Ten thoughts on the Kansas City’s Super Bowl win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and what’s in store for 2023:
Mahomes’ career best ever to this point
It’s not hyperbole to say Patrick Mahomes is off to the greatest start by a player in NFL history.
In five years as a starter, Mahomes has five 12-win seasons, five AFC West titles, two Super Bowl rings, a third Super Bowl trip, two overtime losses in the conference title game, two MVPs and two Super Bowl MVPs.
CBS shared an amazing statistic late Sunday night: By pulling off the MVP double this year, Mahomes joins a select group of Tim Duncan, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr and Mario Lemieux as the only players in the history of the four major professional sports to win multiple league MVPs and multiple finals MVPs before turning 28 years old.
Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in NFL history with seven rings, three MVPs — his second came when he was 33 — and the all-time NFL passing mark. Mahomes has a long way to go to match Brady’s Super Bowl success, and Brady always will have the head-to-head win over Mahomes from Super Bowl 55. But here’s hoping everyone appreciates the greatness we’re witnessing from Kansas City’s 27-year-old quarterback.
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Mega Hurts
As good as Mahomes was Sunday, Jalen Hurts deserves his due, too.
Hurts was runner-up for MVP this season and matched Mahomes throw for throw (and run for run) in the Super Bowl. I’ve been hesitant to include Hurts in the very small elite group of NFL quarterbacks, but he showed Sunday he belongs in the conversation with Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
Hurts’ dual-threat ability sets him apart from most other quarterbacks in the league, and he threw some phenomenal balls (including one to tight end Dallas Goedert) as the Eagles built their 10-point first half lead then rallied back to tie the game in the fourth quarter.
Hurts is head and shoulders the best quarterback in the NFC right now, which is reason to believe the Eagles will be back in this game soon. Philadelphia has some roster massaging to due this offseason, but the Eagles have the benefit of having Hurts on a rookie deal for one more season (he’ll get an extension this offseason, but the big cap hits can be delayed till 2024) and most importantly, they have their long-term answer at the quarterback position.
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Hey coach, offense first please
Sunday’s Super Bowl was Exhibit A in why so many teams want offensive-minded head coaches, and why it’s hard to imagine Ben Johnson being the Lions offensive coordinator at this time next year.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid has been a huge and sometimes overlooked part of Mahomes’ success, and his creative genius was on display in Sunday’s second half. Reid has two Super Bowls in Kansas City and led the Eagles to the game a generation ago. He’s a Hall of Fame coach who at 64 years old remains one of the sharpest minds in the NFL, and the Chiefs don’t have to worry about him being poached by their competitors.
The Lions were fortunate to keep Johnson this season, but when nine jobs come open next hiring cycle instead of the five that were open this year, he’ll have ample opportunity to take over his own program so long as the Lions keep up their high-scoring ways.
Tight ends and Super success
I don’t particularly like the idea of spending a first-round draft pick on a tight end if I’m the Lions (for the fourth time in 15 years!!), but there’s a pretty strong correlation between top tight ends and Super Bowl success.
The Chiefs have the best tight end in the NFL and a future Hall of Famer in Travis Kelce, and Goedert might be the second-best tight end in the game. Both delivered big plays Sunday and both are mismatches on the field.
From Kelce to Rob Gronkowski (both in New England and Tampa) to Zach Ertz, most of the recent Super Bowl champs have had an above-average weapon at the position, and many of the runner-ups have, too, (Greg Olsen, George Kittle).
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Olsen was the only one of those players drafted in the first round, so there’s a value proposition at play with the position. But this has the makings of a strong tight end draft — Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, Georgia’s Darnell Washington, Oregon State’s Luke Musgrove, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid and Iowa’s Sam LaPorta are all potential top-50 picks. Don’t be surprised if the Lions, with an ex-tight end in Dan Campbell as coach, are linked to one or more of those players as the spring goes on.
