Last year, Brad Holmes traded up in the first round of the NFL draft to take wide receiver Jameson Williams. This year, he could have the chance to move down.
The Detroit Lions have the sixth pick in what could be a very quarterback-heavy top 10, and with two QB-needy teams picking directly behind them, the Las Vegas Raiders and Atlanta Falcons, if a quarterback falls they could have multiple suitors for their pick.
Maybe the Raiders want to move up to secure their quarterback of the future. Maybe the Falcons want to leapfrog Las Vegas. The Tennessee Titans at No. 11 need a replacement for Ryan Tannehill. And two more quarterback-starved teams, the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, linger in the teens.
I don’t get the sense the Lions are enamored with any of the most likely draft prospects who could be on the board at six. Holmes indicated as much at the NFL’s annual spring meeting last week, and the chances seem slim of an Aidan Hutchinson- or Penei Sewell-like slam dunk falling in their laps.
Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter has character concerns. Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson is more projection than production for now. Positional value could push Texas running back Bijan Robinson into the teens. And if the Lions take an offensive lineman (Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski?) or cornerback (Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon?), that player could begin his NFL career as a backup.
“In ‘21, there was that cluster that I felt pretty confident about at this point, and even going back to last year. I had told you guys that if we had to draft — we were at two, if we had to draft that day, that we felt pretty confident,” Holmes said. “I can’t say that’s the case right now, just being honest. It’s still more work to do. We’ve already done a lot of work, but again, like I talked about the process, we just kind of surrender the results to that, and we’re still going through the process, still more work to do. But we’ll make sure we’ll get to the point where we’ll make the best decision and add the best football player for us.”
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With that in mind, I decided to take a different approach to my fourth mock draft of the spring and look at the trade-down possibilities for the Lions.
This exercise is similar to what NFL teams do when they weigh trade-down options in the weeks leading up to the draft. Typically, there’s a pool of players teams like. The further down they go, the more likely they are to miss out on someone from that group. And how much they like that group factors heavily into their willingness to trade.
Just about everyone I know believes Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. will come off the board in the first few picks.
Young and Stroud are the best quarterback prospects in the draft, and could go 1-2 — in whatever order – to the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans. Anderson is the best, cleanest non-QB prospect and seems like a lock for the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 (unless they trade down, in which case he still probably won’t make it to the Lions at six; if he does, all trade bets are off).
Carter is a wild card. It’s possible the Lions are completely comfortable with his off-field concerns and would run their pick to the podium if he makes it to six. I have my doubts he’s a culture fit in Detroit, and even if he is, I asked one general manager at the NFL’s annual spring meeting last week to name the team most likely to take a chance on Carter in the top 10 and he said the Seahawks, so that’s what my latest mock reflects.
Many people believe Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson will join Young, Stroud, Anderson and potentially Carter in the top five, and given his massive upside and the value of the position, I think the Indianapolis Colts (either at No. 4 or in a trade up one spot) are his most likely landing spot.
Analyst: Detroit Lions drafting Jalen Carter one of the few teams where it could be a home run
If those five players are the first five off the board, the Lions would be left to pick from Wilson, Robinson, Witherspoon, Skoronski and perhaps one or two others — unless one of those quarterback-needy teams is desperate enough to come up for Kentucky’s Will Levis.
Here are four potential trade-down scenarios for the Lions, the framework of what each deal could look like and a prospect the Lions could end taking at each spot in Round 1.
Keep in mind, the Lions have five of the first 81 picks in this year’s draft and eight selections overall. They currently have 69 players on their 53-man roster and may value future draft capital — a pick in the first three rounds of what should be a deeper draft in 2024, for instance — more than acquiring an extra choice this year.
Scenario 1: Vegas, baby
The trade: Lions move down one spot from No. 6 to No. 7 in the first round, and get the Raiders’ fourth-round choice (No. 109 overall) and a fourth-round pick in 2024.
At No. 7 the Lions take: Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
I had the Lions taking Wilson at No. 6 in my first two mocks, so grabbing a couple extra picks to move down one spot and still getting pass rush help for your defense is a win. According to the trade value chart, the Raiders should pay their third-round pick, No. 100, to move up. But the Vegas’ fourth-round pick is nine spots later, the Lions don’t currently have a fourth-rounder and there’s value in adding an extra pick next year.
