It’s the time of year to throw some darts, figuratively speaking, of course.
As we do every year leading up to the NFL draft, we’ll offer a series of first-round projections following the offseason’s milestone events. With the Senior Bowl in the books, it’s time to present our inaugural mock draft, which we’ll revisit and revise after the combine and free agency in mid-March, and a third time in the days before the actual draft in late April.
This also comes with an annual reminder not to take mock drafts too seriously, particularly this early in the process. Right now, our focus is primarily on getting you familiar with the top prospects and the team needs of their potential employers scheduled to select in the opening round.
Additionally, we won’t be including any trade proposals in this projection. It just further muddies up an already-cluttered process.
With the Detroit Lions, specifically, the team holds two choices in the first round, No. 6 and No. 18, with the former coming over from the Los Angeles Rams as the final piece of 2021’s Matthew Stafford trade. As you’ll soon see — at least the fraction of you that didn’t zoom past this intro directly to that No. 6 pick — it’s not an ideal spot. The Lions will likely miss out on the top defensive players and be left to pick an option from the second tier. There are plenty of good options, but none that immediately jump out as great.
At 18, things are more wide open, positionally speaking. The Lions could stand to upgrade a number of spots, and general manager Brad Holmes won’t be a prisoner of positional value in the middle of the first round like he might be with that earlier pick.
That should just about cover us for an introduction, so let’s get on with the mocking.
▶ 1. Chicago Bears — Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama
Honestly, I don’t expect the Bears to stick at this spot. With a quarterback already in place, they can open up the top choice to the highest bidder. A number of teams, including Houston, Indianapolis and Las Vegas could get involved with those talks. But, since we’re not working hypothetical trades into this early mock, we’ll slot the Bears a top defender in Anderson.
He’s averaged nearly 70 quarterback pressures during his three seasons at Alabama and will provide an immediate boost to a defense that finished last in sacks in 2022.
▶ 2. Houston Texans — Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Whether they hang tight at two or end up swapping with the Bears, it would be surprising if the Texans started the DeMeco Ryans era with anything other than a quarterback. Young admittedly comes with size concerns, possessing a frame similar to Arizona’s Kyler Murray, but the 2021 Heisman winner is the most polished passer in this draft class, possessing an above-average arm, steady accuracy in the pocket and on the move, and the ability to extend plays and create with his feet.
▶ 3. Arizona Cardinals — Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Cardinals could also put this pick on the block for a QB-hungry team behind them, but hanging at three presents them an opportunity to land an impact defender in Carter, who can help fill the void created by J.J. Watt’s retirement. The 6-foot-3, 300-pound Georgia standout is equally effective playing the run and the pass, with an excellent combination of speed, length and power for the position.
▶ 4. Indianapolis Colts — Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Colts have been playing quarterback roulette since Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement, busting in a big way last year while trying to squeeze another productive season out of former MVP Matt Ryan. Sure, they could try to trade for another veteran, such as Derek Carr, but it’s probably time to try and find a franchise option via the draft. Levis’ numbers at Kentucky won’t wow you, but he possesses a high-ceiling tool set, drawing reasonable comparisons to Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming.
▶ 5. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos) — Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
After starting his collegiate career at Texas A&M, Wilson developed into a high-level prospect with the Red Raiders. With prototypical size at 6-foot-6, 275 pounds, he sets a mean edge while offering plenty of juice as a pass rusher. In 2022, he tallied a personal-best 50 quarterback pressures, including 7.0 sacks for the second straight year
▶ 6. Detroit Lions (via Rams) — Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Ahead of any moves in free agency, the Lions’ biggest need is defensive tackle, but there isn’t a compelling option after Carter this early in the draft. And while a case could be made for Clemson defensive linemen Myles Murphy or Bryan Bresee, there’s a reason why Witherspoon is gaining some early offseason momentum as the pick for the Lions.
It’s not just the team’s need for a starting-caliber cornerback with Jeff Okudah’s future uncertain as he enters the final year of his rookie contract, but Witherspoon’s demeanor and ball skills that make him a clear fit at No. 6. Whether it’s leading the Illini in special-teams tackles as a freshman or his aggressiveness in run support, he has the makeup and intangibles general manager Brad Holmes craves throughout the roster.
▶ 7. Las Vegas Raiders — C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
After getting past the Lions, who look to be fully committed to Jared Goff, Stroud will provide the Raiders and coach Josh McDaniels a fresh start at the quarterback position. The Ohio State standout offers all the physical gifts a team could desire, but he’s struggled with handling pocket pressure during his college career. Of course, those issues didn’t show up in an exceptional performance against a talented Georgia defense in the College Football Playoff, bolstering hopes of a bright NFL future.
▶ 8. Atlanta Falcons — Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Not only does Murphy offer a nice blend of size and athleticism, he delivered three years of consistent production for the Tigers, averaging approximately 40 tackles, 12 tackles for a loss and 6.0 sacks during the stretch. He’s also shown a knack for dislodging the football, forcing six fumbles. Murphy is a better run defender than pass rusher at this stage of his development, and the Falcons have a huge need for someone who can pressure the pocket, but he just turned 21 and likely hasn’t come close to reaching his ceiling.
