The mass hypnosis event afflicting metro Detroit after the first four weeks of the NFL season — namely, that Jared Goff was something more than a placeholder in the Detroit Lions’ seemingly everlasting search for a franchise quarterback* — appears to have passed as the Lions settle securely into at least the top 10 of the 2023 NFL draft.
*Matthew Stafford excepted, of course.
The Lions’ five-game losing streak even had them sitting at No. 1, leaving Honolulu Blue fans dreaming of their squad having its pick between Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. But last week’s win over the Green Bay Packers dropped the Lions to fifth in the draft standings (though Carolina’s win Thursday night moved the Lions back up to fourth, behind Houston, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh). Still, there are nine games left this season, beginning with Sunday’s matchup with the Bears in Chicago — that’s a lot of time for the Lions to tumble back into the top two.
And then there’s the Lions’ second first-round pick, acquired from the L.A. Rams as part of the Stafford trade; the Rams are 3-5 and hovering just outside the top 10, meaning the Lions could spend a high pick on another defender and still wind up with the third-best QB on the first night of next year’s draft. (Or, because they’re the Lions, the sixth-best.)
Whatever the Lions’ plans are, it’s never too soon to take another look at the QB class of 2023; actually, it’s almost too late, with most QBs getting just three more games, plus a postseason game (or two or three, potentially), to boost their stocks.
With that in mind, here’s a look at 10 QBs that should go sooner rather than later in the draft (sorted by tier and then alphabetically), as well as the best time to scout them in November.
The big two
Igniting heated arguments in bars and on sports radio and message boards across the country, these two aren’t sure things at the NFL level — but they seem pretty close.
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
The buzz: It’s tough to argue against the two-year body of work from last year’s fourth-place finisher in Heisman Trophy voting, even if you believe Buckeyes QBs are fated to fail in the pros. (Though we will point out that Stroud’s career passer rating of 186.3 drops all the way to 179.4 if you take out his two games — 53-for-61 for 12 TDs and one interception — combined against Michigan State.)
When to watch: The Buckeyes get Indiana and Mary — hah, no, just kidding — we’ll all be tuning in at noon Nov. 26 on Fox to see if Stroud can avenge himself against Michigan in Columbus, after mustering just two passing TDs in last year’s matchup.
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Bryce Young, Alabama
The buzz: The reigning Heisman winner is on pace to throw only 30 touchdowns this season (depending on Bama’s postseason plans), well off his 47 in 15 games last season. He has been a little less stellar in other ways — his completion percentage is down four points, and his passing yards per attempt has dropped from 8.9 to 8.2 — just enough to make the issue of his maybe-barely 6-foot stature loom a little larger than it should.
When to watch: The Crimson Tide visits Ole Miss at 3:30 p.m. Saturday on CBS; if you miss that, skip trying to tune into next week’s game against FCS foe Austin Peay and just catch the Iron Bowl against Auburn on Nov. 26.
S-E-C you later?
We never thought the SEC would be the go-to conference for passing prospects, but years of trying (and mostly failing) to beat Alabama have brought them to this. (But we’re still not recommending Georgia’s Stetson Bennett IV, no matter how many national titles he wins.)
Jayden Daniels, LSU
The buzz: The bayou has been just what the Arizona State transfer needed, apparently; he went from 10 TDs and 10 picks in 13 games last season to 14 TDs and one pick this year. His 131 rushes for 619 yards and 10 TDs aren’t too shabby, either.
When to watch: If you miss his game against Arkansas on Saturday (noon, ESPN), there’s a 9 p.m. start vs. UAB on ESPN2 on Nov. 19 and a season finale against Texas A&M.
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
The buzz: Another transfer in his second season in the SEC, Hooker might want to bring coach Josh Heupel’s offense with him; in 22 games with the Vols, Hooker has 52 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Last week’s loss to Georgia was his first game at Tennessee without a touchdown pass since his debut in September 2021 — when he attempted one pass in mop-up duty behind ex-Michigan QB Joe Milton.
When to watch: The Vols face 6-3 South Carolina in a night game Nov. 19 on ESPN or SEC Network; it’s not the most challenging matchup, but it’s better than our other pre-bowl options: Missouri or Vanderbilt.
KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
The buzz: Jefferson’s passing numbers this season aren’t bad — 17 touchdowns, three picks and 1,981 yards in eight games — but it’s his rushing ability that makes him an intriguing pro prospect. Adding the 128 yards lost on 18 sacks back in, Jefferson has 99 rushes for 553 yards, an average of 5.6 yards a carry.
When to watch: The Hogs have prime matchups this week (noon vs. LSU on ESPN) and next (7/7:30 Nov. 19 vs. Ole Miss on ESPN or SEC Network), but with a crowded field in eight days’ time, we might as well pencil in his 3:30 p.m. Friday-after-Thanksgiving matchup with Mizzou on CBS.
Will Levis, Kentucky
The buzz: The former Penn State QB’s numbers in eight games played in his second season in Lexington — 68.1% completion percentage, 1,903 yards, 16 TDs and eight interceptions — are eerily on pace to match last year’s stats. But he’s still 6-3 and 220 pounds, so he looks the part, and has shown enough arm strength and confidence — as Mel Kiper Jr. put it, “it’s clear watching him that he believes he can fit the ball into any window” — to draw comparisons (get ready, Lions fans) to Stafford.
When to watch: If you’ve got the SEC Network, you can check him out vs. Vanderbilt at noon Saturday — or you can wait until he faces a pro-level defense vs. Georgia at 3:30 p.m. Nov. 19.
West Coast offense
These four aren’t likely to get much Heisman hype thanks to some, ahem, Eastern/Midwestern media bias, but try and carve out some evening time to scope them out.
Max Duggan, TCU
The buzz: At the risk of coming off like the College Football Playoff commit, Duggan and the Horned Frogs’ unbeaten run hasn’t always been pretty, but he has done enough when it counts: Completing 66% of passes (despite sub-60% completion numbers in three of his past four starts) for 2,407 yards, 24 touchdowns and two interceptions.
When to watch: It’s another primetime showcase deep in the heart of Texas — Austin, to be exact — as TCU visits No. 18 Texas on Saturday night at 7:30 on ABC. Next week’s start against Baylor (time, TV TBD) might be equally entertaining, though.
Jaren Hall, BYU
The buzz: If you were on Hall’s hype train before the season, his 2,622 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and five interceptions probably have you riding high. If you weren’t, his struggles against Notre Dame and Liberty have you wondering why he’s on this list. Especially considering his two-year Mormon mission and an extra year sitting during the height of the pandemic has the junior a bit behind his fellow members of the recruiting class of 2016: Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. (Also, Shea Patterson … but this isn’t a guide to USFL QBs, is it?)
When to watch: Hall, 24, has two games remaining: Next week against Utah Tech (the FCS-level school formerly known as Dixie State) and Nov. 26 against Stanford. BYU needs a win in at least one to become bowl-eligible; we’d recommending waiting till then to tune in.
Bo Nix, Oregon
The buzz: Since Georgia shut him down in the season opener (173 yards, no TDs, two picks), the Auburn transfer has been productive and efficient — 75.8% of his passes complete for 2,322 yards, 22 TDs and three picks — while not being particularly challenged; Oregon hasn’t trailed by more than 3 points since Sept. 29 against Washington State.
When to watch: Saturday’s primetime matchup with I-5 rival No. 22 Washington (7, Fox) could be a barnburner … but next week’s matchup against No. 13 Utah, time and TV to be determined, should be a true test.
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
The buzz: Michigan State fans, stop reading now. Since shredding the Spartans for 397 yards and four TDs on Sept. 17, Penix has passed for 2,153 yards, 13 TDs and four interceptions in six games. Maybe it’s Kalen DeBoer’s play-calling, and maybe Penix’s long injury history makes him a risky pro prospect before Day 3 of the draft, but he also did this at Indiana, which is another level of difficulty altogether.
When to watch: If you can’t catch Saturday’s matchup at 7 vs. Oregon, you’ll have to wait till Nov. 26’s Apple Cup showdown with a solid Washington State team that already took down Wisconsin in Madison (time and TV TBD) — or find a rare buddy with Pac-12 Network access for Nov. 19’s game against woeful Colorado.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.