Detroit Lions mailbag: Most disappointing player; Jared Goff’s chances of a 2023 return

I didn’t win the delayed $1.9 billion Powerball drawing Tuesday, sadly for my heirs, but I hit the mailbag lottery with your questions this week. Let’s hop in.

Do you think Goff is on the Lions roster next season? — @crowlick

It’s been an interesting half-season for Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who played well enough in the first month that he looked like he might stick around for a few years, but has struggled badly enough in the four games since that it seems obvious the Lions will be looking for his replacement come spring, whether quarterbacks coach Mark Brunell wants to acknowledge that or not.

I think the final nine games will determine Goff’s future in Detroit, though if I had to guess right now I’d lean toward him returning for one more season. The Lions absolutely need to find a young quarterback to build around, but there’s no guarantee they will be in position to land one in the draft, and I don’t see many other viable alternatives out there.

If the Lions own the first or second pick of the draft or are able to swing a deal to acquire one of those choices before the start of the 2023 league year, the decision is easy. Goff is due a $20.65 million contract next season, has a $5 million roster bonus due in March, and the Lions could free up roughly $20 million in cap space by letting him go.

If the Lions don’t have a top pick, cutting Goff becomes more difficult because the team still may need a bridge to its future or someone it believes can win in the present. There is no obvious Deshaun Watson/Russell Wilson-type veteran that will be on the move next spring, and the potential free agent options — Baker Mayfield, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett — are Goff-esque.

I do not believe the Baltimore Ravens will let Lamar Jackson become an unrestricted free agent, so I’m not including him as an option, and the Geno Smith-Seattle Seahawks pairing looks too perfect to break up. A lot can change between now and March, so this is a better question for after the season. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Goff returns for one more year.

Dave, it seems with a weaker schedule over the last 1/3 of the season Detroit may play itself out of QB contention. What’s the play if they end up 7-13 in the draft? — @MatthewAPaulso1

I still think a quarterback could be in play in that range for the Lions, if the draft grades for Kentucky’s Will Levis check out. Levis is big, strong-armed and mobile. I doubt he’ll surpass Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud in the prospect pecking order, but he certainly feels like a first-round pick.

The Lions, don’t forget, also have the Los Angeles Rams’ first-round choice, which opens plenty of possibilities. They could try and package both picks to move up if they fall in love with a quarterback (though they’d likely need the Jacksonville Jaguars to leapfrog the Houston Texans or Carolina Panthers in the draft order for that to happen). Or they could take the two best defensive players available and try to bling out that unit.

Door No. 3 might actually be the best option, taking Levis and a defensive player, in whatever order the draft winds dictate. The Lions badly need a young signal-caller, but they have enough holes that adding a top-notch defender in that 7-13 range would feel pretty good, too.

Was health really an issue (with D’Andre Swift) or are the Lions being too careful with their “star” running back? He looked fine during the game, yet only got 7 targets compared to 10 the week before vs the Dolphins. Duce mentioned it’s “a process”, but something isn’t adding up. — Ken Sussex

Ken sent this question via email as part of a longer query about Swift, but it sums up what he and others on Twitter have asked as Swift has battled injuries this season: How and where does Swift fit into the Lions’ short- and long-term plans?

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First, yes, Swift still is battling shoulder and ankle injuries. That’s why his snaps have been limited the past two weeks. The Lions have tried to optimize his workload by putting him in situations and giving him plays where there is the potential for big or important gains. Four of his six touches/targets in last week’s win over the Green Bay Packers (including one that was nullifed by penalty) came on the plus side of the field or at the 50-yard line, and he averaged 10 yards a play when he touched the ball.

Jamaal Williams has run well as the lead back in Swift’s absence and will continue in that role for the foreseeable future, at least until Swift’s health problems subside.

As for Swift’s long-term future in Detroit, he has one more year on his rookie contract and is a difference-maker when healthy. He should remain a part of the offense in 2023, but the Lions can’t count on that happening and need to find a back in free agency or the draft with a similar skill set.

Other than injured players, who has been your most disappointing Lion this year? I’d say Alim McNeill — @FriedrichsJk

McNeill has been solid in the middle of the Lions defensive line, but he has not made many impact plays. I understand why you’d say McNeill if you hoped to see more from him as a pass rusher, but I think the most disappointing Lion is obvious: cornerback Amani Oruwariye.

I never saw Oruwariye as a lock-down cornerback, but he had a productive six-interception season in 2021 and was supposed to bring stability to the secondary while Jeff Okudah was making his way back from a torn Achilles. Instead, Okudah has been the Lions’ best cornerback this season and Oruwariye has twice been benched from his starting job.

With Jerry Jacobs back and Mike Hughes looking more comfortable on the outside, I doubt we’ll see much of Oruwariye at cornerback the rest of the season. For a player who appeared headed for a nice contract extension this offseason, it’s been quite the fall from grace.

Why does Dan coach like he’s playing a video game? — @THEREDRANGER3

The Lions have converted just one of their past 10 fourth down attempts and are 9-for-22 (40.9%) on fourth down tries this season. That may have a video game feel to it, but the reality is most of those decisions were supported by analytics.

Campbell has said he trusts his gut more than he does analytics in those situations, and I think his gut sometimes forgets who he has playing quarterback. But I applaud Campbell’s overall approach, despite the numbers, which I think he summed up well when I asked about his decision to go for two instead of kick an extra point after the Lions’ first touchdown against the Packers.

“If we had an opportunity to get points, I wanted to get points,” he said.

Justin Fields over or under 100 yards rushing against the Lions? Will the Lions employ a spy or not? — @spleen95shortbr

Give me the under. The Bears have started to unlock Fields’ potential by embracing his dual-threat ability and they’d be foolish to change that up against a Lions defense that has struggled to defend rushing quarterbacks this season. Smith and Jalen Hurts both had big days on the ground against the Lions, and even Aaron Rodgers scrambled for 40 yards last week.

Still, 100 yards rushing is a lot for a quarterback. I think Fields has a nice day, but I’m leaning toward starting Dak Prescott over Fields on my fantasy team. Put me down for 60 or so yards rushing.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.