▶ 9. Carolina Panthers — Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Add the Panthers to a group of teams who could be looking to move up, including as a potential trade partner with the Lions. Frank Reich needs a quarterback, and with the top three options already off the board, we’re slotting Richardson to Carolina, even if it feels a little premature for the toolsy dual-threat. He has great size, measuring in at 6-foot-4 and 232 pounds, paired with rare athleticism that pops off the screen when watching a highlight reel. The problems with the resume are accuracy and consistency. A good developmental plan and some patience could result in a pretty good player, well-suited for the modern game. But he won’t work at the next level if he can’t find a way to complete a higher percentage of passes than the 54.7% he connected on during his time at Florida.
▶ 10. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints) — Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Eagles are going to need to restock the cupboard in the secondary, both for next year and the future. James Bradberry’s one-year deal expires at season’s end, and he should be able to find more security and money on the open market. Additionally, All-Pro Darius Slay will be entering the final year of his deal and will turn 33 years old by the time it expires. Porter is a long, physical talent who made life difficult on opposing quarterbacks targeting him in coverage last season and would be a natural fit in Philadelphia’s zone-heavy coverage scheme.
▶ 11. Tennessee Titans — Broderick Jones OT, Georgia
With a nearly $15 million cap hit and no dead money tied to it, many observers believe the Titans will be cutting ties with longtime left tackle Taylor Lewan. That would work out well in this projection, since the franchise would have their choice of offensive linemen once on the clock. We opted to slot them Jones over the other top prospects at the position because even though he’s relatively inexperienced, with fewer than 20 starts for the Bulldogs, he’s proven to be a premium pass protector. On top of that, he can be downright nasty in the ground game, which remains the heart of everything the Titans want to do on offense.
▶ 12. Houston Texans (via Browns) — Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
If you’re going to draft a quarterback, it’s a pretty good idea to give him some weapons. The Texans already have a good, young running back, so the team can focus on giving Young (or whichever passer they end up with) a No. 1 outside option. Johnston, in three years with the Horned Frogs, consistently proved to be a big-play threat, averaging 19.0 yards on his 115 receptions, including 14 scores. That big-body X wideout will pair nicely with speedy veteran Brandin Cooks (if he’s not traded) and John Metchie III, last year’s second-round pick who missed his rookie year to undergo treatment for leukemia.
▶ 13. New York Jets — Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
There’s going to be some veteran quarterbacks on the move, and it sure feels like the Jets are going to make a play for one of them, including the possibility of trying to reunite new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers. Whoever ends up taking the snaps, the Jets will need to do a better job protecting him. George Fant is a free agent, Duane Brown will be 38 years old when the regular season begins, and who knows if Mekhi Becton will ever get it together. Enter Johnson, who allowed just two sacks and 28 total pressures the past two seasons for the Buckeyes, while offering steady run blocking.
▶ 14. New England Patriots — Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Patriots had a middle-of-the-road offensive line last season, but with right tackle Isaiah Wynn headed to free agency and blindside blocker Trent Brown a potential cap casualty, it’s looking like a good time to retool up front. Skoronski is a technically proficient, plug-and-play starter who has effectively mitigated concerns his length could force a move inside at the next level.
▶ 15. Green Bay Packers — Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love quarterbacking the Packers in 2023, the team needs more weapons in the passing game. USC receiver Jordan Addison is another option, but a physical tight end with a dual-threat skill set is a better fit for the often-frigid conditions of Lambeau Field. Meyer is a good blocker, an above-average route runner and has excellent hands. If Green Bay turns the keys over to Love, there are few positions more valuable than a reliable tight end for a young QB.
▶ 16. Washington Commanders — Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Commanders probably have a bigger need along the offensive line, but there’s better value at cornerback with the 6-foot-2, 200-pound Gonzalez. He picked off four passes in his lone year with the Ducks. Equally impressive, he missed just three tackles on the perimeter. He should make for a solid, short-term pairing with Kendall Fuller, who is entering the final year of his contract in 2023.
▶ 17. Pittsburgh Steelers — Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
I’m in charge of this thing and even I was surprised Bresee was still on the board. If the medicals check out, the former five-star recruit could fill a big need for the Steelers. In this projection, they reap the benefits of the 300-pounder’s slide more than a year removed from a torn ACL. He wasn’t as sharp against the run in his first season back from injury, but he continued to be one of the nation’s best interior pass rushers.
▶ 18. Detroit Lions — Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Yes, running back has been devalued in the past decade or so, and teams continue to prove you can find good backfield talent throughout the draft if you’re willing to pull the handle on the slot machine enough times. That said, Robinson has the look and feel of a can’t-miss option who would be under team control for up to five seasons.
The 220-pounder has the bulk to run between the tackles, the speed to get the corner, advanced route-running skills out of the backfield and an unmatched ability in this draft class to make the first man miss, whether running through that defender or freezing him with a sharp cutback.