The big penalty
Credit to Eagles cornerback James Bradberry for copping to his defensive holding penalty on the Chiefs’ game-winning drive. Like the call or not, Bradberry did grab Juju Smith-Schuster twice as Smith-Schuster changed directions on his route.
Bradberry told reporters after the game, “it was holding,” and “I tugged his jersey,” and, “I was hoping they would let it slide.”
A lot of players would be furious about that call at that stage of the game. It takes a big person to own up to your role in the penalty, and leave it at that, in the aftermath of an emotional loss.
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Should Lions poach an Eagle?
Bradberry is one of several key free agents on Philadelphia’s defense, along with Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Brandon Graham, T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. The Eagles won’t be able to keep all those players, so their defense could look significantly different in 2023.
From the Lions’ perspective, Hargrave is the most attractive of those free agents for the inside pass rush he provides, though his price tag — an estimated $20.1 million, according to Spotrac — seems prohibitive. Gardner-Johnson played for Campbell and Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn with the New Orleans Saints and Edwards is a 25-year-old three-down linebacker, but the Lions have young players at both positions they may want to get on the field.
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For openers
The Chiefs will open the 2023 NFL regular season Sept. 7 in the annual kickoff game, and while the Lions are one of nine opponents on Kansas City’s home schedule next season, I can’t see them as a fit for the opener.
The Chiefs also host the Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, and it makes sense the NFL schedule makers put one of those teams in that choice TV spot. The Bengals and Chiefs have played in the past two AFC title games, and everyone loves a Super Bowl rematch.
The Lions could play the Chiefs in Germany next November, though it makes sense to keep that game domestic as it’s been two decades since the Lions have played a game at Arrowhead Stadium.
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Early 2023 odds
In way-too-early odds from BetOnline.AG, the Lions are 33-1 to win the Super Bowl next season, tied for the 14th-best odds in the league with the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints.
The Packers’ odds will drop if Aaron Rodgers retires or is traded, and the Saints’ odds surely depend on them landing Derek Carr or another veteran quarterback this offseason. The Chiefs (5-1) and Eagles (7-1) have the two best odds, and just three NFC teams — Philadelphia, the San Francisco 49ers (8-1) and Dallas Cowboys (16-1) — have better odds than the Lions, so much will be expected of them next season.
My reaction
That seems fair, frankly.
The Eagles and 49ers will be the teams to beat in the NFC, and the Cowboys should have a very good defense again. Beyond that, no one in the NFC looks better right now than the Lions, who will return one of the best offensive lines (and offenses) in football and have two first-round picks to add to their 9-8 team.
The Packers will contend if Rodgers returns, the Vikings can’t be discounted after winning 13 games, a healthy Rams team will be formidable again, the Giants should be better in Year 2 under Brian Daboll and I could see Washington in the playoff mix if it adds a quarterback. A lot will depend on Jared Goff’s continued growth, but I’d be disappointed if the Lions don’t win the NFC North next season the way things stand in mid-February.
Buckle up
We’re a little over 200 days till the next meaningful NFL game, but the league never sleeps. The combine is in two weeks, free agency starts in mid-March, the owners meetings follow at the end of that month and the draft in Kansas City is a little more than 10 weeks away.
I’ll do my first mock draft before the combine, where a handful of local prospects will be on display. Michigan had nine players invited to the combine this year, Michigan State and Eastern Michigan had two each, and Central Michigan and Ferris State had one. Here’s a list of combine invites from those schools:
Michigan: WR Ronnie Bell, OL Ryan Hayes, K Jake Moody, DL Mike Morris, OL Olu Oluwatimi, P Brad Robbins, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DL Mazi Smith, DB DJ Turner.
Michigan State: P Bryce Baringer, WR Jayden Reed.
Eastern Michigan: DL Jose Ramirez, OL Sidy Sow.
Central Michigan: DL Thomas Incoom.
Ferris State: DL Caleb Murphy.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.