We’re a week removed from the end of the Detroit Lions’ 2022 season, and a week into the NFL playoffs, and as those two realities collided in my head this weekend, I couldn’t help but think what might have been had the Lions made the postseason.
Had the Los Angeles Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18, the Lions would have traveled to San Francisco for a rain-soaked wild card game against the 49ers.
The 49ers were easily the most dominant of the 10 teams that played Saturday and Sunday, beating the Seahawks, 41-23, in the only playoff game so far decided by more than a touchdown. The 49ers have the league’s best defense, and Brock Purdy looked better than any rookie quarterback I can remember in the postseason, throwing for 332 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover.
The Lions might have been running into a buzz saw had they qualified, but the 49ers didn’t look invincible out of the gate. Purdy survived some early-game jitters to put up his big stat line, and the Seahawks led, 17-16, at halftime only to come undone with turnovers and penalties in the second half.
We’ll never know if the Lions with Ben Johnson’s offense could have turned the spigot on even more and built enough of a lead to get Purdy and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan out of their comfort zones, but the old adage Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes repeated a dozen or so times last week certainly seems to apply: Get in the dance and anything can happen.
That’s where we’ll start my thoughts for the week:
Realistic expectations
The Lions won six more games this season than they did last year, tying the Jacksonville Jaguars for biggest improvement in the NFL, and they should enter next season as the favorite to win the NFC North and perhaps a dark horse to reach the Super Bowl.
The Minnesota Vikings looked as fraudulent as everyone expected in their first-round playoff exit, the Green Bay Packers are (once again) awaiting word on Aaron Rodgers’ future, and the Chicago Bears finished this season with the worst record in the league.
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Holmes downplayed it last week, but there is a significant jump from the nine-win, almost-there tier the Lions are in now to legitimate Super Bowl contender, where teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills reside.
“I don’t think it’s more difficult,” Holmes said. “As long as we continue to stay the path and stay the course and stay committed and disciplined in our approach, I would expect more improvement, and if more improving means the difference of being right on the cusp of the playoffs to being in the playoffs, then yes, that’s exactly what I would expect (next season).”
I love that the Lions are embracing expectations for 2023, and Holmes is right, the Lions should take another step forward next season. But so much can get in the way of progress — injuries, contracts, departures, schedule, the pressure of wearing the bulls-eye — that it’s not a given.
“I feel like there is unfinished business as a team,” linebacker Alex Anzalone told reporters last week. “I feel like if we made the playoffs not a lot of teams would want to see us and we were playing, you could argue, top five in the NFL football as a team.”
Better than you think
To Anzalone’s point, the Lions are 2-2 against teams that advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs, beating the New York Giants, who sent the Vikings home packing, and drubbing the Jacksonville Jaguars, a come-from-behind winner over the Los Angeles Chargers, and losing to the Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.
(The Lions also lost to the Dallas Cowboys, who play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night for the final divisional playoff spot.)
Combined margin of victory in the Lions’ wins over the Giants and Jaguars: 39 points. Combined margin of defeat in the Lions’ losses to the Bills and Eagles: six points.
I don’t think the Lions are in the same class as the Bills or Eagles, but there’s an argument to be made they’re not in the same class as the Giants or Jaguars, either.
A quarterback league
The teams with the best chance to win a Super Bowl year in and year out, the teams most built to sustain success, are the teams with the best quarterbacks, and all those teams currently reside in the AFC: The Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Bills (Josh Allen) and Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow).
Jalen Hurts had a nice year, and maybe he joins that class eventually (though I’d argue Justin Herbert, with better coaching, and perhaps Trevor Lawrence — two more AFC QBs — are more likely). But who else is even sniffing that group in the NFC?
There are no elite quarterbacks in the NFC right now, which makes the path to the Super Bowl wide open. That’s all the more reason to think the Lions pass on a quarterback early in the first round of this year’s draft and continue trying to drown their roster with talent.
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Jared Goff had a nice season, and, yes, the Lions should always be on the lookout for their Mahomes. But the 49ers and Eagles are the favorites in the NFC because they have talented top-to-bottom rosters with difference-makers at multiple spots. If the Lions build and keep that kind of roster (not easy with the salary cap), they can contend for a long time (while always keeping an eye out for their Mahomes in the draft).
C’mon, ref!
Just to close the book on the Lions’ near-playoff miss: I’m sure you saw the ESPN story from the weekend about the officiating gaffes in the Seahawks’ Week 18 win over the Los Angeles Rams, when Seattle benefitted from a running into the kicker penalty on its game-tying touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
I generally tune out the yelling that goes on about officiating calls. Sure, that penalty was questionable, and I get why so many thought Quandre Diggs should have been penalized for taunting after his overtime interception. But the Lions missed the playoffs because they started 1-6 and they no-showed the Carolina Panthers on Christmas Eve, not because Baker Mayfield and a shell of a Rams team couldn’t beat the Seahawks in Seattle.