Admittedly, this scenario seems unlikely. ESPN analyst Todd McShay said in a conference call Wednesday his sense is “that if it’s not a quarterback named Stroud or Young, (the Raiders are) just not interested in not only moving up but even probably taking a quarterback at No. 7.” But there’s a lot of smoke this time of year and new Raiders starter Jimmy Garoppolo is a Band-Aid solution (albeit one on a three-year deal).
Scenario 2: A-town two-step
The trade: Lions move down two spots from No. 6 to No. 8, get Atlanta’s third-rounder (No. 75 overall) and a sixth-round pick in 2024.
At No. 8 the Lions take: Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon
Witherspoon and Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez are widely considered the top two cornerbacks in the draft, and Witherspoon seems like the right fit for the Lions given his makeup and play style. He would compete with the newly acquired Emmanuel Moseley for the starting cornerback job opposite Cam Sutton and give the Lions a feisty young corner who could be an anchor for their secondary in the future.
The Falcons seem content to let Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke compete for the starting quarterback job this fall, but neither player inspires confidence as the long-term solution at the position. Head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot are entering Year 3 of their regime — same as Holmes and Dan Campbell — and they seem far away from contention. If they don’t get a quarterback now, another bad season could put one or both on the hot seat.
Scenario 3: Back-ing up
The trade: Lions move down five spots from No. 6 to No. 11, get Tennessee’s third-round choice No. 72 overall and a second-rounder in 2024.
At No. 11, the Lions take: Texas RB Bijan Robinson
Robinson is one of the most talented players in the draft, a do-it-all running back who McShay said Wednesday is a better prospect than Saquon Barkley was when he went No. 2 to the New York Giants in 2018. The Lions signed David Montgomery in free agency and return D’Andre Swift, but Swift is in the last year of his deal and Robinson has impact potential as a rusher and receiver. He could be for the Lions what Todd Gurley was for the Los Angeles Rams when Lions QB Jared Goff helped that team reach the Super Bowl.
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Tannehill is entering the final year of his deal, has a cap hit north of $36 million and the Titans have no obvious replacement waiting in the wings (given where Malik Willis is in his development). They may be more inclined to trade up for a quarterback than the Raiders or Falcons, though they are light on draft capital with no fourth-round pick. Tennessee would be overpaying, according to the trade value chart, by including its second-rounder this year in the deal, so I structured the trade with an eye towards the future. The Lions would get a more premium pick in 2024, and if they have a big enough pool of players with similar grades, they won’t miss out on anyone by dropping five spots.
Scenario 4: Commanding a premium
The trade: The Lions move down 10 spots to No. 16, get Washington’s second-round choice (No. 47 overall), fourth-rounder (No. 118 overall), a second-rounder in 2024, and give up a sixth-round choice (No. 194)
At No. 16, the Lions take: CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
I like Porter as a scheme fit for the Lions. He’s long, he’s physical, he can run, and the Lions still have long-term needs at cornerback despite overhauling the position in free agency. There are enough teams in the back half of the top 10 and early teens that could be targeting offensive line and/or receiver help, so the Lions still might have options here for their defensive line.
This is the least likely of the four trade scenarios, as Levis doesn’t seem like a mortgage-the-future-for guy and I have my doubts on how badly ex-Lions GM Martin Mayhew and the Commanders will want to move up. The Lions would get a 2024 second-round pick next year in the deal, but it’s possible they’d want even more given how far they’d be dropping.
Scenario 5: Staying put
At No. 6, the Lions take: Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
In this scenario, like the first one, the Lions end up with one of the top defensive talents in the draft, an imposing pass rusher who would complete their defensive line. Wilson has the traits to make scouts drool, and the Lions have the coaching staff to pull out his immense potential.
Full mock draft
1. Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
This is a toss up between Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. The size concerns are real with Young, who is five inches shorter than Stroud. But Panthers GM Scott Fitterer was director of collect scouting with the Seahawks when they hit a home run by gambling on a short quarterback out of Wisconsin, Russell Wilson.
