Lions 2023 draft preview: Set at quarterback for now, Detroit could invest in future

Over the next several days, leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, we’re taking a position-by-position look at the Detroit Lions’ roster and evaluating how the team might address each unit. Today: Quarterback.

▶ Current roster: Jared Goff, Nate Sudfeld

▶ Short-term need: Two out of 10

▶ Long-term need: Five out of 10

▶ Top prospects: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis

▶ Day 2 options: Hendon Hooker, Tanner McKee

▶ Late-round considerations: Stetson Bennett, Jaren Hall, Clayton Tune, Dorian Thompson-Robinson

▶ Analysis: Until the Lions win a division and/or a playoff game, we’re going to continue to have this discussion. And honestly, maybe nothing short of a Super Bowl victory completely silences the chatter. Just let me preface the conversation by acknowledging I understand both sides of the argument.

Yes, the Lions can win with Goff. Individually, he’s proven capable of leading a team to the Super Bowl, and regular criticisms of being mistake-prone and having an ineffective deep ball were quieted by his 2022 performance.

But to suggest the Lions couldn’t get better at quarterback, the most important position on the field, is naïve. For as good as Goff was last season — and yes, he was really good — there’s an unbridgeable gap between his performance and production and the league’s elite players, namely Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. We can probably add Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, despite his down season, to that top tier above Goff’s ceiling.

But general manager Brad Holmes put it succinctly at his end-of-season press conference: “I think it’s a lot easier to get worse at quarterback than to get better at quarterback.” So while it’s worthwhile to always have an eye open for an upgrade, it takes a great deal of faith in your scouting and development to swing for a Mahomes, like the Chiefs did when they moved up 17 spots to select him in 2017.

Is there a Mahomes in this draft? We don’t know. Heck, no one knew Mahomes would become the MVP-caliber player he’s turned out to be. At pick No. 6, the Lions likely won’t have a shot at Stroud or Young, who are presumed to be the first two players off the board this year. That leaves Richardson or Levis, who each share some overlap with Allen’s upside coming out of Wyoming due to their big frames, strong arms, but flawed college tape.

If either or both were to make it to six, it would present a conundrum for Holmes for sure. But for as much as we point to the Chiefs and Ravens drafting their QBs of the future in recent years, when they had Alex Smith and Joe Flacco holding down the fort, respectively, those accomplished veterans were significantly older than Goff is now. He won’t turn 29 until October.

All factors combined, it’s why we expect the Lions to stick with Goff as the unquestioned starter through this month’s draft. But even if that’s the case, it’s easily justifiable for the team to invest a early draft asset into the backup position, solidifying a weakness while opening the door on the outside possibility of stumbling into a Hurts-like talent, who can push Goff for the job a year or two down the road.

The option seemingly most capable of meeting that criteria is Hooker, who was spectacular the past two years at Tennessee, throwing 58 touchdowns to just five interceptions, while completing better than 68% of his passes each season. Yes, he’s older (25), and he’s coming off a torn ACL, but if he lingers into the second round, it’s an easy fit for the Lions.

The likelihood of finding a quarterback with starting potential beyond the top-five prospects in this class isn’t impossible, but, as with most years, it’s unlikely.

Bennett, a former walk-on, continues to defy expectations every step of the way and could continue to do so at the next level, potentially developing into a player like Case Keenum, the longtime backup who has performed well when required to start.

Tune might be the Bailey Zappe of this class, a high-volume college producer with enough between the ears to compensate for a lack of elite physical tools.

Or if the Lions want to add a dual-threat to the mix, just to have a change-up on the roster if Goff suffered an injury, BYU’s Hall and Thompson-Robinson, out of UCLA, have some Day 3 upside.

jdrogers@detroitnews.com

Twitter: @Justin_Rogers