You don’t last long in this business if you’re not willing to jump to conclusions.
So let’s jump.
Mike Evans’ drop of an easy TD pass last week could signal the end of the Tampa Bay Bucs’ eventful — if too short — Tom Brady Era.
Two other images — also symbolic — came to mind after watching Evans’ rare miscue in last Sunday’s shocking loss to the Carolina Panthers.
First thought was poor ol’ Bill Buckner and that through-the-wickets grounder in Game 6 of the ’86 World Series.
Billy Bucks was an excellent ballplayer for a very long time (over 2,700 hits!), probably on the fringe of future Hall of Fame talk, but guess what went between the commas in the opening paragraph of his 2019 obit.
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The other thought went back to a decade or so before Buckner, to Joe Frazier’s sad attempt to survive George Foreman in their heavyweight championship fight. Frazier, one of the great heavyweights of the 20th century, went down five times during the first two rounds before things were mercifully halted.
It was the fourth knockdown that stood out — Frazier’s knees buckling, then a humiliating (sad, of course, in retrospect) hippity-hop-skip as he attempts to get away but, instead, hits the deck again.
Comparing a missed TD catch to those two historic moments is indeed quite a leap, but again, it’s what we do.
It wasn’t just that Evans dropped a perfectly thrown 46-yard dart from Tom Brady, with no defender within 10 yards of him, at the 25-yard line with nothing but grass ahead of him. It’s also how he missed it.
You’d prefer the ball just whistle through your hands, if you must miss it. Instead, the ball rattled for an instant, clanged off Evans’ panicked left hand as he made a desperate grab at it, then hung in the air ahead of him — yes, one last chance to go get it, but alas, too far away.
Evans, like Buckner and Smokin’ Joe, is a good one. A very good one, in fact. He had no choice but to accept the blame for that early-game mistake, but he attached a lot of weight to it and man oh man, if you want to talk about owning a pratfall . . .
“No one play is the sole reason you lose, but that was definitely the biggest reason,” he said after the Bucs rock-bottomed in Charlotte. “I saw the life go out of us.
“It took me a while to get back playing. We’re taught to play the next play, but it was tough — wide open, one of the best in the game — I’ve got to catch it.”
The lone potential positive is the Bucs’ NFC South, one of several 2022 divisions swamped by mediocrity and/or inconsistency. They only have to finish ahead of the Falcons, Panthers and Saints to make the playoffs with some rediscovered aptitude.
But you can’t be shocked if it continues going downhill and, in the future when reflecting upon the mess, that drop tops the reel of lowlights.
Rank & File: UCF still #1 in Florida, because someone has to be
The weekly (weakly?) ranking of Florida’s seven big-league college football programs, based on results versus expectations, current trends, and of late, a coroner’s report . . .
1. UCF (5-2): Cincinnati at home. Gus Malzahn’s head-coaching career has mostly been a string of seasons with between seven and nine wins. We’re heading there again. Not bad, but not what UCF was thinking just a week ago. Still, even after taking an embarrassing beating, they’re No. 1 here, which tells you something — Bearcats 27, Knights 16.
2. FSU (4-3): Georgia Tech at home. Point spreads are just a thermostat, dialed to wherever the gambling masses tell them to sit. Still, take away the top couple of ACC teams, and tell me how any other ACC matchup could have a 23-point spread. FSU, coming off three losses, is a huge fave over a team that beat Pitt and Duke this month. A win, probably, but come on — ’Noles 27, Jackets 20.
3. Florida (4-3): Georgia in Jacksonville. Look away, just look away. But this does begin the three-week countdown ’til Vandy week — Dawgs 45, Gators 20.
4. FIU (3-4): Louisiana Tech at home, Friday. It’s been exactly three years since FIU won on back-to-back weeks. After crushing C-USA bottom-feeder Charlotte last week, the Panthers move up the food chain for this week’s opponent, but barely — Panthers 30, Bulldogs 28.
5. FAU (3-5): UAB at home. FAU is 3-1 this year in Del Boca Vista; UAB is 0-3 away from Birmingham. You know we’re big on trends here — Owls 23, Blazers 16.
6. Miami (3-4): at Virginia. Mario Cristobal said “we’ll keep you posted” about injured QB Tyler Van Dyke, which means he won’t keep us posted, of course. The guys in Vegas would sure like to know. The rest of us don’t think it matters at this point — Cavs 16, ’Canes 12.
7. USF (1-6): at Houston. In four of their last five losses (i.e. four of their last five games), the Bulls have scored 24-plus points. That explains the inflated over-under of 60-plus — Coogs 43, Bulls 27.
Sunday School: Tua leads with his head, Jags back to London, Bucs swooning
The current ranking of Florida’s three NFL franchises, and coming off a week when Mike McDaniel briefly had me considering excuses for an 0-3 week, opportunity for redemption . . .
1. Miami (4-3): at Detroit (1-5). Plenty of folks were shocked by Tua Tagovailoa’s willingness to lead with his head on a few QB runs last week. Remember, folks, that’s not how he got hurt. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions have gone from preseason darlings to possible winners to hard-luck losers to . . . to . . . yep, back to the Detroit Lions — Fins 27, Lions 20.
2. Jacksonville (2-5): Denver (2-5) in London. The Jags are 4-4 in London, but if we’re grading on a curve, that feels like 8-0. With the trading of James Robinson, the mission now is fully utilizing Travis Etienne without wearing him out — Jags 20, Broncos 17.
3. Tampa Bay (3-4): Baltimore (4-3) at home, Thursday. You don’t know what’s coming from the Ravens on a weekly basis, except a close game. The Bucs, on the other hand, have been shockingly consistent — Ravens 20, Bucs 15 (yes, on five FGs).
— Reach Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com