2. Houston Texans: QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Young is the apple of Texans GM Nick Caserio’s eye, but the Texans are left to pick between Stroud and Florida’s Anthony Richardson in this scenario.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Edge Will Anderson, Alabama
If they can trade down one spot, get extra draft capital and still land the best defensive player in the draft, that would be ideal for a Cardinals roster that’s thin on talent.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, Florida
One curve ball to keep in mind: The Colts could make a play for Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson if they don’t like the QB options at four.
5. Seattle Seahawks: DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
Carter has put his legal issues behind him, but questions about work ethic and practice habits remain.
6. TRADE — Tennessee Titans: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
As part of the trade, Dan Campbell and Mike Vrabel have to arm-wrestle, and the winner gets his team an extra sixth-round pick.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: DE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
The Raiders have more pressing needs than defensive end, but pairing Wilson with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones would give them a dynamite pass rush.
8. Atlanta Falcons: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
With the top three pass rushers off the board, the Falcons pivot to finding help for their secondary.
9. Chicago Bears: OL Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
The Bears have a huge need at offensive tackle, and one (or both) of Skoronski and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. should be on the board when they pick.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Eagles GM Howie Roseman doesn’t draft for need and Witherspoon is the best player left on the board.
11. Detroit Lions: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
The Lions can pick from Robinson, the best running back in the draft; Porter, the best remaining cornerback; and the second tier of defensive linemen, players like Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness and Clemson’s Myles Murphy.
12. Houston Texans: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
The Texans need defensive help, too, but pairing Stroud with his former college teammate gives their young quarterback the best chance for success.
13. New York Jets: OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
The Jets are trying to make a run for it with Aaron Rodgers, so they better make sure he stays upright.
14. New England Patriots: DL Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
Van Ness never started a game in college, but can wear multiple hats on the Patriots’ defensive line.
15. Green Bay Packers: Edge Nolan Smith, Georgia
With Rashan Gary coming off knee surgery, the Packers can use this pick to fortify their pass rush.
16. Washington Commanders: CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
Former Lions GM Martin Mayhew knows good cornerbacks when he sees them.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
The Steelers are so good at drafting later-round receivers, they can spend this pick on the best offensive lineman on the board.
18. Detroit Lions: DE Myles Murphy, Clemson
I had Lions taking Murphy at 18 in my last mock draft. He’s not super flashy, but he’s be a nice addition to a pass rush that already includes Hutchinson, James Houston and Josh Paschal.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
Harrison gets the edge over Tennessee’s Darnell Wright because he’s a left tackle and the Bucs have an All-Pro in Tristan Wirfs on the right side.
20. Seattle Seahawks: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
Flowers isn’t big at 5 feet 9, but he’s an ideal slot receiver to pair with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
The tight end class is deep enough that teams may wait on the position, but Mayer is the most well-rounded tight end in this draft.
22. Baltimore Ravens: QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
There’s no end in sight to the Jackson saga. By drafting Hooker at 22, the Ravens can get five years of cheap control on their heir apparent.
23. Minnesota Vikings: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
There are a couple good cornerbacks left on the board in the speedy Banks and Mississippi State playmaker Emmanuel Forbes.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee
Maybe the Jaguars are good with Walker Little protecting Trevor Lawrence, but taking Wright makes sense just in case.
25. New York Giants: CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State
I’m sticking with Forbes here for the second straight mock draft given the Giants’ need at cornerback.
26. Dallas Cowboys: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
I know the Cowboys just traded for Brandin Cooks, but they don’t have a receiver like Johnston on their roster.
27. Buffalo Bills: WR Jordan Addison, USC
I’m tempted to go linebacker here, but Addison is too good a value to pass up.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: OG O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida
Getting someone else to block for Joe Burrow doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
29. New Orleans Saints: DT Calijah Kancey, Pitt
Kancey’s short arms will hurt his draft stock, but his big-time production should keep him in Round 1.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: DL Keion White, Georgia Tech
The defending NFC champs need a talent infusion on defense give their age up front and free agent losses.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
Patrick Mahomes can put it up and let Hyatt go get it.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.