The first ax of the NFL season swung on Monday, claiming Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start in his third season.
Some Detroit Lions fans frustrated with the Dan Campbell’s 1-4 start, and furious after Sunday’s 29-0 “rock bottom” loss in New England, surely hoped that ax would keep chopping its way north until it found landed in Allen Park.
That’s the way it is in the temperamental NFL, where coaches’ seats get hot faster than Draymond Green can throw a sucker punch. One minute you’re the up-down king on “Hard Knocks,” the next you’re one of the favorites to get guillotined.
After Rhule’s firing, Campbell’s odds rose to the fourth-highest to be the next coach fired among most betting websites. Only Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury, Denver’s Nathaniel Hackett and Washington’s Ron Rivera were ahead of him.
Imagine that. When the season began, Campbell was considered one of the NFL’s safest coaches and now he has a 10% chance of being the next guy fired, according to one site.
No, this isn’t a gambling column. I’m not opening a sportsbook or starting a betting app, so put away your Bitcoin.
I’m writing this to demonstrate the fickle nature of the business. But I’m also reminding Lions fans that this is exactly what they wanted and what they bargained for when they called for a regime change that included a culture change, a retooled roster to fit a different coaching philosophy and an organizational rebuild that included the trade of a franchise quarterback.
Did you really think it was going to happen in two seasons? In less time than even that? Did you really expect to see results, or even significant progress, after 22 games?
If you did, you’re name just might be Dan Campbell, because the Lions coach admitted Monday, “I did not anticipate us being 1-4 going into the bye.”
Clearly, Campbell did not read my prescient preseason game-by-game breakdown in which I correctly predicted the outcome of the first five games. (Hmm, maybe I should launch a betting app.)
Of course, I doubt any coach believes, or would admit to believing, his team would start 1-4. For the record, I predicted the Lions would finish 6-11, with their next win coming against Miami. But if Tua Tagovailoa returns from concussion protocol, I wouldn’t bet on the Lions. (Seriously, I promise this is not a gambling column.)
But I’ve also written repeatedly that this season shouldn’t be measured only by wins and losses. It’s about measuring improvement. That sometimes requires nuance, which is a hard sell for a generation of tired and frustrated Lions fans who buried several generations of tired and frustrated Lions fans.
So if you will indulge my attempt at nuance, here are two facts I hope all Lions fans can agree on. One is that the Lions’ offense has been an astounding success under first-time coordinator Ben Johnson. Even after Sunday’s shutout, the offense still ranked third in yards and points.
I’m sure many people thought, or hoped, the Lions’ offense would be much better this season, based on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s finish last season and assuming better health for D’Andre Swift. But no reasonable person whose check isn’t signed by Sheila Ford Hamp truly believed the Lions would have the NFL’s top offense after four weeks – especially with St. Brown and Swift ailing.
Merely calling the improvement of the offense progress doesn’t do Johnson and Campbell’s efforts justice, especially during a season when offense across the league is among the lowest it has been in years.
Then there’s the defense. Yes, losing, 29-0, to a third-string quarterback looks bad. But if you watched the game closely against the Patriots, you know the Lions’ defense looked better than it did when it surrendered 41 points to Seattle’s offense the previous week. Even with a decimated secondary, the Lions held the Patriots’ offense, playing at home, to four field goals for almost three full quarters. That’s progress.
In fact, Campbell led off his Monday news conference justifiably praising the defense.
“So watching the tape, defense played much better,” he said. “I feel like we stopped the bleeding from what we’ve been going through the last couple of weeks.”
What’s even more important than what Campbell said is what his players said and felt in the Foxborough locker room. They were clearly disappointed, but there wasn’t a shred of panic, disillusionment or finger-pointing that goes along with a fractured locker room.
I think the players know they aren’t that far away from winning games. If the offense had played to just half of its potential, the Lions could have beaten the Patriots.
“Man, listen, we’re five games in,” tight end T.J. Hockenson said. “We got 12 left? How many? That’s a whole college season.
“So we got a lot of time. We got a lot of time to move this thing to the point where we need to, but we’ve got to get the first one. That’s just the message to everybody in here is, ‘Hey, let’s get the first one and we’ll see where it goes from there.’
Unfortunately, Teej, I don’t see “the first one” on the horizon. I can easily see the Lions coming back from the bye and losing their next six. Yes, six: at Dallas, home to Miami (depending on Tua’s health), home to Green Bay, at Chicago, at the Giants and against the Bills.
That means they could be 1-10 before they have a chance to beat Jacksonville at home. Even if they beat the Dolphins, they would be 2-9.
During training camp, I had a conversation with a smart person in the Lions organization. I gave him my prediction of six wins. “Just think about all the things that have to go wrong to win six games,” he said. In most cases, he would be right. But in reality with this team, the only thing that’s really gone wrong has been a regression of the defense and big questions about coordinator Aaron Glenn’s future.
The real question for anyone who wants Campbell fired if the Lions go on the slide I’m predicting is whether they really want what they’re asking for? Because if you do want Campbell fired, you’re looking at the start of yet another rebuild, another roster retooling, another philosophy.
If that’s the case, general manager Brad Holmes might be the one making the hire, which means you’d better hope he picks coaches the way he picks fourth-round receivers and not second-round defensive linemen.
Even if the Lions promote Johnson and he keeps the offense intact and hires his own defensive coordinator, he has very little executive experience and will need time to learn how to lead an entire team.
And if you weren’t willing to give Campbell two full seasons, how long would you give the coach who replaces him?