Now, I will grant those upset about the officiating this: The NFL has to be more aware of optics. Specifically, the crew chief of the Seahawks-Rams game, Craig Wrolstad, was a longtime high school athletic director in the Seattle area.
I don’t think there was anything remotely nefarious about the officiating in that game. Wrolstad was the alternate referee for Super Bowl 52. He obviously has a good reputation. But the league can do everyone a favor by using some common sense in its late-season assignments.
Looking for a promotion
According to multiple reports from the weekend, Johnson is the frontrunner for the Panthers job. Johnson interviewed with Carolina (and the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts) by video last week and is expected to meet in-person with the Panthers this week.
Since multiple people on Twitter asked why he would leave the Lions for Carolina, let me be crystal clear on some of the many reasons: Because it’s an NFL head coaching job, and there are only 32 of them; because he grew up in North Carolina and went to college there; because it would he get a considerable pay bump; because David Tepper is one of the wealthiest owners in the NFL, and willing to spend to win; and because the Panthers, presumably, will be in the market for a young quarterback to build around this spring.
I get people don’t want him to leave and some are fearful of what will happen to Goff and the offense without him. Johnson is a bright coach who deserves all the attention he’s getting. But if he gets an offer, of course he should go.
Next man up?
I don’t have a good handle on who the Lions would target to replace Johnson if he leaves, but two internal candidates sure to generate interest are assistant head coach/running backs coach Duce Staley and tight ends coach/pass game coordinator Tanner Engstrand.
Staley came to Detroit to bolster his head coaching resume, and moving into a play caller role would do that. And Engstrand is similar to Johnson in that he’s a young assistant who’s spent his NFL career largely out of the public eye but has enough respect internally that Campbell gave him more responsibilities this season.
I could see Campbell calling plays next season, and I certainly think he needs to entertain candidates from outside the organization. This is too good a job now not to.
Feeling a draft
Big draft news Monday as Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud finally made it official and declared for the draft. Stroud should go in the top five and likely will be the second quarterback taken, depending on how high Kentucky’s Will Levis surges up draft boards.
That’s good news for the Lions, who own the sixth pick and could stumble into a defensive player (or trade partner) who might not otherwise be there had Stroud returned to school. It’s way too early for me to do a mock draft, but I could see the Lions continuing to stack defensive line talent early in the first round; they need help at cornerback either at No. 6 or No. 18, and Texas running back Bijan Robinson is a player who’d make sense for the Lions, too, as much as I dislike the thought of going running back in Round 1.
As for the first five picks, in no particular order, I’d guess: Bryce Young, Stroud, Will Anderson, Jalen Carter and perhaps Levis, with the Bears perhaps going offensive line in a trade down.
Grab that jacket
The Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee meets soon — we’re not supposed to divulge the date, though I’m sure it will leak out — to discuss this year’s class. As a reminder, this is not like baseball, where voters (I’m one of them) cast a yes-no vote and everyone getting a certain percentage gets in.
We discuss the 15 modern-era candidates, whittle that list to 10, then vote from 10 to five before giving a yes or no vote on the final five. So the five candidates I think are most deserving might not be the final five I vote yes/no on in the room.
I’ll reserve final judgment until we discuss the candidates; the back-and-forths can be enlightening. But I do think first-year candidates Joe Thomas and Darrelle Revis are virtual locks to get in. Devin Hester had a lot of support as a return specialist last year last January, it’s a good group of pass rushers (DeMarcus Ware, Dwight Freeney and Jared Allen) and I’m guessing there will be a push to break the logjam at receiver (Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne).
Next man up, II?
I made the Calvin Johnson presentation to the selection committee a few years ago, and this time of year always makes me wonder who I’ll have to present next. There’s no one coming down the pipe anytime soon — Freeney played five game for the Lions in 2017, so he doesn’t count — but Ndamukong Suh and Matthew Stafford, when they retire, both deserve consideration.
Stafford’s case seems less appealing after his tough season than it did last February, but he’s still going to finish his career as one of the NFL’s all-time leading passers and with at least one Super Bowl ring. Suh was a three-time first-team All-Pro, a Defensive Rookie of the Year and he could get his second ring this month.
Neither is a slam dunk like Johnson, but both will be in the discussion one day.
Playoff picks
My picks for the playoffs next week: Give me the chalk in both conferences. The Chiefs will beat the Jaguars, who are out of playoff magic, and the Bills survive a close game at home against a Bengals team that’s extremely beat up on its offensive line. In the NFC, the Eagles and 49ers are a level ahead of everyone else in conference, though that Micah Parsons and that Dallas defense will give the 49ers a game.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.