Detroit is committed to its ground game and offensive balance, and while Jamaal Williams has been solid, Robinson’s ability is on a different plane. The addition could also really open up Detroit’s play-action passing game, which is a strength of Goff’s.
▶ 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
Tampa Bay has several defensive backs set to be free agents, including a trio of safeties. Branch is scheme-versatile and a strong open-field tackler who would pair nicely with Antoine Winfield Jr. in the back end of the Buccaneers’ defense.
▶ 20. Seattle Seahawks — O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Seattle retooled its offensive line last year with a pair of rookie offensive tackles, but the unit still has some issues along the interior, particularly at right guard. That’s where Gabe Jackson’s $11.3 million cap hit far outsizes his performance. Torrence is a mountain of a man who is coming off an impressive week at the Senior Bowl.
▶ 21. Los Angeles Chargers — Jordan Addison, WR, USC
It’s looking likely the Chargers will part with longtime No. 1 pass catcher Keenan Allen this offseason. That move will clear more than $14 million in space for the cap-strapped franchise. By adding Addison, who has been compared to Allen because both are superb route runners, the team can prevent a significant dropoff with quarterback Justin Herbert’s arsenal.
▶ 22. Baltimore Ravens — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Once viewed as a likely top-10 pick, Smith-Njigba’s stock has slipped after a hamstring injury kept him off the field for much of the 2022 season. That opens the door for the Ravens to get a bargain on a player who caught 95 balls as a sophomore a year earlier, injecting some much-needed talent into the team’s receiving corps.
▶ 23. Minnesota Vikings — Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Minnesota’s top two corners by playing time, Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan, are both set for free agency. Peterson, the eight-time Pro Bowler, has repeatedly expressed interest in returning, but even if he does, he’ll be turning 33 this summer. Ringo has elite size and athleticism traits, which give him appealing upside.
▶ 24. Jacksonville Jaguars — Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
With a scheduled cap hit of more than $17 million, and coming off a season ended by a back injury, it’s likely the Jaguars will be looking to replace starting cornerback Shaquill Griffin. Smith had some penalty issues last season, but also held opposing quarterbacks to a sub-50 completion percentage for the second straight year, while breaking up 16 passes and intercepting four across that stretch.
▶ 25. New York Giants — Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
After two years at Alabama, Sanders transferred to Arkansas and broke out in a big way, earning All-America honors in 2022 with 103 tackles, 9.5 sacks, five pass breakups and three forced fumbles. How badly do the Giants need an upgrade at the linebacker position? Well, they were leaning on Jarrad Davis in the playoffs, after poaching him off the Lions’ practice squad late in the season.
▶ 26. Dallas Cowboys — Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
The Cowboys’ defense was solid last year, but wasn’t particularly effective against the run, allowing nearly 130 yards per game. That weakness starts with subpar interior play, which could be quickly remedied with the addition of the 350-pound Ika. Admittedly, this projection might be too practical for Jerry Jones, who could easily end up going with a more-flashy skill position selection.
▶ 27. Buffalo Bills — Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
Buffalo has had a stellar safety tandem the past few years, but Jordan Poyer’s deal is expiring and Micah Hyde’s contract runs out after next season. With a tight cap situation, it would be wise to inject a young, cost-controlled piece into the secondary. Johnson brings a fiery demeanor, big frame and schematic versatility, having played a lot of nickel early in his college career. He could be a plug-and-play option at strong safety to replace Poyer’s role in the scheme.
▶ 28. Cincinnati Bengals — Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
To build on the team’s recent success, quarterback Joe Burrow must be protected at all costs. And while the Bengals trimmed the sacks they allowed in 2022, they need to do more to keep the rush away from their franchise player. Harrison showcased his protection skills for the Sooners last year, allowing a single sack and nine total pressures in more than 400 pass-blocking snaps.
▶ 29. New Orleans Saints (via Broncos) — Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
The Saints found their way back into the first round after trading the rights to coach Sean Payton to the Broncos. That creates an opportunity to add White, an athletic edge rusher who tallied 7.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss last season. He can replace and hopefully exceed the production of Marcus Davenport, the former first-rounder who is set to be a free agent.
▶ 30. Philadelphia Eagles — Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
The final two spots in the first round will be settled based on the result of the Super Bowl, but for this projection, we’re just using the betting line for the game to set the order. With productive, but aging pass rushers Brandon Graham and Robert Quinn finishing out their current contracts, the team could stand to add some fresh legs to its pass-rush mix. Van Ness, a highly productive rotational player at Iowa, is expected to be an even better pro.
▶ 31. Kansas City Chiefs — Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Amazingly, the Chiefs’ passing attack continued to hum along even after trading Tyreke Hill to Miami. But with Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster headed for free agency, quarterback Patrick Mahomes gets a new weapon in Flowers. A small, shifty receiver, he creates quick separation and is a problem in space once the ball is in his hands. This addition could help keep Kansas City’s offense at the top of the mountain.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers