When the new NFL league year opens next week, one item high on the Detroit Lions’ to-do list will be to find a backup quarterback for Jared Goff.
Lions general manager Brad Holmes admitted at the NFL combine last week he neglected the No. 2 quarterback spot the past two seasons while trying to build other areas of his roster. And while the Lions were lucky that did not come back to bite them last year — Goff started every game for the first time since 2019 — Holmes does not want to leave his contending team without a security blanket in 2023.
“I feel like last year we kind of left training camp kind of sliding into home plate trying to fill that backup quarterback role and that’s on me,” Holmes said. “I’ve got to do a better job of making sure that we’re not in that position again, so that is something that we’re going to need to address, whether it’s here in free agency or upcoming in the draft.”
The veteran quarterback market remains in a holding pattern for now, with NFL teams waiting to see what happens with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
Once the Packers and Rodgers come to an agreement on Rodgers’ future, that could start a domino effect of quarterback-needy teams filling their vacancies. The New Orleans Saints and Derek Carr agreed to a free agent deal Monday, and the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders are among other teams who could be in the market for a veteran starter.
The Lions’ pursuit of a backup likely will not be impacted by the top of free agent quarterback market.
With about $23 million in available cap space, the Lions are not candidates to spend big at the position, and some pending free agents like Daniel Jones (if he avoids the franchise tag), Geno Smith (who’s expected to re-sign with the Seattle Seahawks) and Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking for starting jobs — or the chance to compete for one — this fall.
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Holmes praised the job Nate Sudfeld did as the Lions’ backup last season. The Lions signed Sudfeld, who played nine offensive snaps last season and did not attempt a pass, days before the regular season opener after he was released by the San Francisco 49ers, when Tim Boyle and David Blough failed to impress in their bids to win the job in training camp.
Holmes was adamant the Lions will not be caught shorthanded at the position again.
“Look, we love Jared, he’s our starter, he’s our guy going into (2023), but we don’t have anything behind him,” Holmes said. “I thought Nate did a nice job when we got him, but he’s a UFA as well. So again, we got to make sure that we address everything again, whether it’s free agency and through the draft.”
The Lions seem unlikely to take a quarterback with one of their two first-round picks, Nos. 6 and 18 overall, but could go the developmental route with one of their remaining picks.
Holmes said “some of those guys at the quarterback position in free agency might not be ready to make a decision” before the draft, preferring instead to wait to see which teams invest in young quarterbacks.
But several pending free agents fit the profile Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said he wants in his backup quarterback.
Johnson said he’s less concerned with a backup quarterback’s skill set and whether he’d present a change-of-pace for opponents — a mobile quarterback, for instance, behind a pocket passer like Goff — than he is with finding “the best guy that can win a game for us.”
“When I look at a backup quarterback, the two areas that I start with are third down and two-minute (offense), because that’s where they really have the most impact,” Johnson said. “Base downs, you normally, I think you can mask them to a degree with the running game or the play-action pass. But if you want to see the true character, the true identity of a backup quarterback, it’s those third downs and the two-minutes, to know if the game’s on the line, do they have that ability to ultimately win it for you?
“Cause there’s a number of backups out there that — I think that’s probably the majority of the backups out there, they’re just more just, keep the train on the tracks, let’s just manage this thing. The really good ones, the best backups, are the ones that can still win a ballgame for you. I think if you look at the record, the win-loss record for backups in the league, it’s hard to find ones that are over .500.”
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Excluding Jones, Smith and Garoppolo, here are how several of the top backup quarterbacks set to hit the market compare in win percentage, third down passing and late-game, two-minute situations.
All statistics are from Stathead.com, and several options have ties to the Lions’ staff:
Teddy Bridgewater, Miami Dolphins
Bridgewater, 30, went 0-2 as starter for the Dolphins last season but checks several important boxes. He’s 33-32 as a starter with seven career game-winning drives, including two with the New Orleans Saints, when Lions coach Dan Campbell was an assistant there in 2019. Bridgewater had a 94.4 passer rating on third downs in 2021, when he started 14 games for the Denver Broncos, and is a 65.2% passer (with 24 TDs and 14 INTs) on third down for his career. When tied or losing in the final two minutes of games for his career, Bridgewater has completed 62.5% of his passes with three touchdowns. He played for $6.5 million last season.
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Case Keenum, Buffalo Bills
Keenum started the first nine games of the 2016 season for the Los Angeles Rams, when Goff was his backup as the team’s No. 1 overall pick. Goff has said Keenum was crucial in his development, so the two appear to have a good relationship. Keenum, 35, is 29-35 in his career as a starter with 10 game-winning drives. He’s a 55.1% passer on third down for his career, with 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, and a 52% passer in trailing or tied late-game, two-minute situations. He made $3.5 million last season with the Bills.
Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia Eagles
Minshew, 26, is younger than some of the other quarterbacks on this list, and has an 8-16 career record as a starter (including 0-2 with the NFC champs last season). He stacks up well in some of the other metrics Johnson likes. A 61% passer on third down for his career, Minshew has thrown 18 touchdowns and five interceptions in these situations, and last year had an 85.1 passer rating on third down. When trailing in the final two minutes of games, Minshew is 40 of 66 passing for 490 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. He started his career with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the franchise Lions quarterbacks coach Mark Brunell played for (and the city he lived in) before coming to Detroit in 2021. Minshew was on the final year of his rookie deal as a sixth-round pick last season.
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders
Heinicke played in the XFL and was briefly out of football before resurrecting his career with Washington. He went 5-3-1 as a starter for the Commanders last season, throwing 12 touchdowns with six interceptions, and nearly led them to the playoffs. Heinicke’s third down passing numbers (54.1%; 8 TDs, 8 INTs) are similar to Keenum’s, and he was 10 of 13 for 180 yards and a touchdown when trailing in late-game, two-minute situations last season.
Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns
Brissett has been thrust into some difficult situations in his career. He started two games for Tom Brady in 2016, was a late-summer replacement for an injured Andrew Luck in 2017, and was the placeholder for Deshaun Watson with the Cleveland Browns last season. He has an 18-30 career record, including 4-7 last season, and is a 57.2% passer on third downs for his career. Brissett has five touchdowns and two interceptions while trailing in late-game two-minute situations. He made $4.65 million last season.
Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints
Dalton is the most experienced backup quarterback on the market, having made 162 career starts (83-77-2) with the Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys and Saints. He went 6-8 as starter in New Orleans last season and has 29 career game-winning drives and a 56.7% completion rate on third downs. Last season, Dalton was 8 of 17 passing for 85 yards while trailing in the final two minutes of games. He played for $3 million last season and had another $3 million in incentives.
Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Lions were rumored to be interested in Rudolph last summer, but the Steelers ended up keeping him as their third quarterback. Rudolph, 27, is 5-4-1 as a starter with one game-winning drive. He lost his only start last season, but is a 56.9% passer on third downs for his career. Though it’s a small sample size, Rudolph is 9 of 14 passing for 66 yards with a touchdown while trailing in two-minute situations for his career. He was a third-round pick in 2018 and made a little over $5 million last season.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.