Yes, this feels familiar.
Because we have already lived it.
Once with the Detroit Tigers.
A season of promise — poof — up in smoke after only a quarter of the season.
All the excitement — oh, no, he’s hurt, too? — slipping away. When you look at these two organizations, it’s like a nightmare on an endless loop. Instead of wins and progress, we are left with frustration and disappointment. Instead of hope and relevance, we are left with backups and makeshift lineups.
When you dig into the Tigers and Lions’ seasons, it’s almost crazy how similar they have started.
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Rising expectations replaced with disappointment
Entering 2022, there was rising expectations for both teams.
Nobody was talking about winning the World Series or the Super Bowl. But there was hope that both teams were headed in the right direction.
“We feel we’re very close to being a playoff contending team,” Al Avila, Tigers general manager at the time, said in September 2021. “We’re not too far away.”
We know how that turned out.
But back in the spring, I thought the Tigers had the right mix of veterans and youth. I thought they had picked up the right free agents. On paper, they had improved at catcher, shortstop and right field, filling holes. And the rebuild looked like it was on the right track.
Clearly, I was wrong.
The Tigers had a crazy rash of injuries, including to Austin Meadows, who lost games due to vertigo, COVID, tendinitis and mental health issues. Starting pitchers went down with far more typical injuries — elbows and shoulders — and the bats went ice cold. Still, somehow, the Tigers kept finding pitchers to keep them in games. In fact, the pitchers were outstanding. But they just couldn’t put the entire team together.
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Which sounds exactly what the Lions have gone through.
The excitement was off the charts thanks to “Hard Knocks.” Suddenly, the Lions were fun and exciting — Dan Campbell became a quote machine — and people started to pay attention. More than one national pundit jumped on the Lions train, listing them among potential dark horse playoff contending teams.
Then, just like the Tigers, the injuries hit.
It was like this crazy wave of misfortune washed over the wide receivers, spreading across the offensive line and picked off some of the team’s biggest playmakers:
DeAndre Swift — shoulder and ankle.
Amon Ra-St. Brown — ankle.
DJ Chark — ankle.
The list is too long to recount here.
The defense was not spared, either. In Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots alone, darn near every member of the secondary went down at one point.
Despite the injuries, the Lions offense continued to produce (until the fiasco in New England). They kept putting up points, becoming the highest scoring team in the NFL through the first four games. It was remarkable, doing it with a makeshift offensive line and makeshift receiver unit.
Just like how the Tigers kept getting solid pitching out of players you would never expect. But the Tigers couldn’t do anything with it because they couldn’t hit.
The Lions were still losing despite their high-scoring offense because they couldn’t stop anybody.
Can somebody, please, put together a complete freakin’ team?
Abandon all hope:Unacceptable: Detroit Lions outplayed, outcoached in 29-0 loss to Patriots
Rookies living the same life
Even the situation with the youngsters feels similar.
Riley Greene, the Tigers outfielder who has star written all over him, missed the start of his rookie season after fracturing his foot late in spring training.
Just like how Jameson Williams, a rookie wide receiver who I think is going to be star, has missed the start of the Lions season recovering from a knee injury suffered in his final college game.
But here’s some good news:
When Greene finally cracked the lineup, he did enough good things — and made enough jaw-dropping catches — to know he’ll be a fixture for years to come.
And I predict we are going to say the same thing about Williams.
Now, consider the curious cases of Spencer Torkelson and Aidan Hutchinson, the Nos. 1 and 2 overall picks in their respective drafts.
Both were in their rookie season in 2022. Both carry the burden of expectation. And neither has produced consistently.
And that’s being kind.
Sure, we have seen flashes. Torkelson ended the year on a high note, going 5-for-9 in a doubleheader against Seattle, driving in three runs. Hutchinson had three sacks against Washington in Week 2.
But I wish Hutchinson would stop flying by quarterbacks.
Just like I wish Torkelson would crush a gutted fastball every once in a while.
More:Here’s how the Detroit Lions can get Aidan Hutchinson to play faster
Nobody said there’d be math
I’m not comparing the state of the rebuilds. Just the start of the seasons.
We are in Year 2 of the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell regime, although NFL teams can be flipped far faster than an MLB club.
But seeing the similar starts, a question came to mind: Which team had the worst start to the season?
For that, we need to turn to a couple of deep-thinking philosophers.
“You are what your record says you are,” Bill Parcells said.
So I’m not going to get into blown games, bad coaching decisions and “potential” Lions wins.
The Lions have played five games or 29.4% of their season, equivalent to 47 games of the Tigers’ season.
And that’s roughly the sweet spot, according to another philosopher. “Youcan’t tell anything about a baseball team until 40 games have been played,” Sparky Anderson said.
Perfect. We are right there, so let’s apply it to the Lions as well.
The Lions are 1-4, a .200 winning percentage.
The Tigers at the same point in their season — 29.4% of their games — were 17-29 with a .369 winning percentage.
By that measure, the Lions are off to a worse start than the Tigers.
The big picture lesson
1. Rebuilds never progress in a linear fashion.
2. Injuries can quickly derail a season.
3. OK, can I repeat how sick I am of injuries and injury reports and season-ending surgeries?
4. Even if you load up in one area, you have a far better chance of winning with a complete team.
5. And after what we saw from the Tigers in 2022, we know it’s foolish to think a player will automatically repeat his previous performance.
That’s the scary thing, as we look ahead in this Lions season. There’s no guarantee the offense will continue to click as it did in the first four games.
See the Patriots game.
So even when the Lions get some players back, there’s no guarantee that anyone, including Jared Goff, will continue at a high pace.
The Tigers were able to salvage something of 2022 by bringing up some youngsters and giving them valuable experience. And all the injuries showed them they have more pitching depth than they even realized.
That’s going to help them in the long run.
But the Lions are in a different spot. Rosters flip over so fast, it doesn’t work like that.
Before the season, I predicted the Lions would win seven games — eight if they are lucky. They are on pace to win 3.4.
Even though they are still rebuilding, they are underperforming.
The Tigers avoided 100 losses by wining 11 of 13 late in the season, finishing 66-96.
I wouldn’t be stunned if the Lions win some meaningless games later this season. Just enough to make you believe again. Just enough to make you think they have turned a corner. Just enough to make you get excited about the 2023 draft and next year.
Because that’s what they do.
Even if this start has been surprisingly bad, that’s an ending we are familiar with.
Contact Jeff Seidel: jseidel@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @seideljeff. To read his recent columns, go to www.freep.com/sports/jeff-seidel