You think you were surprised at what the Detroit Lions did on Thursday night?
There was Jahmyr Gibbs, the Alabama running back they took with the No. 12 pick in the NFL draft (after trading down from No. 6).
“It was pretty shocking to me,” Gibbs said in an introductory video conference call.
Where did he think he would be taken?
“I thought in the 20s, really,” he said.
Listen, I don’t mind drafting the player Gibbs was at Alabama — a fantastic, explosive player who should give this offense another exciting weapon. He makes this team better. But taking him that high?
It’s like the Lions put a cherry on top of a half-baked cake.
IN THEIR WORDS: In RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ‘got the best overall athlete in this draft’
STILL GOING: Who did the Lions draft: Tracking every selection they have in 2023
Then, the Lions used their second pick of the first round — No. 18 overall — to take Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell, who was generally projected to go in the second round.
“Everything kind of flew out the window,” Campbell said Thursday night, “and I’m a Lion and that’s the only thing that matters. I’m so damn proud to be a Lion.”
My translation: I think he was shocked as well.
To recap: The Lions used two first-round picks — rare, precious pieces of quasi-gold — on players generally not rated that high, and the reaction around Detroit was: What the frick?
The main problem is not who they took — both are talented, and I have little doubt that they will help this team.
But the issue is when they took them: Did they get the best value?
There is an axiom in the current NFL draft. Never take a running back in the first round for several reasons:
1. You can find productive backs in later rounds
2. Seriously, running backs’ careers are SHORT, which diminishes the long-term value of the pick.
3. Running backs, to be blunt, are NEVER considered worth a first-round pick.
Shoot, even the kids know this.
GRADING THE FIRST PICK Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 is just too high
GRADING THE SECOND PICK: LB Jack Campbell fills a need, but may be a reach
“Didn’t know I would get picked as high as I did,” Gibbs said, “because you know running backs don’t really get picked as high, in this new-age era of NFL draft.”
Some feel the same way about linebackers.
Even assistant head coach and running backs coah Scottie Montgomery, before he has even coached in a game for the Lions, acknowledges it. And he never even played the freakin’ position.
“Y’all know I’m brutally honest, and I played linebacker and there’s been a knock on this position for a long time as far as the value of it,” Montgomery said. “So, from that standpoint, you know, I’m excited as a former linebacker.”
One surprise after another
All of Thursday night was a surprise. The Lions went into this draft with no glaring needs.
By all accounts, the Lions were enamored with Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon. But he was taken by Seattle at No. 5.
So, they faced a decision at No. 6. They could have bolstered their offensive line with Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski or Ohio State’s Paris Johnson, Jr. Or they could have risked everything and taken Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter — a guy who carries more baggage than your average Delta flight.
They could have taken Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez. They could have taken Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson — a tremendous talent who is long and agile but hadn’t played since November due to a broken foot.
Ot they could have taken Bijan Robinson — generally the top-rated running back in the draft — but they clearly liked Gibbs better.
So they traded back to No. 12 and picked up another pick in on Day 2 — No. 34, the third pick in Friday’s second round.
OK, that’s shrewd in theory.
Suddenly, they were sitting with five picks in the top 81.
All of this made complete sense.
Until they made the pick.
Wait. They took a running back?
“Well, I think you’ve got to look at it several ways,” Montgomery said.
“He’s bringing a value also in the passing game; that’s a large, large value. … We placed a high value on what he could do for our team from an explosive standpoint, create more explosives, but not being limited to creating those explosives in the running game.”
OK. I’ll buy some of that.
They can line him up as a running back or even in the slot — in theory, he’s more than a running back. In theory.
But that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have taken him at No. 18. Robinson was gone, and two running backs haven’t gone in the top 20 since 2018.
Of course, Lions GM Brad Holmes could care less what the rest of the NFL is doing.
“When you come across a special player … you just get him,” he said.
Plenty of concerns
I have agreed with darn near everything Holmes has done to this point.
He deserves credit for transforming this roster. He has built a team that a team that should win the NFC North in 2023.
Give him kudos for that.
He has proved that he can uncover talent. Has an eye for it. And I have little doubt that Gibbs and Campbell will be good players.
He has been willing to make bold, unusual moves that actually work out — see last fall’s deal that sent T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota.
But he is not infallible — see the trade for that brought Trinity Benson from Denver to Detroit for 10 receptions in two seasons
But, in general, Holmes has done a fine job.
And it’s fair to wonder how this whole Jameson Williams thing is gonna turn out. It’s not exactly trending in the right direction — yet another first round pick (No. 12 overall last spring) that makes you start to wonder.
I have little doubt that these players will produce. In fact, I have no doubt that the roster is better now with them. Plug-and-play is the term: The Lions needed help at linebacker and got the one with the most accolades last season. The Lions needed speed and explosiveness in their offense and got an athletic freak. So those are good things.
My nagging concern: Even if Holmes doesn’t care how the NFL values players, he is not picking in a vacuum. And I have this nagging feeling that he blew an opportunity here. That when it all shakes out, he wasted a first-round pick. I’m left wondering if he could have rolled the dice and taken Gibbs at No. 18. And then Campbell at No. 34 — if not Nos. 48 or 55, deep into the second round.
But, clearly, he didn’t.
He took the unusual route — the route the rest of the NFL doesn’t usually take in its march toward groupthink — and got the two guys he wanted. Guys he loved.
But did that love cloud his big-picture judgment?
Look, Holmes has proved he can improve a bad football team. He has proved that he can take obvious players at the top, such as Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, and uncover gems late in the draft, such as linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez.
But the final piece — creating a Super Bowl champion — is the only thing that matters at this point.
That takes something more than just finding guys he loves. That takes more than accumulating talent.
That takes a whole lot of nuance and cunning and maneuvering while building a roster, and squeezing everything out of every opportunity.
After this draft — after these unusual picks — it’s fair to wonder if he squeezed everything he could have out of this first round.
Contact Jeff Seidel: jseidel@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @seideljeff.
To read Seidel’s recent columns, go to freep.com/sports/jeff-seidel.