Ten thoughts on the Detroit Lions’ 34-23 win over the Minnesota Vikings, their biggest win in 11 seasons:
· That’s right, everything considered, Sunday’s victory was the biggest this franchise has had since 2011. They’ve played more complete games since then (against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week) and made two playoff appearances in that time (in 2014 and 2016), but when it comes to a meaningful late-season victory against a quality opponent, the Lions have not had a bigger one since they beat the then-San Diego Chargers in Week 16 of the 2011 season, 38-10, to clinch their first postseason berth in 12 years.
When the Lions made the playoffs in 2016, they backed their way in with three straight losses as Matthew Stafford battled a finger injury. And as good as the Lions’ season was in 2014, they got drubbed late in the year by the New England Patriots, won four straight games against sub-.500 teams, then lost to the Green Bay Packers with a chance to win the division.
There wasn’t an NFC North title on the line Sunday, not for the Lions, at least. But the stakes still were high and the Lions had an impressive showing against a good team to keep their playoff hopes alive.
∙ Speaking of the playoffs … FiveThirtyEight.com puts the Lions’ odds of making the postseason at 20% right now. That number has more than doubled since last week, and if I’m being honest, it still feels light.
The Lions have one game left against a team with a winning record, at the New York Jets this week, then close the season with games at the Carolina Panthers, home against the Chicago Bears and at the Green Bay Packers, teams with a combined .333 win percentage.
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The Jets (7-6) have lost two straight and need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. That should be a dogfight of a game. Steve Wilks has the Panthers (5-8) playing well, or at least hard. And the Bears (3-10) and Packers (5-8) are division games. Nothing will be easy.
But the Lions are better and healthier than all four teams they face. It’s not unreasonable to expect four more wins, with a 3-1 finish as the baseline.
The Lions still have to leapfrog two of the New York Giants, Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks to get a wild card spot, but that seems doable after Sunday. The Giants and Commanders play next week, so the loser will have a half-game lead on the Lions in the playoff race, while the Seahawks blew a winnable game Sunday and enter their most difficult three-game stretch of the season against the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs and Jets.
The Seahawks (7-6) are a game ahead of the Lions in the standings and own the head-to-head tie-breaker if they finish with the same record.
· Projecting ahead, if the Lions get into the postseason, they likely will face either the Vikings or 49ers in the first round. The 49ers might have lost Deebo Samuel for some period of time and are down to their third-string quarterback, but they still seem like the tougher out given Kyle Shanahan’s excellence as a coach and their dominant defense.
The Lions split with the Vikings, but were in position to win the first meeting between the teams in September. In fact, the Lions have trailed for a total of 45 seconds in their two games against the Vikings this season and came away from Sunday believing they are the better team.
“I think for the most part we are the better team,” safety DeShon Elliott told me after the game. “It’s just, they are a great team as well and they have a great No. 1 receiver and the whole game goes through him.”
· Justin Jefferson, of course, is that No. 1 receiver, and he’s a really, really, really good player. Jefferson set a Vikings franchise record with 223 yards receiving on 11 catches Sunday, and was a few blades of turf away from an even bigger game when he whistled out of bounds on a catch down the sideline (I thought he stayed in, for what it’s worth).
Jefferson runs great routes to get open and catches passes in traffic when he’s not. Watching him operate Sunday, it’s amazing the Lions held him to 14 yards in the first meeting.
“He’s a hell of a player, man,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “I think he’s one of these rare dudes you don’t see very often and when you do he’s hard to contain.”
· Campbell and his staff outcoached the Vikings on Sunday, and it’s not wrong to say that was the difference in the game. The Vikings failed to execute at three different inflection points Sunday: on a fourth-and-1 on their opening series (after a Chris Board offsides penalty gave them fresh life on fourth down); in their two-minute drive at the end of the first half (when Dalvin Cook fumbled on the goal line); and on their two-point try in the third quarter when they started chasing points.
I thought Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell made a huge gaffe in calling a halfback pass from the 3-yard line on the Cook fumble. The smart play there, with 1:06 left in the half and the Vikings due to receive the ball to start the third quarter, was to run the ball and force the Lions to burn their last timeout. O’Connell took an unnecessary risk that backfired badly and gave the Lions momentum heading into the locker room.
· I wasn’t a fan of the fake punt the Lions ran in the third quarter, either, given the timing and spot on the field. It worked, so of course it turned out to be right. But had it backfired, and had the Vikings connected on their halfback pass, we might be looking at both the Lions and Vikings differently today.
That’s the fickle nature of the business, why every team can almost always say, “We were one or two plays away,” and why I do appreciate Campbell’s aggressiveness as head coach.
The bottom line in the NFL is good teams make plays more often than not, and in almost every circumstance I’d rather keep the ball in my good players’ hands when the game is on the line.
· Thinking a little bit about the good players the Lions have, I’d try to sign defensive tackle Isaiah Buggs to a contract extension before the end of the season if I was Detroit, and I’m pretty sure Buggs would be open to such a deal.
Buggs won’t command huge money on the open market as a two-down run-stopper, but he’s been an important player for the Lions this season and he’s playing some of the best football of his career. He adds girth to the middle of the run defense, something the Lions don’t have much of on their roster, and he was an overwhelming presence Sunday with three quarterback hits.
He’s not the Lions’ biggest-name pending free agent. DJ Chark, Jamaal Williams and Alex Anzalone also will be unrestricted free agents in March. But at 26 years old, he’s worth keeping around.
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·With four weeks left, the Lions still are trending toward having a top-five pick in next spring’s NFL draft (thanks to the Los Angeles Rams). Currently, the Rams have the fourth pick in the first round, behind the Houston Texans, Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears. If the Bears win one more game and the Rams lose out, that pick will move up to No. 3. (The Broncos likely would need two more wins to fall behind the Rams, based on strength of schedule.)
It’s amazing to look at the draft order and see the high picks that already have changed hands due (mostly) to last year’s quarterback shuffling. The Seahawks own the Broncos’ pick at No. 2, the Philadelphia Eagles have the New Orleans Saints’ pick at No. 5 and the Texans own the Cleveland Browns’ pick at No. 12. Including the Lions, that’s three potential playoff teams that could stumble into an extra top-five draft pick.
One more thought I had while checking the projected draft order on Tankathon.com: Last year, seven teams finished with six or fewer wins. Currently, 14 teams have records of 5-8 or worse. There are a lot of bad football teams in the NFL right now. Be thankful the Lions aren’t one of them.
· Should be a classic matchup between the Lions and Jets this weekend. The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL — they rank fifth in points, fourth in yards and top 10 in most other categories — while the Jets have one of the league’s best defenses (fifth in points allowed, third in yards allowed).
The Lions have scored 25 points in five straight games and have topped 30 a league-high seven times this season. The Jets have allowed more than 20 points once since Halloween, and more than 30 once all season.
— Final thought for the day: Enjoy what could be Ben Johnson’s final four games as Lions offensive coordinator. As good as the Lions offense has been this season, Johnson is going to be a hot commodity on the coaching circuit in January. And as bright as he is, it’s hard to imagine him not getting a job.
Johnson’s offense is creative, fun to watch and has maximized the Lions’ offensive talent, and the Lions will have a huge hole to fill whenever he leaves.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.