Predicting what happens to Detroit Lions NFL free agents: Why Jamaal Williams will return

Detroit Free Press

The free agent negotiating period opens at noon Monday, when, barring any last-minute deals, the Detroit Lions’ 16 unrestricted free agents can officially start speaking to other teams.

The Lions don’t have any top-of-the-market free agents, but do have several starting-caliber players they hope to retain on both sides of the ball.

Here’s a look at the Lions’ 2023 UFA class, and a prediction for who will and won’t return.

Offense (5)

DJ Chark

Position: WR.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $10 million.

Buzz: Bet on himself last spring, signing a one-year deal that allowed him to test free agency again in 2023. Did not have a great season; he missed six games with an ankle injury and finished with 30 catches for 502 yards. But in a down receiver market, that should be enough to cash in with a multi-year deal this week. The Lions could re-sign Chark. They need a receiver to pair with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. But with St. Brown a year away from a contract extension, they won’t want to tie up too much money at the position.

Prediction: Lands a three-year deal elsewhere for more than $30 million.

Jamaal Williams

Position: RB.

Age: 27.

2022 contract: $3.75 million.

Buzz: Led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns last season and became the first Lion to top 1,000 yards since Reggie Bush in 2013. Remains the only unrestricted free agent to sign a multi-year deal with the Lions under Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell, and there is mutual interest in a return. As obvious a fit as Williams is in Detroit, signing him isn’t a given. The Carolina Panthers, with former Lions running backs coach Duce Staley, and Buffalo Bills are among other teams interested in adding Williams to their backfield, though Williams’ preference is to stay in Detroit.

Prediction: Turns down slightly more money elsewhere to stay with the Lions.

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Justin Jackson

Position: RB.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $1.035 million.

Buzz: Played in 16 games last season, primarily on special teams. Averaged nearly 27 yards as a kick returner, logged 42 carries as the team’s No. 3 running back and likely will have a similar role if he’s back in 2023. Jackson won’t linger on the market until summer like he did last year, and this draft appears to be deep at running back. Still, he’s worth keeping around in Detroit.

Prediction: Unless a team falls in love with Jackson’s return ability, he re-signs on a one-year deal.

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Evan Brown

Position: OG/C.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $1.2 million.

Buzz: Has been an invaluable part of the Lions’ offensive line the past two seasons, starting 12 games at center in 2021 when Frank Ragnow was out with a foot injury, and playing right guard most of last year. The Lions have a decision to make on Halapoulivaati Vaitai before free agency, and what happens there could have a direct impact on Brown’s future. If the Lions keep Vaitai on his current contract or restructure the deal, Brown will have to go elsewhere to find a starting job. Even if they don’t, Brown might command a free agent deal too rich for the Lions to match.

Prediction: Lions keep Vaitai, and let Brown walk.

Nate Sudfeld

Position: QB.

Age: 29.

2022 contract: $1.035 million.

Buzz: The Lions have made it clear they intend to upgrade their backup quarterback spot this offseason, but how and when they do that leaves the door cracked open for Sudfeld’s return. If the Lions are spurned on the veteran quarterback market or decide they want to wait until the draft, it makes sense to bring Sudfeld back on a one-year deal. If they sign a bona fide backup, the only way Sudfeld returns is as a No. 3. And as Holmes said last week, some veterans will choose to wait until the draft to sign to see which teams invest in young QBs.

Prediction: If the Lions don’t draft a developmental quarterback, Sudfeld returns in late spring.

DAVE BIRKETT:NFL free agency preview: CB, DT top list of Lions’ needs by position

Defense (11)

Isaiah Buggs

Position: NT.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $965,000.

Buzz: A late-summer signee and important addition to the Lions defense as a run-stopping nose tackle. Started 13 games, had 46 tackles with one sack and told the Free Press late in the season he wanted to return to Detroit. Buggs won’t have a huge market in free agency — two-down defenders usually don’t, and he did not record a tackle-for-loss last season — but a reunion makes sense for both sides.

Prediction: Signs a two-year deal to stay.

John Cominsky

Position: DL.

Age: 27.

2022 contract: $965,000.

Buzz: The most unsung player on the Lions defense last season, recording four sacks among 30 tackles and spearheading many of their pass rush games up front. There is a mutual interest in returning, and while the two sides met at the combine, the Lions had not made a contract offer as of late last week. Cominsky’s fortunes have changed dramatically since the Lions claimed him off waivers from the Atlanta Falcons last spring. He won’t command top-of-the-market money by any means, but he should have a half-dozen or so serious suitors.

Prediction: Toss up, but Cominsky returns on a multi-year deal.

