The Detroit Lions are a long way from matching the Jacksonville Jaguars’ modern record for what can only be described as NFL draft futility.
The Jaguars picked in the top 10 in 10 consecutive drafts from 2008-17 and selected mostly busts with those picks. (Justin Blackmon, anyone?)
The Lions (1-4) are trending toward a fifth straight spring with a top-10 pick, and I made the comment during an appearance on the Woodward Sports Network last week that, as bad as the defense is right now and as much as everyone thinks the Lions should load up on that side of the ball next offseason, it would border on organizational malfeasance to leave that stretch without having at least taken a swing at landing a franchise QB.
Drafting a quarterback in the top 10 is no guarantee of success, and save your emails about how the best signal-caller in NFL history fell to the sixth round. Quarterback is the most important position in football, and the best chance to land a really, really good one is to take one high in the draft.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert all were top-10 picks who now are stars at the position. In fact, of the six players with the best odds to win NFL MVP this season, just one — Jalen Hurts — is a quarterback who was not drafted in the first round.
I’d never advocate for drafting the position just because. The right prospect has to be there. But @LionPride8123 and @RoughN67 asked about the merits of drafting a quarterback in 2023 and I remain all aboard that train if the draft grades pan out.
In fairness to the (almost) never-QB crowd, the Lions have really only whiffed on two quarterbacks they’ve passed on the past four drafts: Herbert, the sixth pick in 2020, and Hurts, the 53rd pick the same season. Mac Jones (the 15th pick in 2021) was trending that way as a rookie, but apparently is in Bill Belichick’s doghouse because he wanted a coaching staff that would actually help him develop as a quarterback, and the jury remains out on several other young QBs who were high picks but are trending decidedly in one direction.
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This year’s draft should have lots of intriguing options at quarterback. The best, Alabama’s Bryce Young, seems a good bet to be the first or second pick, and it’s far too early to say how draft grades for the others (C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Hendon Hooker) will play out.
But in general, I believe the Lions should prioritize quarterback over every other position until they have someone they believe is a superstar at the position. That’s no offense to Jared Goff, who has taken a step forward this season, and no support of the defense, which has not.
That’s just the way life is in the quarterback-driven NFL.
Onto the rest of your mailbag questions (some of which have been edited for clarity):
People are already looking at next year’s draft. Who are the best likely free agents available next year, especially on defense? — @hawk48025
Got a lot of future-leaning questions this week, understandably given the Lions’ record. And Hawk is right, fans already are starting to eye favorites in next April’s draft, where the Lions once again will have two first-round picks.
It will be interesting to see how Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell approach free agency. Holmes and Campbell have been patient with their moves so far, but there will be pressure on the pair to win in Year 3.
If the Lions want to be players in free agency, they should have options to help a defense that remains short on playmakers. Chicago Bears linebacker Roquan Smith, Washington Commanders defensive tackle Daron Payne and Cincinnati Bengals safety Jessie Bates are three young players who immediately come to mind who should command top-of-the-market money at their positions.
The best players, of course, rarely make it to free agency, and I suspect that will be the case with two of the best offensive players scheduled to test the market next spring, Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley. But I’ll give you two more defensive names to keep in mind. Both are young, have ties to Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn from their time with the New Orleans Saints, and would fill a position of need in Detroit: defensive end Marcus Davenport and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
What’s your guess for why Oruwariye has struggled? Was he overrated last year and/or has he regressed a lot? Was this clear at all in camp? — @DvsEverybody313
Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye seemed ticketed for his own big-money free agent deal two months ago, but that was before his play fell off a cliff. The Lions’ leader in interceptions last season, Oruwariye is tied for third in the NFL in penalties this year and was a healthy scratch for the Lions’ Week 5 loss to the New England Patriots.
I asked Campbell about Oruwariye’s struggles after the Patriots game. His response: “I would rather not answer that. That’s between he and I.” On Monday, I asked Campbell about Oruwariye again. This time, Campbell downplayed the role Oruwariye’s contract situation was having on his play on the field.
I can’t say for certain what’s at the root of Oruwariye’s struggles, but he missed a game last month with a back injury and has appeared to be trying to do too much sometimes when he’s on the field. Whatever the cause, I don’t think anyone saw him as a true No. 1 cornerback last season despite his INT numbers, and playing more in that role this fall has exposed some deficiencies as a pass and run defender.
Will Campbell be held to the 9-win mantra next season? — @darryle63
I don’t recall anyone mandating a number of wins for recent Lions coaches and I can’t imagine that will be the case with Campbell next fall. No one expected this organization to go 4-17-1 when it hired Campbell and Holmes in January of 2021, and no one is happy with the results now.
This is probably too vague for anyone’s liking, but I would think the Lions need to show discernible and significant progress between now and the end of next season for Campbell to get a fourth year. But the reality is, that’s 15 months from now and a lot can change in that time.
Campbell has done some good things as Lions coach. He has reshaped the culture, he has brought energy and excitement to the organization, and he went to battle last year with one of the worst roster situations in the league. He hasn’t won yet, though, and that’s what people care most about in the NFL.
Looking back now, would the Lions have been better off with Robert Saleh as their coach over Campbell? Also, @iamSauceGardner or @aidanhutch97 in a do-over draft? (I would take Sauce) — @DetroitStrong55
It’s too early to give up on either Campbell or Aidan Hutchinson yet, or to make any definitive statements about who the right choice was for either of the teams. Saleh and the Lions simply did not hit things off in their interview, while Campbell checked off just about every box the organization was looking for. Give Saleh credit for making the Jets relevant again, and doing so with a young roster. But time will tell whether or where the Lions erred in their search.
As for the draft, I thought taking Hutchinson over Sauce Gardner was the right move at No. 2 and a five- or six-game sample size isn’t enough for me to change my opinion. Top pass rushers are more valuable than top corners, and I’m anxious to see how the Lions will tweak Hutchinson’s role coming out of the bye.
There’s no question Hutchinson has not had much impact yet, but the Lions feel like he’s playing well overall. As for Gardner, I haven’t watched him enough to have an opinion on how he’s playing, but I know he’s drawing strong reviews for his play while limiting opponents to a 54.8% completion percentage through six games. Some close to Gardner thought he needed to escape to Detroit to reach his potential, and it appears he’s flourishing so far in New York.
What did you do during the bye week? Family time I hope. — @bpm_ATC
Last year, I took the family on a little bye-week vacation. This year, I spent most of my bye week running the kids around town. Between baseball and basketball practices, flag football games, cross-country meets and other school commitments, I didn’t even get a chance to cut the grass (or at least that’s the excuse I’m using).
We did knock out a couple high school applications for my eighth-grade daughter and we managed to squeeze in a birthday dinner for my wife, but this year was the rare bye week where my workload ticked up in my week off. I wouldn’t have it any other way, though, as I’m sure many parents can relate.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.