Allen Park — You don’t have to say the Lions are legitimate playoff contenders. Not yet.
You don’t have to say Jared Goff is the franchise’s long-term quarterback. Not yet.
You don’t have to say Dan Campbell has weathered the worst of it and is on his way to being a stellar head coach. Not yet.
You do have to admit a few things, even if naturally predisposed to skepticism about the Lions. You have to say they’re trending in the right direction, with a solid base of young talent, led by a general manager who certainly appears to know what he’s doing.
With four victories in five games, they have our attention, and the NFL’s attention too. The 5-7 Lions are favored by two over the 10-2 Vikings at Ford Field, and I don’t know if that says more about the Lions’ recent revival, or the Vikings’ skimpy margins of victory. With rare December playoff implications, Sunday’s game is as big as it gets around here, and that’s astonishing to say considering they were 1-6 before Halloween.
If you admit nothing else, admit this: The Lions under Campbell and Brad Holmes are vastly improved from a year ago, even six weeks ago. And because they’ve done it with promising young players and an experienced quarterback who carries growing chips of confidence, this doesn’t feel fake.
You know what turned out to be fake? When the Lions led the Vikings 24-14 midway through the fourth quarter in Minnesota on Sept. 25. We don’t need to totally rehash Campbell’s gaffe, opting to try a 54-yard field goal with 1:14 left instead of attempting a game-clinching fourth-down play or punting. Kirk Cousins quickly maneuvered the Vikings for a touchdown to win, 28-24.
That was the first of five straight losses, and if Campbell ever was going to doubt himself — his aggressive mindset, his leadership skills — it would’ve been then, on the heels of a 3-13-1 season. If he didn’t question it, others sure did. Campbell joked this week that the difference now is, “Nobody’s MF’d me to my face or anything yet.” (Note to Campbell: Historically, they do it behind your back).
‘We’re better’
So from there to here, what happened? More important, what is happening?
“Look, I know we’re better,” Campbell said. “We’re better than we were when we played them the first time. Certainly, our defense is a lot better. We’ve come a long way, and it’s a credit to (defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn) and his staff and the players. There’s a lot of confidence right now. Guys understand the plan.”
There’s better health now too. And there’s more evidence that Holmes could be an exceptional GM, with all eight of his 2022 draft picks contributing, from the expected (Aidan Hutchinson) to the unexpected (sixth-rounder James Houston has three sacks in two games) to unwrapped first-round prize Jameson Williams, who made a brief debut in the Lions’ eyebrow-raising 40-14 dismantling of the Jaguars.
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Are the playoffs realistic? Depends on how you define realistic. They won’t win the NFC North, sitting five games behind Minnesota. Various mathematical projections peg their chances at a wild card anywhere between 8% and 13%, but it likely would require them to win their last five. That’s improbable, but with this slate — at the Jets, at the Panthers, home to Chicago, at Green Bay (current combined record of 19-31) — it’s not impossible.
Either way, the pathway doesn’t change: Pain always precedes playoffs. Campbell said he’ll think about that collapse against the Vikings “until the day I die.” More likely, he’ll think about it until the day the Lions make the playoffs, which I officially declare the expectation for next season.
“It happened for a reason, and honestly, I think us losing five in a row is why we’re where we are right now, that’s kind of how I look at it,” Campbell said. “Maybe we needed this to happen to get to where we are.”
Wherever they are remains unclear, but it’s getting clearer. The final judgment isn’t in on Goff, but he’s been sharp for large chunks of the season. He says, “I’m playing the best football of my career right now,” a profound statement from a guy who guided the Rams to a Super Bowl. It helps that his outstanding offensive line is healthier, D’Andre Swift is working his way to full capacity, Jamaal Williams is a touchdown machine, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has become an absolute star with 76 receptions.
It seems the perceptions of Campbell and Goff flip almost weekly. But as far as firm declarations, my view hasn’t changed: Let it play out for the full season.
Sure enough, as it plays out, Campbell and Goff are leveling out. Goff has thrown eight touchdown passes and one interception his last six starts. Campbell still goes for it on fourth down more than anyone, but despite the frantic wails from some, his decisions usually are analytically sound.
Trust in Campbell may have wavered outside the locker room, but apparently not inside, from players or ownership. Sheila Hamp strongly defended Holmes and Campbell during the early struggles, and players’ actions on the field are matching their words.
“We just knew internally as a team what we had,” St. Brown said. “It was just a matter of time, we felt like, that things would turn around. Because a lot of those games we lost were super close, and like I talked about earlier, finishing games.”
All the right moves
Finishing games happens more frequently when it’s a finished product. The Lions are a long way from that. But enticing pieces are in place, and more will be available.
Holmes has drafted wisely, but this isn’t just about rising rookies. It’s also about the reward of pulling off big trades. Dealing Matthew Stafford for Goff and two first-round picks and a third-rounder gave the Rams one year of Super Bowl glory. Good for them, good for Stafford. That’s now over, and persistent injuries might jeopardize Stafford’s career.
The Rams have plummeted to 3-9, and at the moment their pick would be fourth overall. It will go to the Lions, whose own first-rounder sits at No. 15. Holmes also landed second-round and third-round picks from the Vikings for tight end T.J. Hockenson and a couple lower picks. It was a move for the future, obviously, but it hasn’t damaged the present. The Lions are averaging 28.4 points since dealing Hockenson, who returns Sunday as a Viking.
Thanks to Goff’s stellar play of late, you now can have a reasonable discussion about sticking with him longer and not drafting a quarterback high, although they need to add one somehow. Top prospects Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis may or may not be franchise-changers. The better bets are defensive stars such as Alabama’s Will Anderson and Georgia’s Jalen Carter.
It feels like the Lions have played two seasons this year, finishing 1-6, then starting 4-1. Every team wants consistency, and it starts at the top. Campbell hasn’t panicked or veered madly, and his tough decisions to fire two assistants — Anthony Lynn last year and Aubrey Pleasant six weeks ago — produced better fits. Goff raves about new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who raves right back.
Holmes’ long-term vision hasn’t shifted either, and his move to grab the injured Williams in the first round could work out ideally. For anything to work out, it has to play out. And ironically, for all Campbell’s bombast, it’s his steady tone that stands out.
“I never thought about changing who I am because I knew that was right,” Campbell said. “That doesn’t mean I didn’t tweak a couple of things, but the essence and core of who I am and the way I think, no, I haven’t changed any of that.”
You don’t have to say the Lions have all the right people in all the right places. Not yet. But you do have to admit, there are more promising parts than we’ve seen in a good long while.
Twitter: @bobwojnowski