The Detroit Lions could be good this year. Like, really good.
The Lions have rebuilt their roster to the point they will enter the season as the favorites to win the NFC North for the first time since the division was formed 21 years ago. They’re young, deep and talented, but they’re not without their warts.
With the NFL heading off on its summer hiatus, now feels like a good time to re-examine what the Lions accomplished this offseason, and where they stand with training camp on the horizon next month.
Here are four reasons to believe the Lions will win their first playoff game in 32 years this winter, and four roadblocks that could keep them from reaching their potential.
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It all starts up front
Teams that are strong in the trenches usually end up winning lots of games, and the Lions have one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
They return four of five starters from last season, when all four played at a Pro Bowl level. Center Frank Ragnow was the only Lion who made the team as an original selection, but right tackle Penei Sewell went as an alternate and left tackle Taylor Decker and left guard Jonah Jackson were also on the alternate list.
Veteran right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai should be back in the starting lineup this fall, and if the unit plays close to its potential, the Lions will be dangerous on offense. The line played a huge part in Jared Goff’s success last season and paved the way for a running game that churned out the 11th most yards in the league.
But the line has injury concerns
Vaitai didn’t play a snap last season because of a back injury, which came two years after he broke his foot and had a rocky debut in Detroit. The Lions fortified their line this offseason by signing do-it-all interior backup Graham Glasgow, but Vaitai’s health is hardly their only concern.
Ragnow said this spring the toe injury that’s hampered him the past two seasons is inoperable. The Lions gave him most of the spring off and will manage his practice reps in season, but as tough as Ragnow is, there’s no guarantee he makes it through 17 games.
Decker has had his own foot problems in the past, though he said he has enjoyed his healthiest offseason in a long time. Decker missed time in 2021 with a freak finger injury, and Jackson did the same last year. The group seems poised for another big season, but the Lions have not had their projected starting five together for a single snap the past two years — one injury could derail their work.
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Goff has found his comfort zone
The quarterback is coming off what he said was the best season of his career. He threw 29 touchdowns against seven interceptions last season and committed only one turnover in the final nine games.
Goff still has his shortcomings. He wasn’t great on the road last season, especially in cold weather locales late in the year, he struggles under pressure (like most QBs) and he’s not equipped to go Patrick Mahomes and carry a team to the Super Bowl. But he seems at ease entering his third season in Detroit and he’s surrounded by a top-notch coaching staff that has done all it can to bolster his confidence.
In a conference short on high-end quarterback talent, Goff is well-positioned for success.
Depth at receiver could be a problem
Amon-Ra St. Brown put up remarkable numbers last season — 106 catches for 1,161 yards — when you consider he was the Lions’ only real receiving threat most of the year. Kalif Raymond was the only other Lions receiver to catch more than 38 passes, and the Lions traded top tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Minnesota Vikings at November’s deadline.
St. Brown was slowed for two games — posting just five catches for 22 yards — by an ankle injury and concussion. The Lions scored six points in those losses to the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys, and St. Brown’s supporting cast doesn’t look a whole lot different now than it did last fall.
Raymond is back, Josh Reynolds is healthy and the Lions added veteran Marvin Jones as insurance, but Jameson Williams has a six-game suspension to serve to start the season and there’s no one else in the receiving corps that strikes fear in opponents. The Lions are banking on contributions from rookies Jahmyr Gibbs (a D’Andre Swift replacement) and Sam LaPorta (the new Hockenson), but their passing game remains extremely St. Brown-dependent.
The secondary should be significantly better
The Lions aggressively attacked the weakest area of their league-worst defense this offseason, signing cornerbacks Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley and safety/slot defender C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency. With safety Tracy Walker on track for a training camp return from a torn Achilles tendon, the Lions could open the season with an entirely new secondary from their 2022 finale.
Neither Moseley nor Walker practiced much this spring, but the impact of the Lions’ defensive upgrades was evident in offseason workouts: Goff had a harder time completing passes and finding open windows to throw in.
Defensively, the Lions still have some feeling out to do with all the new faces — rookies Jack Campbell and Brian Branch will play a role in the back seven, too. But Aaron Glenn’s unit ranked among the league leaders in takeaways and scoring defense in the second half of last season, and the influx of new talent should push it to even greater heights.
Is there enough pass rush?
As deep as the Lions look on defense, they still lack a dominant pass rush presence up front. The Lions ranked 19th in sack percentage last season and don’t have the kind of proven game-wrecker that most of the league’s top teams deploy. Of the four teams that reached the conference championship game last season, three had players who topped 15 sacks: Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers (18½), Haason Reddick of the Philadelphia Eagles (16) and Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs (15½).
Maybe Aidan Hutchinson becomes that player for the Lions. Hutchinson had a stellar rookie season with 9½ sacks, but 6½ of those came in three games; he had nine games where he did not record a quarterback hit. The Lions don’t have a dominant interior presence, either, though they’re hoping Alim McNeill steps forward in 2023.
With John Cominsky, Charles Harris, James Houston and Romeo Okwara joining Hutchinson and McNeill up front, the Lions have plenty of potential in the pass rush department. But until they prove their impactful seasons weren’t a fluke, questions about the group as a whole will remain.
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The schedule is favorable
The Lions play 10 games against opponents from the NFC North and NFC South this year, two of the league’s most mediocre divisions. They probably won’t win all 10, but there should be enough victories in there to get a good start on a playoff spot.
The Green Bay Packers are a wild card with a new quarterback in Jordan Love, the Vikings seemed primed for regression after their good fortune last season (they went 11-0 in one-score games), the Chicago Bears will be improved but had the worst record in the NFL in 2022, and no team from the NFC South had a winning season.
The schedule makers didn’t do the Lions any favors by having them open the season against the Chiefs on a night the defending champs will unveil their latest Super Bowl banner, but they get a few days extra rest before their home opener against the Seattle Seahawks and play three NFC South teams by mid-October.
All in all, it’s a chance to get off a good start.
Just hope things don’t come down to a field goal
The kicking game has been an adventure for the Lions the past two seasons, and this year might not be any different. The Lions passed on the chance to address the position in the draft and via free agency, and instead re-signed Michael Badgley to a one-year deal and added Riley Patterson (via trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars) and Parker Romo (from the XFL).
Teams don’t hold three-man kicking competitions because they like their depth at the position, and both Patterson and Romo, who has the strongest leg of the group, struggled at times this spring. Badgley is coming off a solid season in which he made 24 of 28 field goals (including all four of his attempts with the Bears), but he hasn’t made a kick longer than 53 yards since 2018.
The Lions are 3-7-1 in games decided by three points or less the past two seasons, and if a game comes down to the foot of whoever wins the kicking job this year, everyone will be holding their breath.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.