively complete roster that should be in Super Bowl contention, it’s easy to imagine the Bills seeking another piece to an already-lethal offense, including taking the first running back of the draft. But a cornerback to play opposite Tre’Davious White is a legitimate need. Booth is schematically versatile, but doesn’t have a ton of playing experience, so early-career growing pains wouldn’t be unexpected.
26. Tennessee Titans — Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
After losing Corey Davis in free agency last year, the Titans tried for a quick fix by trading for future Hall of Famer Julio Jones. Unfortunately, it ended up being a broken-down version of the two-time first-team All-Pro and the two sides parted ways this offseason. Still needing a complement to A.J. Brown, they went back to the trade well, acquiring Robert Woods from the Rams. Adding the big-bodied, playmaking slot receiver out of Arkansas could take the offense to another new level.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
After losing Ali Marpet to retirement and Alex Cappa in free agency, Tampa Bay made a smart move to trade for Shaq Mason. But the other starting guard spot is projected to be filled by Aaron Stinnie, who has fewer than 400 pro snaps under his belt. Green is a physical run blocker with plenty of high-level college experience who should have no problem claiming that job.
28. Green Bay Packers — Boye Mafe, edge, Minnesota
The Packers have a couple of solid starters on the edge, but lack impactful depth at the position. Having Rashan Gary and Preston Smith to shoulder the workload will allow Green Bay to ease the raw, but immensely talented Mafe into the playing-time rotation. If his senior season at Minnesota is indicative, the development could be rapid.
29. Kansas City Chiefs — Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Even after trading Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have quality pass-catching depth after adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency. Still, there’s room for a long-term play at the position and Watson’s ceiling is tantalizing. He has a rare combination of speed and size and could develop into a highly productive weapon paired with star quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
30. Kansas City Chiefs — Arnold Ebiketie, edge, Penn State
Beyond Frank Clark, the Chiefs don’t have much edge-rushing production on the roster. Melvin Ingram, a midseason addition via a trade with the Steelers, was second in quarterback pressures and he’s a free agent. Ebiketie isn’t going to give you much against the run out of the box, but he’s a high-effort pass rusher with long levers and elite athletic traits. That skill set translated to more than 50 quarterback pressures at Penn State last season.
31. Atlanta Falcons (trade with Cincinnati Bengals) — Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
With the idea that the Lions could be in the market for a quarterback, and the appeal of having a fifth-year option on the contract, the Falcons pay the modest cost of this year’s second-round pick (No. 43), as well as next year’s to jump back into the end of the first to snag Ridder. After trading Matt Ryan this offseason, Atlanta picked up Marcus Mariota as a stopgap. With a year to work on bettering his accuracy, Ridder, who steadily improved while at Cincinnati, could develop into a reliable, dual-threat starter.
32. Detroit Lions — Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
The Lions are in clear need of a long-term safety pairing with Tracy Walker and Cine could plug that hole. Smart, scheme versatile, with plenty of experience playing deep, Cine is an excellent tackler who plays aggressively downhill to support the run. In terms of coverage range, he rubber-stamped his abilities by posting a sub 4.4-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
Bonus: 34. Detroit Lions — Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
Looking at the board of remaining players, it’s somewhat of a surprise to see Dean still available, but the Butkus Award winner is hurt by two things. First, he’s notably undersized for the position, at 5-foot-11, 229 pounds. On top of that, an injury prevented him from participating in the pre-draft process, leaving lingering questions about his timed speed and athleticism. To be fair, even without a clocked 40, Dean’s film-based resume is as strong as they come. He has high-end instincts and reaction time, firing into the backfield as a blitzer and covering the required ground in coverage. And while we can’t dismiss fast-rising teammate Quay Walker at this spot, because of the more prototypical build and elite athletic gifts, Dean’s film and production are the difference.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers