Detroit Lions (1-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (9-24-1 overall, 4-17-1 with Lions); Cowboys — Mike McCarthy (147-94-2 overall, 22-17 with Cowboys).
Last game: Lions lost to New England Patriots, 29-0. Cowboys lost to Philadelphia Eagles, 26-17.
Last meeting: Nov. 17, 2019: Cowboys won, 35-27.
Key matchups
Lions OT Penei Sewell vs. Cowboys LB Micah Parsons
Sewell is one of the most gifted offensive linemen in the NFL. Parsons is the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. They won’t match up every snap, but when they do it will be a battle between two of the best young players in the league. The Lions took Sewell with the No. 7 pick of the 2021 NFL draft, five spots ahead of where the Cowboys drafted Parsons. Parsons posted a 13-sack rookie season and has been even better this year. He has six sacks in as many games, plays everywhere on the Cowboys defense, rushing from both sides and occasionally lining up as a stack linebacker, and he has the potential to wreck the game.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Lions CB Jeff Okudah
The Lions have played atrocious pass defense at times this season. Their pass rush has been nonexistent for going on a month, and their starting cornerbacks are a mystery with Jerry Jacobs slated to return from his knee injury, Will Harris battling a hip pointer and Amani Oruwariye fighting to rejoin the playing rotation.
Okudah has been the one constant in the secondary this fall, though he had a down day two weeks ago against the Patriots. Lamb leads the Cowboys with 32 catches and 409 yards — and he’s done most of that while playing with a backup quarterback in Cooper Rush. He’s even more dangerous with Dak Prescott due back from a thumb injury.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Cowboys run defense
D’Andre Swift is could return to the lineup after a two-game absence due to a sprained shoulder and his presence will be a welcome addition to a backfield that has churned out yards but lacked a big-play threat in his absence. Swift is averaging an NFL-best 8.6 yards per carry and must be accounted for in the screen game.
Jamaal Williams won’t fade from the rotation if Swift returns. Williams has at least 15 carries each of the past three games and a team-high six touchdowns. Lions coach Dan Campbell indicated he may be more judicious with Swift’s use going forward to try and keep him healthy. The Lions are a run-first team and they will keep the ball on the ground as much as possible Sunday to try and keep Dallas’ pass rush at bay.
The Cowboys have the NFL’s best defense, but they’ve been vulnerable on the ground. Granted, some of their struggles defending the run came in the zone-read game last week, but the Cowboys have allowed 136 or more yards rushing four times this year, including in both their losses. Safety Donovan Wilson has a team-high 45 tackles and the Cowboys are as deep as any team in the NFL up front. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Cowboys pass defense
What Dallas does especially well on defense is get after the passer. They lead the league with 24 sacks and have a game-wrecker in Parsons, who they deploy all over the field. The Lions are tied for fewest sacks allowed on the season, and it’s imperative they stay out of long down-and-distance situations to keep their pass game functional.
Jared Goff’s biggest issue this season has been turnovers. He’s committed at least one turnover in every Lions loss and has two interceptions and a fumble returned for touchdowns. Goff’s completion percentage has dipped below 60% as the Lions have played with a depleted cast of receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will play at closer to full strength after limping through the Lions’ Week 5 loss to the Patriots, but DJ Chark is out for a third straight game and Josh Reynolds missed two days of practice this week with an ankle injury. The Lions have done a better job pushing the ball downfield this season, but would be wise to keep an extra blocker in when they throw deep Sunday. Along with Parsons, Dorance Armstrong (five sacks), Dante Fowler (three) and DeMarcus Lawrence (three) can wreak havoc off the edge. Edge: Cowboys
Cowboys run offense vs. Lions run defense
Prescott is expected to make his first start since breaking his throwing thumb in Week 1, but Lions defensive tackle Isaiah Buggs said Prescott’s return won’t alter how the Cowboys play.
“They got a great back and the main thing they want to do is have that ball on the ground, running it,” Buggs said. “So us as a defense, we got to stop the run game and eliminate the run game, make them one dimensional and we’ll be all right.”
After years of relying on Ezekiel Elliott for their run production, the Cowboys are now a two-man backfield with Elliott and Tony Pollard playing snaps at about a 60-40 split. Elliott is a powerful runner with good vision, while Pollard (5.3 ypc) is the more explosive big-play threat. Prescott is an effective short-yardage option, too, while the Cowboys have made due without Tyron Smith on their offensive line.
The Lions rank last in the NFL in run defense at 167.6 yards per game. Leaky perimeter run defense has led to big plays, they’ll be without Charles Harris on Sunday and they still are in the midst of tweaking their personnel in the secondary. Edge: Cowboys
Cowboys pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
With Rush running their offense the past five weeks, the Cowboys played things safe in the passing game. Rush took less time to throw than every quarterback but Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and rarely pushed the ball downfield.
Prescott adds a big-play element back to the passing game, though his thumb could remain an issue, and Dallas won’t get too out of character even if it’s not. Lamb emerged as the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver last season. He’s battled drops at times, but is one of the more acrobatic pass catchers in the league. Noah Brown has proven to be a solid No. 2 this season, while top tight end Dalton Schultz is on track to return from a knee injury.
The Lions have been equally bad this season defending the run and pass, where they rank 24th in the league. They have not had a sack in nearly a month, since early in the fourth quarter of their Week 3 loss to the Vikings, and they benched starting defensive backs Oruwariye and DeShon Elliott against the Patriots. Rookie safety Kerby Joseph has played well filling in for Tracy Walker the past two weeks, but the Lions don’t have enough playmakers on defense, Edge: Cowboys
Special teams
The Lions have been weighed down on special teams by problems in the kicking game. Austin Seibert missed two long field goals against the Vikings, Dominik Eberle missed two extra points against the Seahawks, and Campbell didn’t trust Michael Badgley enough to try a 50-yarder against the Patriots. The Lions will make a decision Saturday on whether Badgley or Sam Ficken will handle kicking duties. While field goals could remain problematic, the Lions have one of the NFL’s best punters in Jack Fox and they rank in the top 10 in both kick- and punt-return average.
More:Detroit Lions’ Dave Fipp: ‘We made the exact right call the whole way’ on kickers
The Cowboys rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ composite special teams rankings. Brett Maher has stabilized the kicking game, making 14 of 16 field goals, including 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards, and former USFL standout KaVontae Turpin is one of the best kick returners in the league. The Lions have challenged return men by kicking short most of this season, but could opt for touchbacks against Turpin and with coverage specialist Bobby Price out this week. The Cowboys have one punt block this year. Edge: Cowboys
Prediction
The Lions, losers of three straight, need a win in the worst way coming out of the bye, but that won’t be easy against one of the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFC. The Cowboys should be an angry bunch coming off last week’s loss to the Eagles, and Prescott’s return makes their roster whole again. They have a ferocious pass rush, a balanced offense and they’ve held five of their six opponents under 20 points this season.
The Lions can’t expect to win that low-scoring of a game given the state of their defense, but their recipe for an upset is to run the ball, control the clock, keep Parsons and the rest of the Cowboys front at bay and sneak in a big play or two from their passing game or special teams. Anything short of that, and the Lions’ fading postseason hopes will fall even further out of reach. Pick: Cowboys 31, Lions 21.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.