A year ago, the thought of it seemed absurd. But that it came up on Day 2 of the Detroit Lions‘ formal offseason program Tuesday is a credit to quarterback Jared Goff and how well he played last season.
With the NFL draft days away, and Jalen Hurts a new bazillionaire, the Lions face the legitimate question of whether to extend Goff’s current contract this summer.
Goff said Tuesday that, no, he is not aware of any negotiations currently taking place, but, yes, he is open to a new deal if the Lions want to make that type of commitment.
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“I mean, of course you’d be open,” Goff said. “It hasn’t been brought to my attention, but yeah, of course, open to anything. Not up to me. I’m a player, I don’t get to make those decisions, and if I did I would have made that decision a long time ago. Give me and everyone of my friends all the money in the world. I just get to play and I don’t know, if that comes about that’d be great, but we’ll see.”
Goff has two years and roughly $52 million left on an extension he signed with the Los Angeles Rams just before the start of the 2019 season.
Things were going swimmingly for him then. The No. 1 pick of the 2016 draft, Goff was coming off a Super Bowl appearance and considered one of the top young quarterbacks in the game. He soon fell out of favor with Rams coach Sean McVay and 17 months later was shipped to Detroit as part of the Matthew Stafford trade.
With his star considerably dimmed, Goff seemed more like a vehicle for the Lions to acquire two first-round picks at the time of the trade than he did any long-term answer at quarterback. The Rams needed to jettison his massive salary to fit Stafford onto their books, and the Lions had four first-round picks in 2022-23 to find themselves a replacement.
But two years later, after he followed a rough first season in Detroit with a Pro Bowl-worthy Year 2, the narrative around Goff and his now-bargain of a contract have changed. Almost no one expects the Lions to take a quarterback with the sixth pick of the first round next week, though they should have options there when they’re on the clock. And if they don’t, questions about how permanent their relationship with Goff is will persist into the future.
At the risk of playing both sides of the fence, I would absolutely seek a new contract if I was Goff and his representatives, and I would politely postpone paying my quarterback $45 million or so a year until 2024 if I was the Lions.
Goff had one of the best seasons of his career last year, competing 65.1% of his passes with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He played close to mistake-free football down the stretch as the Lions won eight of their final 10 games to get into the playoff hunt. In doing so, he solidified himself as a member of the Guys You Can Win With tier of quarterbacks.
For both sides of the extension debate, that is the rub.
Goff is a notch below the Guys You Can Win Because Of tier of quarterbacks — reserved for special talents such as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. That means he’s always at risk of regression. Paying players in that group seems necessary; the goal in the NFL is to win, after all, and many of those quarterbacks have had more than a modicum of success. But paying them too early or too much has historically left teams in the worst spot to be in — too competitive to acquire the draft capital necessary to sustain winning, but not quite good enough to win Super Bowls.
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Goff could ease some of the fears of a backslide with another strong season this fall, though his detractors probably will need to see how he performs without Ben Johnson calling plays before they come around on his worth.
But waiting a year buys the Lions time and provides them insurance — one tenet of general manager Brad Holmes’ philosophy is not to make a decision until a decision is necessary — though there is the risk of Goff’s price spiking in the next 12 months.
Hurts agreed to a five-year contract reportedly worth $255 million Monday, joining Aaron Rodgers in the exclusive $50-million-a-season club. Burrow, Justin Herbert and perhaps Lamar Jackson will be in that stratosphere soon, and Mahomes, whenever he gets a new deal, will be there, too.
Goff seems unlikely to play contractual leapfrog and become the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback no matter how well he plays — a contract in the Kyler Murray range (five years, $230 million) seems more likely — though most thought the same about Hurts 12 months ago.
The Eagles gave Hurts a massive payday a year after trying to trade for his replacement, he earned it by leading the team to the Super Bowl.
“That’s how the league goes,” Goff said Tuesday when asked about Hurts’ contract. “Guys get paid and then 10 more guys will get paid, and then you’re towards the bottom, and then hopefully it happens again and things go like this. And yeah, hopefully I can play for a long time, and play in this league and win games and win championships and do all that stuff, and the money and the contracts all comes with that.”
If Goff can pull a Hurts in Detroit, the Lions won’t care how high his price climbs or what it does to impact their future. They’re flush with young talent now and made moves this offseason that Goff said contribute to the “overwhelming feeling of optimism and excitement for what we think we can do” as a team.
Unless they stun the NFL and draft a quarterback at No. 6 or miserably underperform expectations in 2023, there’s a good chance the Lions will have to pony up for Goff. But until those two outcomes are off the table, it’s in their best interests to wait.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.