Austin Bryant

Position: DE.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $965,000.

Buzz: A fourth-round pick out of Clemson in 2019, Bryant played just 33 games in four seasons. Had the only 4.5 sacks of his career in 2021, but was a healthy scratch much of last season after the Lions added Cominsky, Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal and James Houston to the edge rush position. There simply isn’t much playing time available, which means he likely signs elsewhere.

Prediction: Some team will take a flier for his pass rush ability.

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Alex Anzalone

Position: LB.

Age: 28.

2022 contract: $2.25 million.

Buzz: Had the best, healthiest season of his career in 2022, and after playing the past two seasons on team-friendly deals, should have multiple suitors this spring. The Lions have made it known they’d like Anzalone back in 2023. Had 125 tackles and led the Lions in defensive snaps. But they have young linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes in the pipeline, and the cap space to chase an upgrade on the position if they desire. It’s a good off-ball linebacker class with Tremaine Edmunds, David Long, T.J. Edwards among the available free agents.

Prediction: Reunites with one of his old coaches with the Falcons or Denver Broncos.

Josh Woods

Position: LB.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $1.2 million.

READ MORE:Lions special teams could lose key players in free agency

Buzz: Was the Lions’ best special teams player last season and is in line for a substantial raise in free agency. His return seems mostly a matter of whether the Lions are willing to pay top-of-the-market special teams money, or if they’d rather invest those resources elsewhere. With four key special teams players — Chris Board, C.J. Moore and Jackson are the others — slated to be free agents, the Lions have choices to make.

Prediction: The free agent money is too good elsewhere for Woods to pass up.

Chris Board

Position: LB.

Age: 27.

2022 contract: $1.5 million.

Buzz: One of the Lions’ best special teams players last season, but signed thinking he would have a bigger opportunity on defense. That never materialized as the Lions gave Rodriguez and Barnes more time instead. Board is expected to test the market, and there’s a good chance he signs elsewhere even if it’s mostly in a special teams role.

Prediction: I don’t see Board returning.

DeShon Elliott

Position: S.

Age: 25.

2022 contract: $1.1 million.

Buzz: Benched early last season for freelancing too much on defense, but played well down the stretch and benefitted from a midseason tweak in scheme. Though he missed three games with injuries, Elliott had a career-high 96 tackles and one forced fumble. He’s worth re-signing, even at a higher cost, but entering his age-26 season wants a starting role, and the Lions seem poised to enter 2023 with Tracy Walker and Kerby Joseph as their top safeties. The wild card: Walker’s return from a torn Achilles could prompt the Lions to add insurance at the position.

Prediction: Finds a clearer path to a starting role — and more money — somewhere else.

C.J. Moore

Position: S.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $965,000.

Buzz: Lions gave him $800,000 guaranteed to re-sign last spring, then waived him with an injury settlement at the end of training camp. Moore eventually returned and played the special teams role the team envisioned for him all along, but the Lions have a decision to make this offseason with their aforementioned coverage players scheduled for free agency, and Ifeatu Melifonwu under contract as a potential backup safety.

Prediction: Stays on a one-year deal to compete for a job in training camp.

Amani Oruwariye

Position: CB.

Age: 27.

2022 contract: $2.54 million.

Buzz: Coming off a breakout six-interception season in 2021, Oruwariye was one of the Lions’ most disappointing players last year. He committed 11 penalties, allowed a 106.1 passer rating, according to Pro Football Reference, and lost his starting job early in the year. The Lions are in desperate need of cornerback help, and Oruwariye is in desperate need of a fresh start. A parting of the ways is in the best interest of both sides.

Prediction: Signs a one-year, prove-it deal with another team.

Will Harris

Position: CB.

Age: 27.

2022 contract: $2.51 million.

Buzz: Seemed to find his footing in the Lions’ secondary late in the 2021 season, when he moved from safety to cornerback. Finished last season as the starting slot cornerback and could return as a jack-of-all-trades in 2023. The Lions are desperate to upgrade their secondary and that could take on many forms. If they strike out on a new starter to pair with Jerry Jacobs outside, they could try to upgrade the slot position, which would leave Harris looking for work.

Prediction: Sticks around on a one-year deal.

Mike Hughes

Position: CB.

Age: 26.

2022 contract: $2.25 million.

Buzz: Had an up-and-down season in 2022. He seemed miscast as the Lions’ starting slot cornerback early, but played better after kicking outside down the stretch. Allowed a 73.2% completion rate and 126.2 passer rating, according to Pro Football Reference. Lions should be able to find an upgrade in free agency, though Hughes’ versatility is an asset.

Prediction: Finds a new team in free agency, his fourth in four years.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.

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