The way Daniel Jeremiah sees it, the best-case scenario for the Detroit Lions in next week’s NFL draft is one that seems increasingly unlikely to happen.
Jeremiah said in a conference call Thursday the Lions should be rooting for four quarterbacks to go in the first five picks.
“If that happens, you’re going to get one of the premier players in the draft, one of these defensive players specifically,” Jeremiah said. “That’s what I would be rooting for if I was Brad Holmes there in Detroit.”
While Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Carolina Panthers, the quarterback-needy Houston Texans could be eyeing a different position at No. 2.
If the Texans take a defensive player with their first of two first-round picks, that would push at least one and possibly two of the Big Four QBs out of the top five. Along with Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis are potential top-10 picks, and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker is another possible first-round choice.
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The Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 are unlikely to draft a quarterback with Kyler Murray under contract. The Indianapolis Colts at No. 4 have done extensive work on the top quarterbacks and could trade up to get one. And the Seattle Seahawks at No. 5 are wild cards, with Geno Smith under contract as a returning starter but lingering long-term questions not too dissimilar from what the Lions face with Jared Goff.
Jeremiah ranks three defensive players — Will Anderson (No. 2), Tyree Wilson (No. 4) and Jalen Carter (No. 5) — among his top five prospects, along with Young (No. 1) and Texas running back Bijan Robinson (No. 3).
The Texans, Cardinals and Seahawks have been linked in the pre-draft process to Anderson, Wilson and Carter, who may or may not interest the Lions because of off-field concerns. If all three are gone by the time they pick at six, the Lions could be left to choose between the draft’s top cornerback, offensive lineman or Robinson.
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“It’s tough and hard at this point in time to put any type of percentage on (the likelihood of more than two quarterbacks going in the top five) without knowing what the heck Houston is going to do,” Jeremiah said. “I have no idea. There’s a lot of smoke out there about them not taking one. If they don’t take one and all of a sudden Arizona can’t get out, then we’re looking at two quarterbacks going potentially in the top four or top five, and that means more than likely that one of those quarterbacks is going to get down the board even further (to) nine or 10. At that point in time I think we start seeing some action take place.”
Holmes acknowledged in his pre-draft news conference Thursday there is mystery at the top of this year’s draft due to the quarterbacks. The Lions even brought Stroud and Hooker in for pre-draft visits to get a better handle on them as prospects and the quarterback market in general.
“We’re doing the best that we can (to figure out where they’ll go),” Holmes said. “You don’t have the absolute crystal ball, you’ve just got to just do all the research.”
Asked about his interest in drafting a quarterback, Holmes said he plans to add one to his roster sometime between now and training camp, but gave no indication the Lions are in the market for one at six.
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Along with Goff, the Lions have just one other quarterback, Nate Sudfeld, currently under contract.
“I mean, of course (we could draft one),” Holmes said. “It’s a position on the football field that you got to have. And I’m not trying to be a smart ass about that, but yeah. I mean, we’d like to add another one. Whether it’s through the draft, whether it’s after the draft, just like I talked about to you guys probably in Arizona that some of these (free agent) quarterbacks, they’re waiting till after the draft to see what teams do. Guys that have had a lot more experience. That’s always a possibility, but we won’t be pinched, we won’t be forced to do anything that doesn’t line up and doesn’t match. But we’ll get, by training camp, when we get in there, we’ll make sure that we’ll have another quarterback at some point.”
The Lions have not drafted a quarterback since Brad Kaaya (sixth round) in 2016, before Holmes took over as GM. And there is a steep drop off in talent at the position after Hooker this year.
Still, ESPN analyst Jordan Reid said Brock Purdy’s success as a seventh-round pick with the San Francisco 49ers last year could tempt teams to spend a late-round pick on what essentially becomes a lottery ticket.
Purdy, the final pick of last year’s draft, went 5-0 as a replacement for Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo in the regular season last year and led the 49ers to the NFC championship game. He completed 67% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions and has supplanted Lance, the No. 3 overall pick in 2021, as the 49ers’ presumptive quarterback of the future.
Historically, few late-round picks find success as quarterbacks. Of the six other quarterbacks drafted in the sixth round or later since 2020, four are out of the league, a fifth has changed teams and the sixth, Skyler Thompson, went 1-1 as a backup with the Miami Dolphins last year, completing 57% of his passes with more interceptions (three) than touchdowns.
But for teams that find a Purdy, Ryan Fitzpatrick (seventh round, 2005), Tyrod Taylor (sixth round, 2011) or more famously, Tom Brady (sixth round, 2000), the roll of the dice can be well worth it.
“There’s no reason for you not to take a late-round quarterback this year even if you’re one and two are set,” Reid said. “Those late-round guys are like lottery tickets to me. And Brock Purdy was a great example of that and we’ve seen guys in years past that have gone on to be those Day 3 players that end up turning into starters, and even if they don’t turn into starters for you, they end turning into assets, too.
“I think with these late-round quarterbacks I think we’re going to see a record number be selected just so you can have that QB3 as insurance or you could end up having a Brock Purdy type of situation where you end up hitting on a late-round player.”
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
Feeling a draft?
What: 2023 NFL draft.
When/where: April 27-29; Kansas City, Missouri.
TV: ABC, ESPN, NFL Network.
Lions’ picks (with overall picks in parentheses): Round 1 — No. 6 (6), No. 18 (18); Round 2 — No. 17 (48), No. 24 (55); Round 3 — No. 18 (81); Round 5 — No. 16 (152), No. 23 (159); Round 6 — No. 6 (183), No. 17 (194).