Detroit Lions (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6)
The coaches: Lions-Dan Campbell (14-27-1 overall, 9-20-1 with Lions); Jets-Robert Saleh (11-19 overall, all with Jets).
Last game: Lions beat Minnesota Vikings, 34-23. Jets lost to Buffalo Bills, 20-12.
Last meeting: Sept. 10, 2018: Jets won, 48-17.
Key matchups
Jets DL Quinnen Williams vs. Lions LG Jonah Jackson: Williams missed two days of practice this week with a calf injury and is questionable to play, but when right, he’s one of the NFL’s best interior linemen. Williams, who plays primarily over the left guard, leads the Jets with 11 sacks and is a disruptive presence in the run game. Jackson is one of the best left guards in the NFL. He should be a lock to make the Pro Bowl when teams are announced next week and is playing some of the best football of his career since returning from a finger injury. The Jets have talked up their need to pressure quarterback Jared Goff this week, and even if Williams does not play they have the talent up front to do that. But if you love trench battles, 50 or so snaps of Williams against Jackson is about as good as it gets.
Lions CB Jeff Okudah vs. Jets WR Garrett Wilson: Wilson leads the Jets with 63 catches and 868 yards receiving, and has been the team’s top playmaker since running back Breece Hall went down with a torn ACL in October. The No. 12 pick of April’s draft, he’s a tough, sure-handed receiver who Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said is one of the better tackle-breakers he has seen this year. “Wilson’s the real deal. He’s a really good player,” Glenn said. Okudah should draw the primary assignment on Wilson, his former teammate from Ohio State, now that he has recovered from the illness that zapped his stamina and had him in and out of the lineup last week. Okudah has excelled in run support this season. The Lions need him to be as effective in the pass game Sunday.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Jets run defense
Campbell did not hesitate Monday when asked to name one area the Lions need to clean up despite their recent winning ways. “We got to get better in our run game,” he said. “We have to have better run efficiency on offense. That’s a definite.”
The Lions rank 11th in the NFL in total rushing (127.5 ypg) but are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry over the past six games. D’Andre Swift has been a bigger factor in recent weeks as he has gotten healthy, but the Lions had one rush longer than nine yards last week, not including their fake punt. In cold weather, this could be a game the Lions feature the bruising Jamaal Williams, who leads the NFL with 14 rushing touchdowns.
The Jets rank top 10 in most defensive categories, but aren’t quite as dominant against the run (111.8 ypg allowed) as they are elsewhere. Williams will be sorely missed if he can’t go, but New York’s cornerbacks are willing run defenders and linebacker C.J. Mosley is sixth in the NFL with 125 tackles. Edge: Jets
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Lions pass offense vs. Jets pass defense
With Ben Johnson calling plays and Jared Goff taking care of the football, the Lions have one of the most dangerous passing games in the NFL. Goff has not thrown an interception in his past 181 pass attempts, dating back to the second half of a Week 9 win over the Green Bay Packers, and the Lions have rediscovered their deep passing attack with the addition of Jameson Williams and DJ Chark’s improved health.
Both Chark and Williams caught long touchdown passes last week, and while he still is likely ticketed for a minimal role, Williams’ speed helps open the middle of the field for Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions have done a good job keeping Goff upright in recent weeks, and that will be necessary against a Jets pass rush which believes Goff is a different player when he’s under pass rush pressure.
The Jets have one of the NFL’s best cornerback tandems in rookie Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, and safety Lamarcus Joyner has a team-high three interceptions. The Jets rank fourth in pass defense (189.4 ypg allowed), fourth in sack rate (9.13%) and sixth in interception rate (2.81%). They are on par with the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys as the best defenses the Lions have faced this season. Edge: Lions
Jets run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Jets play the type of complementary offense you’d expect under the defensive-minded Saleh. They’ve succeeded despite a patchwork running game on its third starting running back of the season who’s playing behind a beat-up offensive line.
Rookie Zonovan Knight has run for 230 yards in three games and seems to be ahead of Michael Carter in the Jets’ backfield rotation. Carter outsnapped Knight last week, but Knight had more than twice as many touches and Carter, in his return from an ankle injury, lost a fumble. Both should see significant action behind a line that got tackle George Fant back in the starting lineup last week but has been without Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker most of the year.
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The Lions have held three of their past four opponents below 100 yards rushing and bottled up Dalvin Cook and the Vikings (17 carries, 22 yards) last week. They’re getting good play from interior defensive linemen Isaiah Buggs, Alim McNeill and Benito Jones, though they still rank 26th in the NFL against the run overall and are allowing more than 5 yards per carry. Edge: Lions
Jets pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
The Jets have attempted 105 passes the past two weeks out of necessity as they’ve fallen behind by double digits in losses to the Buffalo Bills and Vikings. Mike White played reasonably well after replacing Zach Wilson as starting quarterback, but doctors did not sign off on his return Sunday and that offensive approach is not sustainable if the Jets are going to make the playoffs.
Wilson seems to be a polarizing figure in the Jets locker room after he shifted blame for some of his struggles. He later apologized to the team. He’s more athletic than White and adds a zone-read element to the offense, but he’s much more erratic as a passer. The Jets have a talented rookie in Garrett Wilson, but the rest of their receiving corps has been inconsistent and Corey Davis is out with a concussion.
After scaling back their early down defense in October to account for their youth, the Lions have started to dial things up again. This might be a game where defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn goes after Zach Wilson early. The Lions have forced 11 turnovers in their past six games. Edge: Lions
Special teams
The Lions have done a great job of stealing possessions on special teams, including with a fake punt last week, but that probably won’t be necessary in what could be a low-scoring game. Michael Badgley missed his second field goal in three weeks against the Vikings, but rebounded to hit the clincher in the final minutes. He’s a perfect 5-for-5 on field goals at MetLife Stadium in two games this season. The Lions rank second in the NFL in kick- and punt-return average thanks to Justin Jackson, Kalif Raymond and solid core units.
The Jets have a middle-of-the-pack special teams according to Football Outsiders’ composite rankings. They’ve given up one punt return touchdown this season, but have blocked two punts and have an effective returner in Braxton Berrios (12.3 yards per punt return). Greg Zuerlein has had a bounce-back season at kicker, making 6 of 8 field goals from 50-plus yards. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The Lions can move within a half-game of the NFC’s final wild-card spot with a win, but putting up points on this Jets defense won’t be easy. The Jets have allowed more than 22 points in a game once since September, and they are as well-rounded a unit as any in the league. I see two avenues for a Lions victory: They get off to a hot start and force the Jets’ ball-control offense to play from behind, and/or they effectively end Zach Wilson’s career in New York by forcing him into another turnover-riddled game. The Jets sound like a team determined to get after Goff, and that could be the equalizer. If he resorts to his turnover-prone ways, the Lions will miss out on a golden opportunity to improve their playoff standing. Pick: Jets 23, Lions 21
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.