There have been strong hints of it, but the Detroiti Lions prime position in terms of 2023 draft capital has been confirmed.
The Detroit Lions are one of a four teams with two first-round picks this year, but only one other team (the Houston Texans) have two in the top-18 overall as the Lions do. Going further, the Lions have two second-round picks and they’ll have four of the top 60 picks. They also have another pick in the top-85 (81st overall).
The Lions will have a great opportunity to add more young talent to the roster, and general manager Brad Holmes showed he’s willing to be aggressive if there’s a player he likes when he moved up to get Jameson Williams in last year’s draft.
There are multiple measures to help quantify draft capital heading into a draft. It’s safe to say the Lions are in a very good position, as easily expected from a broader view.
Detroit Lions’ prime draft capital position has been confirmed
Per Pro Football Focus’ Wins Above Replacement (WAR) model, as offered by analyst Timo Riske, the Lions have the third-most draft capital in the league.
The famous “Jimmy Johnson” chart is a de facto way to value draft capital. The “Rich Hill” chart has also taken some prominence in recent years.
Here’s how the Lions fair in those two charts. Each one attaches value to individual picks in each round.
1-Texans: 5029.1
2-Bears: 3830.4
3-Seahawks: 3768.2
4-Lions: 3514.8
1-Texans: 1451
2-Bears: 1265
3-Seahawks: 1113
4-Lions: 1033
Ultimately, how draft picks are valued on the Johnson and Hill charts is only significant in trying to tab trade value and what it may take for a team to move up and meet the perceived value of a higher pick. Those picks will become players eventually.
It’s good to be in a good draft capital position, and it’s definitely better than the alternative. Through his first two drafts Holmes proved he can find players on Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3, and this year he’s in a powerful position to move around the board or just take a full bushel of good young players.